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WxWatcher007

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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And here comes the lemon...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Five, located less than 200 miles west-southwest of 
Bermuda.

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far northern Gulf of 
Mexico are associated with a nearly stationary surface trough. Some 
slight development of this system is possible before the trough 
moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday.  The 
system is then forecast to move northeastward and emerge offshore 
of the Carolinas on Wednesday, where enviromental conditions are 
expected to be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO 
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under 
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Blake

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It’s really important to see if the areas of vorticity along that trough can consolidate in the next 72 hours. Having something relatively organized at the mid levels will be important as there won’t be a lot of time over sufficiently warm water. 

GFS/GEFS continue trending toward offshore development and a bit of a coastal huggers.

 

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pe3YpO6.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Five, located less than 200 miles west-southwest of 
Bermuda.

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far northern Gulf of 
Mexico are associated with a nearly stationary surface trough. Some 
slight development of this system is possible before the trough 
moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday.  The 
system is then forecast to move northeastward and emerge offshore 
of the Carolinas on Wednesday, where environmental conditions are 
expected to be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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Trend has definitely been toward more of a coastal hugger with the mean further offshore, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty over whether this can develop south enough for tropical characteristics. EPS seems to think so. 

76656781.gif?0.8462366397008533

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Eh...room for improvement but something. I’d wager that might be a compromise split between wetter west tracks and east tracks that leave us dry?

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23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Eh...room for improvement but something. I’d wager that might be a compromise split between wetter west tracks and east tracks that leave us dry?

I see some room for improvement. The trend has been closer to the coast. Probably irrelevant at the end of the day whether it’s tropical or not. It’s probably a messy sprawling low either way.  What matters is if there’s a kicker that keeps this further offshore later in the period.

Doesn’t seem like a phantom progression at this point. I think we have a legitimate chance at some weak tropical/subtropical impacts. Virtually all the guidance has something at this point. 

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12z suite was more muted with less offshore development and a nontropical inland low. Still, likely a coin toss on whether development occurs. It’ll all depend on what can pop off the coast, where, and how soon.

AKZJ0G1.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Five, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.

1. Recent satellite and radar observations indicate that a small low 
pressure system has formed within a broader area of low pressure 
near the northern Gulf Coast. The low is producing a few showers 
near its center, and some slight development is possible before it 
moves inland early Monday. The broader low pressure system is 
forecast to move northeastward and could emerge offshore of the 
Carolinas later this week, where environmental conditions are 
expected to be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

 

ETA: Now designated as Invest 98L.

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 060236
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020

...EDOUARD FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 56.9W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was
located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 56.9 West. Edouard is
moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and an even 
faster motion in that general direction is anticipated during the 
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little significant change in strength is forecast before Edouard is 
forecast to become post-tropical on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Not a whole lot of change this morning. The small low is pretty well defined inland but not sure that continues. We wait to see if it gets offshore and where. 

39268045.gif?0.33482830867314506

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98L has been impressive all day, firing convection and maintaining a well defined center. You’d think this were a tropical depression with banding near the core lol. 

Some enhancement obviously in the overall environment, but impressive nonetheless.

YhNSiuS.jpg
 

80421952.gif?0.3860265502676703

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yep—won’t be much sleep during the peak. 
 

There was a program on recently,  I believe on Nova,  and stated there is going to be a tendency for Canes to track further West,  closer to the East Coast, and maintain a higher intensity,  in the decades ahead based on the warming climate. Take what you want from that.  

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Mentioned  a couple weeks ago regarding Atlantic SSTs increasing at a decent clip.

Check this out,  in terms of ocean energy for later in the season.   

 

 

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y'all best deliver or I'm going to be sad and angry and hold you accountable.  

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15 minutes ago, H2O said:

y'all best deliver or I'm going to be sad and angry and hold you accountable.  

Get ready to pull the plug on impacts from 98L in the MA lol.

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This is a pretty alarming signal to say the least. The stronger-than-normal West African Monsoon has consistently been modeled since the spring and actually played a part in the Saharan dust outbreak in late June. My concern is once we head toward August and the ITCZ shift northward, it may lead to a Cape Verde wave train which historically spells trouble in the Atlantic. 

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11 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

This is a pretty alarming signal to say the least. The stronger-than-normal West African Monsoon has consistently been modeled since the spring and actually played a part in the Saharan dust outbreak in late June. My concern is once we head toward August and the ITCZ shift northward, it may lead to a Cape Verde wave train which historically spells trouble in the Atlantic. 

Yeah. I mean all of the signs point to a high end season, and this is near the top of the list. One thing to watch as well is the upper level pattern, which will not only favor warming over the MDR over the next few weeks, but in the longer term, may steer tropical waves and well defined systems closer to the coast. 

Looking at the CSU forecast update, their odds for a major hurricane landfall are significantly higher than the historical average. 

Probably like last year, we’re mostly “quiet” in the MDR until mid August, and then we’ll wonder when the shelling will end. I’m as bullish as I’ve ever been. 

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If we don't get legit tropical this year into DC and Baltimore this will be a failure of a year.

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3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

98L now a cherry on the NHC 5 day.

NHC is popping the proverbial tropical cherry for all of us. It's happening. Also NAM decided not to fringe you guys.

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Good lord. This would be wild if verified. 
 

 

it's been desert-level dry in the MDR for almost a decade+ now. Just think of this as a reversion to the mean. The only problem here is that we have scraped out some robust years like 2017 with a very poor MDR. Often back-to-back as well. The GHG warming is moving the tropical developments further north thus reducing the importance of the MDR as a ACE generator.

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