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WxWatcher007

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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Good to see tropical discussion!

This is about the time of year where SAL is most prevalent, and it lasts through much of July and even into August. However, as the focus of the basin shifts from the western Atlantic to MDR, SAL diminishes. That’s for a variety of factors, including the increase of tropical waves helping to moisten the MDR. 

Even in active seasons strong SAL outbreaks happen. This year, the relevant parts of Africa have seen wetter than normal conditions in the last month or so, described in the tweet below.

So while the SAL looks potent in this latest push off of Africa, it’s unlikely to put much of a check on what all environmental factors suggest will be an above average season. 

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95L

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system is located about 
300 miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts.  Showers and 
thunderstorms have recently become a little better organized near 
the center, and the system could briefly acquire subtropical 
characteristics tonight and early Monday while the low moves 
northeastward over the warm waters of the Gulfstream.  By Monday 
night and Tuesday, however, the system is expected to weaken when 
it moves back over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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SAL probably going to shut down the MDR through mid July. Wonder if that allows SSTs to just cook more?

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47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

SAL probably going to shut down the MDR through mid July. Wonder if that allows SSTs to just cook more?

Rather than do a post, my man @Windspeed has it covered. Only thing I would add is that I agree the upper level pattern favors continued warming in the MDR. Western Atlantic may be viable in early July, but I like the period less than what we had in early June. 

Basin is already pretty warm. Everything still points to a very active season. 

I’m not sure what my plan would be for a chase given the coronavirus situation. I know Josh is basing himself in the south. That makes it driveable, but doesn’t really deal with the hotel situation.

2020173atd26.png


2020173at.jpg
 

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

That particular model animation shows Azore's ridging below the 700 hPa layer of the atmosphere backing down over the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Surface-to-mid level pressures weaken slightly, retreating poleward. This eases low-level easterlies off Africa, which, in turn, limits SAL propagation westward off Africa. Additionally the ITCZ would become less suppressed south and gain some latitude within that pressure regime. This would help increase instability along the MDR, with better low-level convergence for convection, especially if the MJO is in a favorable phase aloft. Tropical wave tracks would also gain some latitude with the decrease in pressure heights, and be able to tap into moisture feed from the ITCZ.

 

 

We generally see this pattern of strong Azores ridging back down in August, not early July. Typically a beefy late Spring to middle Summer eastern Atlantic Azores ridge is why we generally see SAL and too amped a low-level easterly jet to favor any MDR development. That, and upper level shear and vorticity is not yet favorable. At any rate, the pattern in the animation above may coincide with a favorable MJO [see below] and a relaxation of upper level wind shear across the Caribbean and lower MDR as well. 44da54f287ccfb1bb24ba08fe3a07146.jpg&key=c3d46da7c848de703330f30a437cf778a6f95f2f2a789f7fafd73ab0ff5bc06a7c53dc374add7ad5369d8f64b77cc2eb.jpg&key=5169f1b149672cc48fc73b2b2b3a2326b7de87f4be39cdf5511e74811456f26149a3566a09627574a8f8326c6522b170.jpg&key=debedfa44a8b70bfc2f4855646b4260c605546624a16b095c74ef90a16400718

 

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
405 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the development 
of a Subtropical Depression over the northwestern Atlantic.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low 
pressure system located about 350 miles southeast of Cape Cod, 
Massachusetts, has continued to get better organized today, and a 
subtropical depression appears to be forming.  If these trends 
continue, advisories will be initiated on this system at 500 PM AST 
this afternoon. This system is expected to move eastward and 
northeastward away from the United States during the next couple of 
days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 222040
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Four Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042020
500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST...
...FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 65.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Four
was located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. The
subtropical depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 
mph (15 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through 
tonight. A motion toward the northeast is expected on Tuesday and 
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible tonight and early Tuesday, 
and the subtropical depression could briefly become a subtropical 
storm. Slow weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon or 
evening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Dammit. Ninja'd.

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST...
...FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 65.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

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4th named storm :o 

 

Tropical Storm Dolly Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042020
1215 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020

...DOLLY FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Subtropical 
Depression Four has strengthened, and maximum sustained winds are 
now 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.  In addition, the wind 
field has contracted, and the system has made a transition to a 
tropical storm.

A Special Advisory on Tropical Storm Dolly will be issued by 100 PM 
AST (1700 UTC) to update the intensity forecast.


SUMMARY OF 1215 PM AST...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 61.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brown
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1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I can’t believe no one started their post by saying, “Why, hello, Dolly!”

I love Dolly Parton. 

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This is a fantastic technical discussion on why the upper level environment is likely to favor an active peak of the season and perhaps early start to MDR activity. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is a fantastic technical discussion on why the upper level environment is likely to favor an active peak of the season and perhaps early start to MDR activity. 
 

 

Saw that this morning. Most of it went over my head but my main takeaway was after we get Mummy dusted it’s open season and expect days and days of CAT5OMG!!!

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4 hours ago, H2O said:

Saw that this morning. Most of it went over my head but my main takeaway was after we get Mummy dusted it’s open season and expect days and days of CAT5OMG!!!

Basically, the rising motion over the MDR and Africa brought by the CCKW/MJO enhances the ability of 1) stronger waves to roll off of Africa, and 2) develop in the MDR and long term moisten the environment for future waves. 

So you’d essentially have more convection forming over Africa and the MDR as wind shear drops. That’s a recipe for activity, and could be the default pattern during the peak of the season. 

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Basically, the rising motion over the MDR and Africa brought by the CCKW/MJO enhances the ability of 1) stronger waves to roll off of Africa, and 2) develop in the MDR and long term moisten the environment for future waves. 

So you’d essentially have more convection forming over Africa and the MDR as wind shear drops. That’s a recipe for activity, and could be the default pattern during the peak of the season. 

The wind shear aspect is what I would key in on. The stuff showing it’s been wetter in Africa bodes well for waves

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2 hours ago, H2O said:

The wind shear aspect is what I would key in on. The stuff showing it’s been wetter in Africa bodes well for waves

Given the cool neutral ENSO we see right now, shear looks to be lower than normal in the MDR and Caribbean during the peak.

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Looks like the Tropics will remain quite quiet for a few more weeks. Might have to wait to close to peak season to really see what this season has in store. 

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4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

After a spectacular drop in the 3.4 region, an equally spectacular rebound.

nino34.png

Looks strikingly similar to my portfolio! ;)

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 041450
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 68.7W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five 
was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 68.7 West. The 
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 
km/h). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected by tonight, 
followed by further acceleration on Sunday. On the forecast track, 
the center of the depression will move near or just northwest and 
north of Bermuda tonight and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in strength is likely, however the system 
could become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical Depression Five could cause gusty conditions on 
Bermuda and over the nearby waters later today or tonight. The 
Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Gale Warning. For more 
information please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.

RAIN:  Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce total rain 
accumulations of less than 1 inch with possible isolated maximum 
amounts of 4 inches in and around Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky 

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Alright so while TD 5 churns out in the middle of nowhere I’m perking up at some increasingly interesting potential behind it.

The operational and ensemble guidance has been insistent that in just a few days an area of low pressure will develop near or just off the Carolinas. 

ZngTr2H.png
nl9NXGF.png

Today’s Euro op was probably most robust yet, taking an area of energy from the Gulf and popping it off the coast relatively quickly. It becomes a sprawling low.

DrJm4oU.png
 

GFS is similar but interestingly keeps it over land. The trend I’ve seen is closer to coastal development a la Euro and Ukmet. 

Note the environmental conditions are much different from when Bertha rapidly developed off the SC coast in late May. 

1h73Tuj.png
 

Here is the same region today.

uAkw7MJ.png
 

This is interesting for the east coast, particularly the Mid-Atlantic, because as a low develops, tropical or not, a ridge looks to flex a bit, trapping the low near the coast before a kicker arrives. Verbatim that means rain and wind by the end of the coming week along coastal sections of the region. 

90825624.gif?0.4353938123050516
 

24666516.gif?0.3975356043444983

I’m still skeptical of any development, but with virtually all the guidance hinting at a low forming and overall environmental conditions, there looks to be a window for development in a climatologically favored area. 

FKJXKj2.png

jul_11_20.png

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