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WxWatcher007

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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1 hour ago, Amped said:

So after trending south for a  several days the GFS trends back north again.   Looks like some convection convection over the northern Yucatan might be causing some issues.  Either way it's a complicated mess.   I think land interaction, wind shear, and a large strung out storm would tend to favor a weaker end solution.   

I agree but could certainly have a named system on our hands 

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EPS also has a number of lows that drift north and strengthen considerably. How much land interaction there is while in the BOC seems to be an important factor right now. That area of the Gulf has the warmest SSTs. 

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Alright, it's the first day of the season and we have a cherry in the Gulf. Ensemble guidance is fairly robust, moreso than the operational guidance. There's a lot to unpack on the Gulf environment, but it looks like we're still on track to see 1 or 2 basin systems as a result of the CCKW/MJO/CAG. 

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92L looks damn impressive this morning.  Would be a candidate for a healthy tropical cyclone.

 

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Big differences between the CMC and the GFS EURO in the short range.   GFS and EURO take it back to the south while the CMC stalls near the NW Yucatan.   

 

The convective blob appears to be advancing north north west at the present time.  If it doesn't die out or turn back to the west in the next 6-12 hrs the CMC is going to end up being right.

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56 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

92L looks damn impressive this morning.  Would be a candidate for a healthy tropical cyclone.

 

If it can avoid land interaction disrupting the LLC once it emerges over the BOC, it’ll end up being quite robust IMO. 

As Amped said, a lot of short range differences on the guidance.

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90%. Possible depression tonight. 
 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico show that 
the area of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the 
Yucatan peninsula is gradually becoming better organized.  The 
disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche 
later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive to support development, and a tropical depression 
or storm is likely to form tonight or Tuesday.  The system is then 
forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern 
Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week.  Interests 
along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress 
of this disturbance as tropical storm watches or warnings could be 
required for a portion of this area later today or tonight. 
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely 
to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El 
Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. 
For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products 
from your national meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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27 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

Would it be historically unprecedented for there to be a June Major Cane in the gulf of Mexico? 

It would be rare, but not unprecedented. There were two Gulf major hurricanes. One in 1957 (Audrey), and one in 1966 (Alma).

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4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

12Z UKMET which the NHC favors. Anyone know why?

05933086-E2DF-4473-9A1D-03BF0D4A044C.png

NHC seems to be betting that the low doesn’t get driven as deeply into Mexico by the CAG flow, and the low finds the weakness in the ridge and meanders northward. It’s a close call. I don’t think anyone knows what will happen.

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^Euro then eventually brings the center ( still at 988 mb right over Harrisburg. Our area probably won't see much impact from this but fun to track for sure .

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

^Euro then eventually brings the center ( still at 988 mb right over Harrisburg. Our area probably won't see much impact from this but fun to track for sure .

We’ll see what kind of weakness is in between those ridges. Always hedge against MA tropical but the Gulf can be an efficient way to get remnants.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We’ll see what kind of weakness is in between those ridges. Always hedge against MA tropical but the Gulf can be an efficient way to get remnants.

Current guidance has a weakness through day 4 but after that steering gets weak for days.....with the low potentially getting caught in noman's land waiting for a trough to pick it up. Maybe if the system  speed picks up some in the gulf and more northerly we can luck in to something ...otherwise it probably will get absorbed by a trough way west of us after day 9 or 10 or so . 

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This is one of the stranger things I've seen the Euro do.   Turn a gulf coast hurricane into a Miller B and deepen it quite a bit over land.   Kind of reminds me of TS Erin over OKC, just looks bigger and longer lasting.

 

m3yOW3U.gif

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24 minutes ago, Amped said:

This is one of the stranger things I've seen the Euro do.   Turn a gulf coast hurricane into a Miller B and deepen it quite a bit over land.   Kind of reminds me of TS Erin over OKC, just looks bigger and longer lasting.

 

m3yOW3U.gif

I saw that this morning and it was so weird. Look at the winds aloft days after landfall lol. 

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We have Cristobal 

Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1115 AM CDT Jun 02 2020

Corrected storm ID in header

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Three has strengthened 
into Tropical Storm Cristobal.  The maximum winds are estimated to 
be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1115 AM CDT...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 92.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

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