cptcatz Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 If that forecast verifies it's gonna be a LONG next three months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: If that forecast verifies it's gonna be a LONG next three months! It can shut off as quick as it started too...we’ve seen that before also. Nothing is a certainty. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: It can shut off as quick as it started too...we’ve seen that before also. Nothing is a certainty. very unlikely that will happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 5, 2020 Share Posted August 5, 2020 2020 hurricane season setting records. Experts expect above-normal activity to continue https://www.pix11.com/news/national/2020-hurricane-season-setting-records-experts-expect-above-normal-activity-to-continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 I would not be surprised to see a Gulf hurricane or two this season. In fact, it's probably likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 39 minutes ago, Prospero said: I would not be surprised to see a Gulf hurricane or two this season. In fact, it's probably likely. Well, that's pretty easy to accomplish when one has already happened before August 1st. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Calderon said: Well, that's pretty easy to accomplish when one has already happened before August 1st. Kind of like saying we there will probably be a blizzard this winter in South Dakota? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 The long-range GFS has now consistently shown a significant hurricane in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in the 300+ hrs range for several runs now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 6 hours ago, nycwinter said: very unlikely that will happen... Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: The long-range GFS has now consistently shown a significant hurricane in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in the 300+ hrs range for several runs now. 9 consecutive runs now, all at the same time period. That would be quite a fail if it doesn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 9 consecutive runs now, all at the same time period. That would be quite a fail if it doesn't verify. Already stocked up here, but going to Sams Club for COVID teacher supplies and basics tomorrow anyway. This year it is all being about being a step ahead. Can never have enough toilet paper! LOL May buy another battery backup device for our CPAPs. A battery will not last long, but sure sucks when a 10 minute outage disrupts a good sleep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m looking forward to a Midwest blizzard chase. I sure miss the snowstorms myself. Staying up all night watching the snow fall past the streetlights and studying the snow drifts as they got deeper, wishing for "snow days" when I was kid, dreaming of being a meteorologist when I grow up. Even now at 60 years old, I still dream of being a meteorologist when I grow up. Now in Florida I stay up all night waiting for an outflow boundary to kick up a thunderstorm outside with amazing lightning or follow a tropical system for a week hoping we get "almost" destructive winds and at least interesting storm surges and big waves. (Two weeks without power and A/C after Irma has me much more conservative than before). Oh the hail storm in Colorado Springs in 1969 or 1970, what a thrill! Three feet of hail in our yard in August, the sound of the cashing and the roar I'll never forget. The flooding as it melted very quickly... Several hurricanes and tropical storms, ice storms in Michigan, spring floods in Virginia, so on. So many storms, so many happy memories. Yea, I am a sicko. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: 9 consecutive runs now, all at the same time period. That would be quite a fail if it doesn't verify. Yeah. We don't get many fake storms anymore. In fact, I'm surprised the EURO and CMC haven't latched on yet, but lately the EURO has been disappointing with genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, Prospero said: I sure miss the snowstorms myself. Staying up all night watching the snow fall past the streetlights and studying the snow drifts as they got deeper, wishing for "snow days" when I was kid, dreaming of being a meteorologist when I grow up. Even now at 60 years old, I still dream of being a meteorologist when I grow up. Now in Florida I stay up all night waiting for an outflow boundary to kick up a thunderstorm outside with amazing lightning or follow a tropical system for a week hoping we get "almost" destructive winds and at least interesting storm surges and big waves. (Two weeks without power and A/C after Irma has me much more conservative than before). Oh the hail storm in Colorado Springs in 1969 or 1970, what a thrill! Three feet of hail in our yard in August, the sound of the cashing and the roar I'll never forget. The flooding as it melted very quickly... Several hurricanes and tropical storms, ice storms in Michigan, spring floods in Virginia, so on. So many storms, so many happy memories. Yea, I am a sicko. We call ourselves people here But seriously sir, getting a thrill out of extreme weather is probably much more common here than elsewhere, I'll bet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 6 hours ago, Floydbuster said: The long-range GFS has now consistently shown a significant hurricane in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in the 300+ hrs range for several runs now. 00z GFS tonight shows no hurricanes at all during its entire run... there is a tropical disturbance late in the run but it mills around the Yucatan peninsula and never really develops into much of anything due to land interaction... though it tries to develop as the run ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 00z EURO shows nothing in the tropical department either tonight except for a small SLP north of the islands (Leeward) at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 6, 2020 Author Share Posted August 6, 2020 00z GFS tonight shows no hurricanes at all during its entire run... there is a tropical disturbance late in the run but it mills around the Yucatan peninsula and never really develops into much of anything due to land interaction... though it tries to develop as the run endsThe fantasy Yucatan system is the same disturbance the GFS has consistently resolved in the 240+ hr range. Again, too far out to take seriously, but at least notable in the OPs consistency to keep an eye on that general monsoonal trough + wave interaction, and favorable upper 200 hPa vorticity for potentially something of interest around the mid-to-late month in the WATL. Interestingly, the fantasy EPAC system could interfere as a powerful hurricane could create less favorable downstream upper flow over Mexico into GOM. At any rate, far enough out that literally nothing might develop IRL in both basins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 06z back with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 6, 2020 Author Share Posted August 6, 2020 Uh oh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 Similar https://twitter.com/noaacomms/status/1291390225479020547?s=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 6, 2020 Author Share Posted August 6, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 22 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: We call ourselves people here But seriously sir, getting a thrill out of extreme weather is probably much more common here than elsewhere, I'll bet! Another 1995 or 2005 with record US landfalls is going to make insurance go through the roof for everyone! Hopefully there won't be another China [sheetrock] syndrome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 7, 2020 Author Share Posted August 7, 2020 We have a new lemon in the MDR, west-southwest of the Verdes. Not the best environment that becomes less conducive in a few days. But who knows... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 7, 2020 Author Share Posted August 7, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 7, 2020 Author Share Posted August 7, 2020 The 0z ECMWF ensembles are very temporary with any development out of the new lemon. All tracks of the weak area of low pressure get squashed. However, deeper into the forecast period they do want to develop an AEW that has yet to exit the African continent. This would be in the 7-10 day range coinciding with an increasing favoribility in the MDR and leading into better upper 200 hPa vorticity across the western MDR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 2 hours ago, Windspeed said: What is the main cause of dry air in the MDR this season? Just SAL or some other climatologic factor? Or maybe that is just normal this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 7, 2020 Author Share Posted August 7, 2020 What is the main cause of dry air in the MDR this season? Just SAL or some other climatologic factor? Or maybe that is just normal this time of year?Somewhat normal. June into early August tends to have SAL outbreaks due to strong sub 700 hPa level easterly wind bursts off of NW African continent. Azores SPHP and intensity of 500 dm heights in the Eastern Atlantic are generally at their strongest. Interestingly there is also correlation to SAL, the West African Monsoonal flow (WAM) and increased numbers of AEWs. In some respects, SAL is just a byproduct between WAM and EATL ridging; and although SAL helps to keep many AEWs in check through the MDR, it doesn't always persist into September and October. Generally by mid-to-late July, the orientation of Azores influenced ridging has shifted into stronger western Atlantic ridging (WAR) pattern, especially with a negative ENSO, and a positive AMO and NAO. Sometimes earlier in late July, sometimes later into late August. An overall suppressed regime of the Atlantic sub tropics to ITCZ should be shifting in the next week or two to one much more favorable for TCGs. I should add that despite the strong SAL outbursts back in July, we still had AEWs go on to develop. Even if Gonzalo eventually succumbed to a hostile environment, Isaias did not. All this pretty much leads to the idea that when atmospheric favoribility does increase through the MDR, it's likely to get very active. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 On 8/5/2020 at 10:56 PM, Floydbuster said: Yeah. We don't get many fake storms anymore. In fact, I'm surprised the EURO and CMC haven't latched on yet, but lately the EURO has been disappointing with genesis. Agreed... though one positive for the early Euro on Isaias... it sensed a struggle from start up to ~FL...in other words it was so weak it kind of knew conditions were not very good. That's my take away when models disagree, especially longer range=caution. That's one reason was very broad in the NYC forum topic starter outlook. Didn't want to overplay the hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 Webb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2020 Share Posted August 7, 2020 The 40 days between Aug 20- Oct1 appears to be the main stretch in hurricane season. Almost every active season has had above average ACE in that stretch. Really can't say much about the season by what happens before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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