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WxWatcher007

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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Looking good for remnants on Saturday. Gfs, GGEM, and euro all with similar tracks and results. Slight timing differences still.

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Are the floaters that used to be available through NHC not available anywhere? I know TT has floaters but for me they aren’t as good as the old NHC ones used to be.

Ive also seen images that make it look like the storm is stationary but the earth is moving. If anyone can’t link me to that I’d appreciate it.

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36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Are the floaters that used to be available through NHC not available anywhere? I know TT has floaters but for me they aren’t as good as the old NHC ones used to be.

Ive also seen images that make it look like the storm is stationary but the earth is moving. If anyone can’t link me to that I’d appreciate it.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I'm not sure whether the storm-relative ones are coming from.

 

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I assume that Laura needs to track north of the region... if we play the in my backyard forecast, to create the tornado threat/wind and flash flood threat. I've seen no models showing heavy rains north of Laura's track through the region for Saturday.

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8 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

I assume that Laura needs to track north of the region... if we play the in my backyard forecast, to create the tornado threat/wind and flash flood threat. I've seen no models showing heavy rains north of Laura's track through the region for Saturday.

Yeah. That’s what I’m looking for. A good trifecta. Give us the flooding rains, the tornadoes, the wind. Let no house remain standing.

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Idk....If Laura was charging north out of the gulf through the Fl panhandle  give me a west track.  North through East Tx and the caught up in the westerlies....give me a track just to the south or overhead.  

Cant wait for my .5" of tropical rains!

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1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Idk....If Laura was charging north out of the gulf through the Fl panhandle  give me a west track.  North through East Tx and the caught up in the westerlies....give me a track just to the south or overhead.  

Cant wait for my .5" of tropical rains!

Yea.  I'm thinking DC to extreme N.Va for a decent hit here  . 

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Probably belongs in the digital tropical thread!  Reminds me of Isabel....The only takeaway imo is LR ens are catching on to the NATL ridge late in the period.  Anything that develops in the SW ATL is going to have to thread the needle to escape a US landfall. 

 

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Last couple Euro runs have come south with the remnant center of circulation of Laura for the weekend.  Bringing it across extreme southern Va. ...even northern NC . I'm thinking mby chances of direct impacts are getting super slim . Might have to root for some convection from Laura's interaction with the frontal boundary coming in from the nw . Looking at h5 that in itself looks to possibly suppress the center of circulation and associated core of moisture.  Whoever's near or just north of that track should get a nice juicy period of heavy downpours.  I'm thinking somewhere in Va sees that . Could definitely use a couple inches of rain up here .

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Looks like the 12z guidance has bumped back north with Laura around HR96 and just about all the reliable numerical models push Laura through some part of LWXs CWA.

6 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Looks like cranky on Twitter is refusing to admit he was completely wrong on the intensity of Laura. Still believes Laura has reached her peak. 

 That is a weird account. The person runs an okay site with decent bookmarks, but their Twitter presence, IMO, is abrasive.

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59 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the 12z guidance has bumped back north with Laura around HR96 and just about all the reliable numerical models push Laura through some part of LWXs CWA.

 That is a weird account. The person runs an okay site with decent bookmarks, but their Twitter presence, IMO, is abrasive.

He was absolutely brutal on hurricane Michael, he was downplaying it downplaying it downplaying it then whoops it was a cat 5.

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51 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

He was absolutely brutal on hurricane Michael, he was downplaying it downplaying it downplaying it then whoops it was a cat 5.

Not to detract from the overall discussion here, mods feel free to move to banter, but Cranky is terrible with tropical. He has posted numerous times that he believes recon from planes, dropsondes and SFMR, is misleading and only observed wind gusts from the surface should count. He continues to believe to this day Michael was only a Cat 2 at landfall. It's bizarre. 

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19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Cranky is claiming that the cyclone is now degrading. 

yeah, dangerous of him to do that. 

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Just now, Inverted_Trough said:

Who is this cranky person?  Sounds like a crank? :o

Cranky is a twitter met who posts insights but has some strong opinions on tropical.

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4 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Cranky is a twitter met who posts insights but has some strong opinions on tropical.

He is very in depth on a lot of things. Thankfully he’s not a local met down there where thousands of people could be listening to him at this hour saying Laura is a weak storm. 

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4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Oh, EJ

It's a crap system for us. I was hoping this thing would've swung in like Ivan did in 2004 and given us at least a halfway decent tornado outbreak.

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