cptcatz Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Looks like maybe Irma v2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 9 hours ago, Windspeed said: The next AEW exiting the coast already had a large wave breaking sharp axis, but now with deep convection associated with a strong MCS embedded within its inverted surface trough. This is the wave the EPS and ECMWF op runs have been consistently developing the past few days into a formidable TC. I'd say based on appearance, that's looking ever more likely. It will still have some dry air established to its north in pockets across the subtropical Atlantic, but the easterly SAL burst is way out ahead of it and may not be as much a factor. Also, the moisture envelope with this wave is quite large. If TCG occurs in the MDR this weekend into early next week, this would be Isaias. The "I" storms are frequently in the historical record as being Cape Verde or deep MDR systems east of the Antilles, but generally well into September. Here we may very well experience an "I" storm in July of 2020, yet it will not break the mold. As the Euro would have it, our next TC might end up being a powerful long-tracking Cape Verde hurricane. Obviously, not to count chickens before they hatch as even if a very advanced AEW, it's still just a low-embedded wave that could flop and not get named. Nah, who am I kidding? This thing is a beast... That’s the best looking wave coming off Africa at this time of year I can remember. If it were peak season I would expect a long track major. It’s just so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 24, 2020 Author Share Posted July 24, 2020 NHC isn't playing around with the large wave / disturbance near the Verdes. Developmental chances already up to 40%. We'll probably have a cherry tomorrow. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo, located less than 500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hanna, located over the western Gulf of Mexico a little more more than 200 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas. 1. A tropical wave located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produced an area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected move westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days, and some gradual development of this system is possible by early next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 24, 2020 Author Share Posted July 24, 2020 This is banter'ish, but is it really? lol... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 That’s the best looking wave coming off Africa at this time of year I can remember. If it were peak season I would expect a long track major. It’s just so early. If this is a climate trend we are in big trouble.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 24, 2020 Author Share Posted July 24, 2020 Our new Cape Verde disturbance has been designated Invest 92L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 24, 2020 Author Share Posted July 24, 2020 In case anyone is curious, the next named "I" storm, Isaías, is pronounced "ee-sigh-ee-us". It's the Spanish name for Isaiah submitted by Argentina to the WMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 I don't mean to get too ahead of ourselves but there's ANOTHER massive wave about to move off of Africa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: I don't mean to get too ahead of ourselves but there's ANOTHER massive wave about to move off of Africa... What if there’s so many they just keep the moisture at a decent level the whole time... no dryness ever. We’ll just have this road of moisture, paved by the cyclones, for the cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 25 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: What if there’s so many they just keep the moisture at a decent level the whole time... no dryness ever. We’ll just have this road of moisture, paved by the cyclones, for the cyclones. True... maybe we get saved by some overturning/upwelling though if hurricanes keep going over the same paths of water 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Just the fact that it's still late July and we're already looking at the letter "I"...mercy. At this rate we might burn through half the alphabet before mid August, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, yoda said: True... maybe we get saved by some overturning/upwelling though if hurricanes keep going over the same paths of water Could you elaborate on that a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Could you elaborate on that a bit? Imagine, for example, 5 hurricanes develop off the CV islands... if they all travel over the same path over and over, the water heat content won't be as high as if they all went over water that had not yet been disturbed by prior tropical systems. Perhaps I am overthinking... but I think that's what would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 15 minutes ago, yoda said: Imagine, for example, 5 hurricanes develop off the CV islands... if they all travel over the same path over and over, the water heat content won't be as high as if they all went over water that had not yet been disturbed by prior tropical systems. Perhaps I am overthinking... but I think that's what would happen Yeah that was talked about a lot during the Irma-Jose-Maria trio in 2017 that all went over the same area in a short amount of time. It's upwelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 At this rate our September long-tracker could be named "Nana". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 10 hours ago, yoda said: Imagine, for example, 5 hurricanes develop off the CV islands... if they all travel over the same path over and over, the water heat content won't be as high as if they all went over water that had not yet been disturbed by prior tropical systems. Perhaps I am overthinking... but I think that's what would happen 10 hours ago, cptcatz said: Yeah that was talked about a lot during the Irma-Jose-Maria trio in 2017 that all went over the same area in a short amount of time. It's upwelling. So the theory is that the water not being as warm would mean the the hurricanes that came later in the "chain" wouldn't be as strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 25, 2020 Author Share Posted July 25, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Something is festering over the Bahamas, and I do not like it. That water is bath water. Shear is decreasing over the system. Convection has been sustained since DMAX. There is a circulation at least from 500mb to 850mb and developing further at 925 to 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 23 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Something is festering over the Bahamas, and I do not like it. That water is bath water. Shear is decreasing over the system. Convection has been sustained since DMAX. There is a circulation at least from 500mb to 850mb and developing further at 925 to 850mb. Be honest....You love it Jimmy lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Be honest....You love it Jimmy lol... lol, I love tracking systems, but this seems out to sea due to the troughing over the Eastern USA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 25, 2020 Share Posted July 25, 2020 Too bad the Bahamas system won't waste a name so we don't have to risk hearing the media butchering "Isaias" for two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 MJO could possibly get into the Maritime and more suppressed off the African coast,seems like anything the forms will be home brewed or the tropics will probably be dormant of any tropical genesis into the 2nd week of August and several days after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Sure dont look very active with out much of any Kelvin Waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 On 7/17/2020 at 2:20 PM, Floydbuster said: Don't be surprised if we get a 90 mph hurricane or something by mid-August around the Caribbean/Gulf, then a Cat-1 or 2 fish storm off Africa before the powder keg is lit. Well, I was too late with the timing. Came sooner than I expected. Now the question becomes...is 92L that fish storm before the match drops in the gasoline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 27, 2020 Author Share Posted July 27, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 29, 2020 Author Share Posted July 29, 2020 Interestingly the new AEW near the CVs has decent model support for short-term TCG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 29, 2020 Author Share Posted July 29, 2020 The current AEW southeast of Cabo Verde has a vigorous and compact mid-level vortex. Though 92L was a larger and perhaps more impressive wave, it struggled maintaining any MCS with its mid level vort and failed to genesis before reaching a more hostile environment in the MDR. This wave on the other hand may do better entering the MDR if it can concentrate convection and close itself off at the surface. It certainly looks decent at the moment. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 Uhm... This may get classified in short order. May not do anything crazy on a forecasted NW track into marginal waters and a more stable airmass. Still pretty suggestive ASCAT: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Just now, Windspeed said: Uhm... This may get classified in short order. May not do anything crazy on a forecasted NW track into marginal waters and a more stable airmass. Still pretty suggestive ASCAT: Looks like a TS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Uhm... This may get classified in short order. May not do anything crazy on a forecasted NW track into marginal waters and a more stable airmass. Still pretty suggestive ASCAT: Looks like a TS...Yet the 8am disco...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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