2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cptcatz]

Finally some action on the CMC

[hlcater]

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Finally some sub 1000mb lows in the basin on the CMC at hr 180.  

GFS and Euro show  nothing

[Windspeed]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ensembles all the way right now. You’ll get burned waiting for a surface reflection to pop on the operational guidance. The signal is there. Watch the central Atlantic wave and definitely watch the wave about to roll off Africa.

 

Speaking of ensembles...

[vortex95]

It's not always the best practice to rate an AEW for TC potential later while it's still overland because its convection is mostly diabatically driven.  This is what we see with the wave on the west African coast now.  Also, looking at the WV and 250 mb analysis, there is TUTT not far to the W.  So we can see why the global models don't do much with this wave.

One other thing, due to parallax of GOES-16, deep convection in this part of its view will look more intense than it really is.
 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

GFS and Euro show  nothing

Ensembles this far out

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Speaking of ensembles...

Lot of weak TS in there

[Windspeed]

Lot of weak TS in there

You don't really focus on strength, you focus on signatures. That there are numerous possible tropical lows means potential increases for something to be somewhere favorable or unfavorable. At ~200 hrs all your looking for are potential low placements. Then you go back and analyze the possible upper environments for those areas. At some point an operational will start picking up on any one sig. At that range it is still a crapshoot, however. You're just looking for more potential area of interest and then analyze the pattern to keep looking for something to rear its ugly head in the ops.

 

[Floydbuster]

The CMC seems to be picking up on the weak wave in the Central Atlantic, as it enters warmer waters and a more moist environment. Shows it becoming a hurricane striking Southwest Florida in a week or so. The wave leaving Africa now becomes another hurricane striking the Virgin Islands.

It's possible, there are definite entities there right now, and both are looking slightly more organized today.

[Windspeed]

Andy commenting on the EPS and Caribbean potential in the ~200 hr range.

 

Note the powerful upper ridge being modeled over the Caribbean. Granted, the operationals do not have a TC under this feature yet. They may of course never. However, the EPS ensembles do and also have that upper ridge. Depending on TC placement, of course, that would support a powerful TC from the S. Bahamas to the NW Caribbean barring land interaction. Obviously this doesn't mean Jack Squat if there's no TC. But that's why you watch the ensemble packages for potential vorticity. At any rate, with MJO coming aboard in that range, this is all we've got until the ops do eventually start getting into closer range to better resolve something and we can see how those runs will start panning out.

[cptcatz]

We got a lemon

[Prospero]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

We got a lemon

Just had Storm Fitters come by yesterday to give an estimate on some storm protection for windows that we have always used plywood on. We pay $100.00 a month for storage space mostly for the plywood that is ten years old. We can't leave it in our backyard shed as termites and ants would eat it up. But at more than $12K over ten years, it is very expensive plywood. Glad we had it for Irma though.

Bummer that they are 8 to 10 weeks out for delivery if we approve the estimate...

But we still have the plywood.

Here in Gulfport, Florida we have received about a 1/4 inches of rain in the past few weeks. This is supposed to be our rainy season, and it is almost over except the passing tropical storms. We need really rain. A couple miles north of us, they get rain every day. UGH.

BTW, this forum keeps me entertained, even when nothing is brewing! Better to be bored with friends than watching radar all day alone and waiting for a thunderstorm to pop up.

 

[TradeWinds]

20 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Just had Storm Fitters come by yesterday to give an estimate on some storm protection for windows that we have always used plywood on. We pay $100.00 a month for storage space mostly for the plywood that is ten years old. We can't leave it in our backyard shed as termites and ants would eat it up. But at more than $12K over ten years, it is very expensive plywood. Glad we had it for Irma though.

Bummer that they are 8 to 10 weeks out for delivery if we approve the estimate...

But we still have the plywood.

Here in Gulfport, Florida we have received about a 1/4 of rain in the past few weeks. This is supposed to be our rainy season, and it is almost over except the passing tropical storms. We need really rain. A couple miles north of us, they get rain every day. UGH.

BTW, this forum keeps me entertained, even when nothing is brewing! Better to be bored with friends than watching radar all day alone and waiting for a thunderstorm to pop up.

 

Our rainy season is so dependent on the ridge. Last year was very dry in Orlando and all the storms were pinned on the West coast...stronger east wind. The WAR this year brings light winds and is allowing the east and west coast breezes to move well inland. We are very wet this summer. 

[Prospero]

26 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

Last year was very dry in Orlando and all the storms were pinned on the West coast...stronger east wind.

The east wind has been in our forecast for weeks, still waiting. It is "supposed" to start raining in the afternoons again this week.

Orlando area is one of my favorite places for watching storms. Any direction from a good balcony view at any of many comfortable hotel rooms in late afternoon they are very spectacular. Forget Disney and Universal (where you might get drenched for 15 to 20 minutes at a time), it is a storm watching visual paradise, especially in late afternoon/early evening.

You got more of Isiais than we did for sure!

[Floydbuster]

For what it's worth, the ICON model now also shows our two new hurricanes, one rapidly strengthening crossing Western Cuba (similar path to Charley) and the other gradually strengthening moving through the Leeward Islands.

 

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

For what it's worth, the ICON model now also shows our two new hurricanes, one rapidly strengthening crossing Western Cuba (similar path to Charley) and the other gradually strengthening moving through the Leeward Islands.

 

lol using the ICON for tropical systems

[Floydbuster]

19 minutes ago, yoda said:

lol using the ICON for tropical systems

 

Well the GFS now shows it becoming a hurricane striking the Yucatan and Mexico in 8-10 days, too. So you have the CMC, GFS and ICON. I'm just trying to put all the cards out on the table. I did say "for what it's worth". 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

 

Well the GFS now shows it becoming a hurricane striking the Yucatan and Mexico in 8-10 days, too. So you have the CMC, GFS and ICON. I'm just trying to put all the cards out on the table. I did say "for what it's worth". 

CMC is down in Nicaragua and Honduras... and nothing shows up behind it in the MDR.

GFS is a TS into the Yucatan and hurricane into Southern Mexico... also with no real tropical systems behind it in the MDR

[hlcater]

Y’all forget 2017 hadn’t really gotten started by this point and had a similar progression of mostly junk until late august.

[yoda]

00z EURO has signs of SLP... two of them in the MDR... but ends up doing next to nothing with them and keeps them very weak (>1008mb)

[yoda]

2 AM TWO has double lemons

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Josephine, located just over a hundred miles north-northeast 
of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kyle, located 
several hundred miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

1. A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central tropical 
Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is 
producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
This system is expected to move westward at about 20 mph during the 
next few days, and that fast speed is likely to limit development 
while the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward 
Islands today and Monday and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea 
on Tuesday.  After that time, the system is expected to move more 
slowly westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and 
upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the 
middle to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa is producing a 
large area of cloudiness and showers.  This wave is forecast to 
move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and some 
development will be possible by the middle to latter part of the 
week as environmental conditions become more conducive while the 
system is over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[Windspeed]

Long range European ensemble continues up...

 

[Baltimorewx]

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Long range European ensemble continues up...

 

Let’s hope that 945 in the gulf doesn’t pan out 

[brentrich]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We tried to tell ‘em lol

If you’re taking the surface depiction of these operational models to heart you’ll get burned in this setup. The Pacific activity via the MJO/CCKW make those models project certain parts of the Atlantic look more hostile than they may actually be. The impulses are there and are running toward a more favorable environment. 

Nothing is a lock yet and this isn’t even really the start of the more prolific activity IMO, but August isn’t going quietly. This season has actually been pretty impressive in how consistent the activity has been. That’s part of the reason I raised my seasonal forecast to 25/13/6.

I'm sorry but I'm newbie but what does 25/13/6 means? Does it mean 25 name storms / 13 hurricanes / 6 major hurricanes? 

[ldub23]

At  least  JB is excited.

 

 

Joe Bastardi

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

29m

 

The raging Weatherbull is loose on http://Weatherbell.com premium showing the unnamed feature that will lash Cape Cod the islands with tropical storm force wind and rain And then it shows WHY THE REAL HURRICANE SEASON IS ABOUT TO BEGIN, ( IMO)BUCKLE UP

[thunderbolt]

9 minutes ago, brentrich said:

I'm sorry but I'm newbie but what does 25/13/6 means? Does it mean 25 name storms / 13 hurricanes / 6 major hurricanes? 

Yes

[Windspeed]

[wizard021]

Ukmet develops both nhc areas .

[wizard021]

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.5N  39.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 19.08.2020   72  14.5N  41.4W     1009            30
    0000UTC 20.08.2020   84  15.8N  45.9W     1007            35
    1200UTC 20.08.2020   96  16.5N  50.1W     1007            35
    0000UTC 21.08.2020  108  17.5N  53.2W     1006            36
    1200UTC 21.08.2020  120  18.8N  56.0W     1004            40
    0000UTC 22.08.2020  132  19.4N  58.8W     1002            41
    1200UTC 22.08.2020  144  20.2N  61.7W     1000            42

 

[wizard021]

 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 18.1N  84.3W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 22.08.2020  144  19.1N  85.2W     1006            26