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WxWatcher007

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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Ceiling is starting to look pretty high for TD 19. 94L notwithstanding lol close to the coast has been the hot zone for development and intensification this season. 

MDR isn't likely to produce a long track US threat right now, but that landfall pattern we were talking about a week ago is being taken advantage of by the close to coast stuff. 

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WxWatcher007 Peak (Aug 20-Oct 20) Forecast 
Number of Named Storms: 11
Number of Hurricanes: 9
Number of Major Hurricanes: 5

Numbers so far: 7*/3/1

*Paulette, Rene, & Sally maximum strength TBD

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It’s a weak signal right now, but when that big front/trough pushes south there are signals for development off the SE coast. It’s a ways out, but as we get closer to October CV season becomes homebrew :wub: season. 

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Seems like only the NAM turns Sally into anything, and even then it is a late explosion right before landfall that seems unlikely/exaggerated.

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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Seems like only the NAM turns Sally into anything, and even then it is a late explosion right before landfall that seems unlikely/exaggerated.

Was this supposed to be a good or bad take?

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28 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Seems like only the NAM turns Sally into anything, and even then it is a late explosion right before landfall that seems unlikely/exaggerated.

Define “anything”

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Define “anything”

I meant from a stronger hurricane perspective. Obviously, rainfall is going to be a nightmare with this, but that was the case even a couple days ago when it wasn't forecasted to do much.

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Just now, snowfan said:

GFS w a 977 making landfall in MS w a foot plus of rain. 

Yeah, latest GFS run came back with a legit Cat 1. Models are all over the place with intensity forecast. Hasn't done much so far.

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As far as Remnants go up here from Sally Jessy Raphael Euro op and Eps left  the door cracked open for a shot a day or 2 ago but the setup at h5 is quickly slamming shut . It never was a good chance but now barring a mini miracle N. MD will get high cirrus clouds and like it :lol:. I'll still track the flooding threat for the gulf coast because I  love extreme weather 

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

As far as Remnants go up here from Sally Jessy Raphael Euro op and Eps left  the door cracked open for a shot a day or 2 ago but the setup at h5 is quickly slamming shut . It never was a good chance but now barring a mini miracle N. MD will get high cirrus clouds and like it :lol:. I'll still track the flooding threat for the gulf coast because I  love extreme weather 

We need to just move to Bermuda. :rolleyes:

We'll see what the rest of the season has in store though.

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9 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Now we have TD 21.

... And it's already Vicky. lol

I'm sure someone who can better find the 12z info than me can confirm that for me. 

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196 
WTNT31 KNHC 141440
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212020
200 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE TWENTIETH NAMED STORM OF THE 2020 
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
...VICKY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 28.5W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

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3 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

At the rate this is going, I’m expecting a category 5 Hurricane Omega on Thanksgiving. :weenie:

Knowing our luck we'll have a tropical storm in January. 

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LOL I'm going to bust low on my NS forecast. 

WxWatcher007 Peak (Aug 20-Oct 20) Forecast 
Number of Named Storms: 11
Number of Hurricanes: 9
Number of Major Hurricanes: 5

Numbers so far: 9*/4/1

*Paulette, Sally, Teddy, Vicky maximum strength TBD

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29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

LOL I'm going to bust low on my NS forecast. 

WxWatcher007 Peak (Aug 20-Oct 20) Forecast 
Number of Named Storms: 11
Number of Hurricanes: 9
Number of Major Hurricanes: 5

Numbers so far: 9*/5/1

*Paulette, Sally, Teddy, Vicky maximum strength TBD

Add another to the Hurricane ranks. Number 5. 

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