Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


Windspeed
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Gotta clear the deck or have something pop closer to home. Anything meaningful developing in the central or eastern Atlantic right now is recurving IMO. Way too many escape routes.

That’s why I can’t put hope in the African cherry that is supposed to become a threat. Look at all the shit out ahead of it. 

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Gotta clear the deck or have something pop closer to home. Anything meaningful developing in the central or eastern Atlantic right now is recurving IMO. Way too many escape routes.

this is why have more storms out there will increase the chance of a hit in the future. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Amped said:

12z euro  was the most disappointing run of the seasons it showed 4 tcs all duds and all fish storms. Lets  watch sheared messes dance around the central Atlantic, before inevitably recurving towards Europe. Sounds like lots of fun.

 

how did the euro do with the past storms ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

how did the euro do with the past storms ?

Read an article recently that compared models for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Euro was the worst in all lead time categories even less than 72 hrs. Not saying it will not verify but the track record is off this year so far. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TradeWinds said:

Read an article recently that compared models for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Euro was the worst in all lead time categories even less than 72 hrs. Not saying it will not verify but the track record is off this year so far. 

Can you post a link? I know it's been struggling with TCG but I would find it a bit hard to believe the routinely best track model is now the worst this season. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TradeWinds said:

Read an article recently that compared models for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Euro was the worst in all lead time categories even less than 72 hrs. Not saying it will not verify but the track record is off this year so far. 

It did struggle with Isasis  and Fay.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

ECMWF ensemble consensus is still the best for tracking, period. Sure, they still miss. But there is a reason we still chew nails awaiting their rums.

What good is it when half the ensembles show a recurve in the middle of the Atlantic and half show a monster storm in the Caribbean heading to Florida?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What good is it when half the ensembles show a recurve in the middle of the Atlantic and half show a monster storm in the Caribbean heading to Florida?

You got something better? That's the rub. Even the best model guidance is sometimes difficult in its usefulness. That's where good old fashioned synoptic-scale forecasting helps. And that can still be off. There's a reason those folks at the NHC are the cream of the crop. Yet they're still not perfect. Neither is the best modeling based on the most powerful super CPU clusters. Hopefully you can just afford some patience and let it play out / unfold.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Can you post a link? I know it's been struggling with TCG but I would find it a bit hard to believe the routinely best track model is now the worst this season. 

I'll have to do a search and find it. It was in one of these threads. I believe the Laura thread or this one. UKMET was leading if I remember. One reason models might be off this year is due to less input resulting from covid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

I'll have to do a search and find it. It was in one of these threads. I believe the Laura thread or this one. UKMET was leading if I remember. One reason models might be off this year is due to less input resulting from covid.

UKMET was the best with Laura. I posted the Albany stats in that thread. GFS outperformed ECMWF for Laura, not sure if that's true for the season as a whole though. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

More than track (which has certainly had issues) I think the euro has really struggled with intensity. This current MDR mess aside, I think I’ve seen it miss TC genesis and under forecast intensification. Isaías, Hanna, and Nana all come to mind.

Yep agreed. Weird that it had a bonafide hurricane with Paulette on the 00z run last night near Bermuda but it has since kinda gone back to a middling tropical storm type low. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...