2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

[frd]

@WxWatcher007  some interesting trends. Maybe a New England or Atlantic Canada impact from Teddy. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

@frd I have a closer eye on it than I did yesterday, but I still favor maritime Canada over eastern Maine. I think my backyard doesn’t have a realistic shot at action right now. 

Meanwhile, it looks like that BOC system I talked about forever ago is looking better, and we might get one more MDR system to develop before things ease up a bit. Might be in the Greek alphabet next week. 

[frd]

 

           HWRF > Crankyweatherguy

 

[WxWatcher007]

WxWatcher007 Peak (Aug 20-Oct 20) Forecast 
Number of Named Storms: 11
Number of Hurricanes: 9
Number of Major Hurricanes: 5

Numbers so far: 9*/6/1

*Teddy maximum intensity TBD

[JakkelWx]

Bring in Teddy for our 200 year event.

[Eskimo Joe]

Very low probably, but Teddy going full tilt into Ocean City would be interesting.

[Kmlwx]

40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Very low probably, but Teddy going full tilt into Ocean City would be interesting.

I don't see a single model showing that scenario  

[snowfan]

Sounds and looks like the coast took a beating from the cooked hurricane that really was just a heavy Rainer. Smh.

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Sounds and looks like the coast took a beating from the cooked hurricane that really was just a heavy Rainer. Smh.

Yes, the coast was going to see erosion and damage from a long-duration storm. The point was never that it wouldn't cause damage. Hurricanes generally do that. The point was that the wind speed strength was massively oversold by NHC (data backs this up).

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I don't see a single model showing that scenario  

The EJWC model (EJ wish cast model) has it at 890 mb with a 6 mile wide eye landfalling 4 miles south of OC.

[frd]

Interesting 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

So remember when I said Greek alphabet by next week? Maybe this weekend lol. BoC bitty (90L) is definitely interesting and Teddy is looking more intriguing on the Euro (though I am far from sold right now).

[WxWatcher007]

We’re on the brink of an all-time active month for tropical genesis.

[frd]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Teddy is looking more intriguing on the Euro (though I am far from sold right now).

Looking like a decent swell event for surfers and boarders next week from Teddy. 

[WxUSAF]

0.5” line up to 95.

 

[losetoa6]

^Ninjd 

Was going to post that.  I still get zippo but DC and especially se of DC + eastern shore get some heavy downpours. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Lower eastern shore gets a good hit.

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah definitely some impacts for part of the subforum. Third time this season. Banner year.

[losetoa6]

That h5 evolution above on the Euro frd posted is a wicked capture of that tropical low slingshoting it into NNE . Awesome!!

 

Though I'd prefer the mid Atlantic 

[frd]

 

A bit outdated but still interesting.  

 

 

 

[frd]

 

Hammer time coming up.

 

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

WxWatcher007 Peak (Aug 20-Oct 20) Forecast 
Number of Named Storms: 11
Number of Hurricanes: 9
Number of Major Hurricanes: 5

Numbers so far: 9/6/2

[frd]

 

We have a CAT 4 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

 

So many records are falling. As Ventrice mentions below,  there is a strong possibility that 2020 will tie the record for most US  land falling tropical cyclones in a single season.  .  

 

[Maestrobjwa]

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

WxWatcher007 Peak (Aug 20-Oct 20) Forecast 
Number of Named Storms: 11
Number of Hurricanes: 9
Number of Major Hurricanes: 5

Numbers so far: 9/6/2

I'm a bit confused here...number of named storms that what...actually hit us, or?

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm a bit confused here...number of named storms that what...actually hit us, or?

That’s my prediction of the number of named storms, hurricanes, and majors that develop during the climatological peak. They don’t need to hit land. 

I’m doing ok so far but I know I’m going to be too low with named storms. Maybe too high with majors. Maybe. I still think we have another significant period of activity coming in October.

[gymengineer]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s my prediction of the number of named storms, hurricanes, and majors that develop during the climatological peak. They don’t need to hit land. 

I’m doing ok so far but I know I’m going to be too low with named storms. Maybe too high with majors. Maybe. I still think we have another significant period of activity coming in October.

I tend to think that your majors forecast will still be within one, and possibly too conservative. Laura got there, and Sally almost got there without all conditions being perfect, and Teddy got there too. There’s no reason to think the back half of your window would be completely asymmetrical to the the first half, so I think your forecast will work out.

[WxWatcher007]

We have Wilfred! 

WxWatcher007 Peak (Aug 20-Oct 20) Forecast 
Number of Named Storms: 11
Number of Hurricanes: 9
Number of Major Hurricanes: 5

Numbers so far: 12/6/2

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Remember the goofballs in the tropical subforum that said this season was a bust? It’s why I mostly ignore that place now. 

[George BM]

915 
WTNT34 KNHC 181633
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alpha Special Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL242020
430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF PORTUGAL...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED BUT BRING WINDS AND RAIN TO 
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL...


SUMMARY OF 430 PM GMT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 9.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF LISBON PORTUGAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES