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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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10 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

First northeast impact, tropical storm, Second northeast impact, hurricane, Third northeast impact, Major hurricane? Sounds like 2020 to me!

Well to be accurate...Isaias was a tropical storm when it came into/just west of SNE, but your point is well taken.  We’ll see in a couple weeks? 

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31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well to be accurate...Isaias was a tropical storm when it came into/just west of SNE, but your point is well taken.  We’ll see in a couple weeks? 

The signal is there for a late recurve, and it's a bit more concerning than usual. 

I feel like I've seen this before. Not sure if this is the GFS picking up on extra-tropical transition and a spreading out of the wind field? Or if this is just typical of pole-ward moving hurricanes gradually weakening under decreasing SST.

hCbMO7I.gif

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Euro and GFS rather dead. Still think a  mini burst  might  occur sept20-oct10 unless we  have switched to a winter like  pattern by  then. its not  going to be hyper active with a dried  up MDR. JB is claiming we are  in the  active  phase  of the  MJO. How much nore  unfavorable  is  it  in the  MDR when its  not  favorable?

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The para is interesting in that it is building heights across the northern maritimes into a Canadian block by Sept 5th. That is a classic long-tracker pattern that typically results in repeating WATL landfalls. Also develops an Azores cutoff that breaks down 700 hPa flow off NW Africa and the MDR moistens with precipitable water substantially as we approach peak. This will have to be watched for pattern trends in coming runs as that would suggest a busy September.acf35bd6b9838d4c12aa04f7928c6e78.gif2e36ef2d031f58ccdd858c167ec67ad5.gif

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10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The para is interesting in that it is building heights across the northern maritimes into a Canadian block by Sept 5th. That is a classic long-tracker pattern that typically results in repeating WATL landfalls. Also develops an Azores cutoff that breaks down 700 hPa flow off NW Africa and the MDR moistens with precipitable water substantially as we approach peak. This will have to be watched for pattern trends in coming runs as that would suggest a busy September.acf35bd6b9838d4c12aa04f7928c6e78.gif2e36ef2d031f58ccdd858c167ec67ad5.gif

The para has been consistent  on a storm forming in the long range. The exact location is yet to be determined. 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

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18 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

What the hell is wrong with the genesis on these models?

I have no clue what's wrong this year, its like models think its a raging El Nino. they're cranking out tons of model canes in the EPAC and can't find a storm in the ATL unless its already formed.

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The only metric that seems off from seasonal forecasts at this point is accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). Though we're above normal, considering number of storms, an ACE of 42.1 seems low. However, bulk ACE generation is almost always in the months of September and more recently October when we experience a higher number of concurrent hurricanes. September hurricanes generally take tracks that allow them to last longer too, hence higher rate of ACE production.

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