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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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18Z continues the pattern of every  other run being  more active. The weak storm at  12z in the se carib is  now a monster east  of  the virgin islands, and  paulette which had dissipated at  12 z gets trapped north of  bermuda.

 

slp33.png

 

Notice  now paulas remains are nw  of  bermuda  instead  of  ne and the set  up for the ridge is for  it to be stronger. the  monster east  of  the  virgins needs to be watched

slp33.png

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4 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

Umm. No. 

There is no NHC "projected track" for waves that aren't even invests. Just a blob they scribble on the 5 day outlook. Gosh, it curves a little north. 

I was just comparing on an apples to apples basis the same scribbled blob from the previous update. The little north curve can make a major difference downstream.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This season is such a low energy bust. There's not even been a decent fish storm with nice satellite presentation.

Just goes to show seasonal forecasting  has a  long way to go. I was reading the  NHC  disco on little  paul and they mentioned how "Parched" the atmosphere  is. everything  is  parched and sheared even though the east  pac  continues to cool. I still think sept20-oct  10 might  offer something  interesting but  i also think oct 10 is about the end  of the season.

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31 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Just goes to show seasonal forecasting  has a  long way to go. I was reading the  NHC  disco on little  paul and they mentioned how "Parched" the atmosphere  is. everything  is  parched and sheared even though the east  pac  continues to cool. I still think sept20-oct  10 might  offer something  interesting but  i also think oct 10 is about the end  of the season.

Sandy happened after October 10th

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It’s the Hype...without the hype it’s not as much of a disappointment.   But when the big guns are telling ya to watch out...and then things aren’t lining up so well, it makes you realize that we don’t know as much as we may think? 
 

Just like last winter in SNE...it was being forecast as a potential humdinger, and it was a full on Ratter.  The combo of the hype and then the Rat is a double whammy lol.  

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s the Hype...without the hype it’s not as much of a disappointment.   But when the big guns are telling ya to watch out...and then things aren’t lining up so well, it makes you realize that we don’t know as much as we may think? 
 

Just like last winter in SNE...it was being forecast as a potential humdinger, and it was a full on Ratter.  The combo of the hype and then the Rat is a double whammy lol.  

Shhhh...... 88 is watching.

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34 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

No US landfalls? I guess you arent  counting the  18Z GFS with a  major over the  US virgin islands and a  building  positive  NAO which means  if that  monster  is still there  in 8 days  it  aint OTS.

slp32.png

That would be the one to watch. The other one near Bermuda should be a nice wave maker if it gets to major status. 

PNA expected to tank which means strong ridging building out east. 

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7 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Just goes to show seasonal forecasting  has a  long way to go. I was reading the  NHC  disco on little  paul and they mentioned how "Parched" the atmosphere  is. everything  is  parched and sheared even though the east  pac  continues to cool. I still think sept20-oct  10 might  offer something  interesting but  i also think oct 10 is about the end  of the season.

Surely that is a divergence worth investigating. We all know that water vapor is the preeminent greenhouse 'gas', so a parched atmosphere just seems curious given the well above average temperatures we've seen. Does it mean the winds off Africa are unusually dry?

 

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6 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s the Hype...without the hype it’s not as much of a disappointment.  

Hype > Disappointment

60 years old and whether it is watching weather (hurricanes or blizzards), sports, news, going to parties or concerts, even waking up and checking email, it is the rocket fuel that powers the motivation vehicles every day of my life. Give me crazy highs and horrible lows, spare me mediocrity please. Rather be excited about possibilities that never occur, than apathetic about anything.

Waiting for that giant beautiful perfect Cat 5 spinning in the Gulf of Mexico this year but never making landfall or knocking out anyone's power for more than a couple hours. Yet we all feel it from Texas to Key West and have big waves and personal stories to tell. Imagine the Hype > Disappointment while these forums and chasers go crazy with posts! Oh yea!

Bring it on, Hype first, then at the last minute Disappointment (and very sincere relief).

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