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WxWatcher007

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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14 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

WxWatcher007 Peak (Aug 20-Oct 20) Forecast 
Number of Named Storms: 11
Number of Hurricanes: 9
Number of Major Hurricanes: 5

Numbers so far: 14/7/3

Cat 3 now. Update reflected above. Not the best forecast. Not the worst.

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Cat 3 now. Update reflected above. Not the best forecast. Not the worst.

notgreat.gif.7a034083793038c33b46f60e98570f52.gif

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2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

So, am I reading it right? A 4 mile eye? REALLY? 

Yeah it’s a pinhole. 

It was bound to happen. These are some of the warmest waters on earth right now at the surface and at depth, and there’s virtually no shear. Gulf coast needs to watch out.

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah it’s a pinhole. 

It was bound to happen. These are some of the warmest waters on earth right now at the surface and at depth, and there’s virtually no shear. Gulf coast needs to watch out.

I cannot imagine how Josh Morgerman is going to get into the eye of that thing! It is like a tornado in a way!

 

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5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I cannot imagine how Josh Morgerman is going to get into the eye of that thing! It is like a tornado in a way!

 

I don’t think there’s a lot of time to get to Mexico, if travel is even allowed right now. Louisiana is a much easier trip, though the coastline is extremely surge prone. I’m less sure today what I’ll do but I think I’m sitting this one out.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t think there’s a lot of time to get to Mexico, if travel is even allowed right now. Louisiana is a much easier trip, though the coastline is extremely surge prone. I’m less sure today what I’ll do but I think I’m sitting this one out.

Did they have one in the exact same spot earlier this year?

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Marco and Gamma were very close but not nearly as strong obviously.

This one actually looks like it has potential for us.

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1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

So, am I reading it right? A 4 mile eye? REALLY? 

Yes. This is a true pinhole eye. 

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1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

I guess I'll wake this tread up. Looks like models are taking the remnants to our NW. I can live with that.

Its all about the position of that High over SE Canada. GFS has it further north, so we get some impact. Most other models have it pressing down over the area so the remnant low tracks further west.

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20 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

18z 3k nam has Delta hit 899mb in the Gulf. #seemslegit

    FWIW, when the final NAM upgrade was in the final stages of validation, the developers realized that changes made to improve forecasts of the marine stratus layer along the west coast were causing crazy intensification of TCs.      Since the NAM is used way more for forecasting ceiling and visibility than it is for TCs, and since there was little wiggle room on the schedule for further development, it was decided to leave the model configuration as is.       Certainly makes for some fascinating tropical forecasts.......

 

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Looking at the map of the central LA coast, that is about as good of a place as anywhere in the country to take a hurricane hit.  It is all unpopulated marshland.  Lafayette may get smacked, but hopefully Delta is in the process of winding down by that point.

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On 10/6/2020 at 11:37 AM, midatlanticweather said:

I cannot imagine how Josh Morgerman is going to get into the eye of that thing! It is like a tornado in a way!

 

He will find a way, if he chased it.

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17 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m surprised no one is talking about Epsilon. If nothing else, I think it means this year is just one cyclone off from the 2005 record year.

Does a great job of adding to my numbers. If it can become a major today I’d be golden :weenie: 

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With Epsilon peaking at major intensity and no new development yesterday, we have closed the book on the forecast period. The backdoor cover put me right where I needed to be. I under forecast the number of named storms but edged just within my range for hurricanes and majors. A- forecast overall. 

WxWatcher007 Peak (Aug 20-Oct 20) Forecast 
Number of Named Storms: 11
Number of Hurricanes: 9
Number of Major Hurricanes: 5

Final Numbers: 14/8/4

 

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10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Scary track on the GFS for Honduras for future Eta.  As we learned from Mitch, flooding there can be catastrophic.  

Western Caribbean shows no signs of slowing down. We’re likely tracking right into mid November. With these big troughs diving in watch out. I’m holding out hope for a snowicane.

:weenie: 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Western Caribbean shows no signs of slowing down. We’re likely tracking right into mid November. With these big troughs diving in watch out. I’m holding out hope for a snowicane.

:weenie: 

WPAC has a crap year and then turns out Goni, which is one of the all-time greats. Amazing.

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