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WxWatcher007

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ha, and euro kills both waves. Didn’t it turn 98L into a cat 4 yesterday?

Yeah. Just goes to show how much the guidance has struggled with developing waves in this intraseasonal environment.

It kept trying to kill Isaias too after being bullish originally. It didn’t develop Hanna until it was already developed either. All I know is that the environment, while not great, does seem conducive for development—for both invests. How strong remains to be seen. 

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46 minutes ago, H2O said:

I sure hope all this hype doesn't go poof like all the day 10 snow storms in winter.

If it never snowed again I'd be just fine. I've always said, if you like snow you live in the wrong area. We are more likely to get tropical than a HECS.

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2 hours ago, Subtropics said:

If it never snowed again I'd be just fine. I've always said, if you like snow you live in the wrong area. We are more likely to get tropical than a HECS.

I think we're more likely to get a hecs.  Actually they seem to have similar recurrence frequencies.  Sandy, Irene, Isabel vs. 2003, 2010, 2016

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5 hours ago, Subtropics said:

If it never snowed again I'd be just fine. I've always said, if you like snow you live in the wrong area. We are more likely to get tropical than a HECS.

What? We've had a bunch of HECS in the past 20 years. How many legit tropical systems have we had? Isabel and...............

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

What? We've had a bunch of HECS in the past 20 years. How many legit tropical systems have we had? Isabel and...............

Isabel was only a big deal for areas right along the bay. Irene was way worse here. Sandy was pretty impressive too.

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Isabel was only a big deal for areas right along the bay. Irene was way worse here. Sandy was pretty impressive too.

True. Still more HECS though. Hell there were 3 just in 2009-2010. Then 2016 of course 

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

True. Still more HECS though. Hell there were 3 just in 2009-2010. Then 2016 of course 

Yeah I am not arguing that, but too many people seem to remember Isabel and forget the more impactful TS that influenced a larger area. Isabel was an inch of rain and some meh persistent wind here. It certainly produced some serious flooding along the bay though.

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Floyd was the worst for heavy rain/flooding in the last 20 years or so and probably the worst in my recent memory. Something like 12" here in a relatively short period. I literally couldn't find a way home that day, and only did because I took my chances on the last possible road and drove through a blocked off flooded area. The dude said he couldn't stop me from trying, and I had a Jeep. Seeing a subcompact car bobbing in the gush of water off to my right as I went through was a bit unsettling though lol.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Isabel was only a big deal for areas right along the bay. Irene was way worse here. Sandy was pretty impressive too.

Well, here in Chesterfield, VA Isabel was a huge deal. No power for 14 days, flooding, trees down everywhere you looked. Actually, Isabel was the very reason I started following the weather and learning. The reason I found this board (the old board). I had a 6 day old baby and no generator. Now? I’m well informed, my house is wired for a generator, and I’m ALWAYS prepared. 

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Floyd was the worst for heavy rain/flooding in the last 20 years or so and probably the worst in my recent memory. Something like 12" here in a relatively short period. I literally couldn't find a way home that day, and only did because I took my chances on the last possible road and drove through a blocked off flooded area. The dude said he couldn't stop me from trying, and I had a Jeep. Seeing a subcompact car bobbing in the gush of water off to my right as I went through was a bit unsettling though lol.

Floyd also sticks out to me as the worst in my brief 29 years...Will never forget losing power for three days and our basement flooding! Certainly a big mess! (And wow was the rainfall total really 12"?? Mercy). So far that experience hasn't been topped yet, lol

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Isabel was only a big deal for areas right along the bay. Irene was way worse here. Sandy was pretty impressive too.

Isabel was a big deal for areas west of 95/66. No power for 8 days. It was the last real storm out this way I remember. 

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Isabel was a weakening storm at landfall. Over the last few years we have seen a trend In storms strengthening prior to landfall thanks to climate change and overall warming of coastal waters. Given the warmth of the waters this year, anything with a similar track like Isabel would be much more devastating to the majority of this area. People say I’m crazy all the time but our area is well overdue. 

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44 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Isabel was a weakening storm at landfall. Over the last few years we have seen a trend In storms strengthening prior to landfall thanks to climate change and overall warming of coastal waters. Given the warmth of the waters this year, anything with a similar track like Isabel would be much more devastating to the majority of this area. People say I’m crazy all the time but our area is well overdue. 

If there were ever a year where things are more likely to intensify or pop close to the coast, this is it. There’s anomalously warm SSTs near the coastline, much higher oceanic heat content, and with the very wet conditions in the southeast, there’s more moisture which could help dampen the effects of continental dry air. 

This is why I highlighted the homebrew region as being highest risk this season.

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7 hours ago, lawone9 said:

Well, here in Chesterfield, VA Isabel was a huge deal. No power for 14 days, flooding, trees down everywhere you looked. Actually, Isabel was the very reason I started following the weather and learning. The reason I found this board (the old board). I had a 6 day old baby and no generator. Now? I’m well informed, my house is wired for a generator, and I’m ALWAYS prepared. 

Yeah it had more impact for places to the south and west. Locally though, the story was mostly the long duration of wind up the bay and associated flooding from that. Over where I am- away from the bay- it was basically a breezy, moderate rainstorm. Overall (locally), I would probably put it 4th on the list, going back to Floyd.

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NHC has a hurricane and tropical storm in the Gulf at the same time early next week (Tuesday).  Long way off obviously, but I wonder how often that has happened and how one may affect the other.  

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42 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

NHC has a hurricane and tropical storm in the Gulf at the same time early next week (Tuesday).  Long way off obviously, but I wonder how often that has happened and how one may affect the other.  

Models seem to be struggling on which system to favor strengthening over the other.

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3 hours ago, jaydreb said:

NHC has a hurricane and tropical storm in the Gulf at the same time early next week (Tuesday).  Long way off obviously, but I wonder how often that has happened and how one may affect the other.  

Basin wide 

 

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro likes td14. Probably a hurricane in the GOM. Still washes td13 out.

Eps more bullish on td13 per twitter 

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Euro struggling a bit more with tropical systems in the Atlantic basin this year. I wonder if it has to do with the decreased number of transatlantic commercial and freight aircraft, which is a big part of its data assimilation technique.

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I'll take the cmc. Takes the remnants through the Ohio valley and through the mid Atlantic.  It's been very dry in the western parts of the subforum. We didn't get the deluge earlier in the month. Would love a 3 to 5 " rainy day  for western MD and the 1 -81 corrider. 

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