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WxWatcher007

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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5 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

It looks like a bit of a lull on the models for anything tropical in the Atlantic for a bit after Isaias. There were some hints at something off of Africa coming to life in a week or two.

Are we considering tropical season a win for the area after this?

Or are we hunting the unicorn still? 

NO.

Always.

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That might’ve been a win east of I-95 but that was definitely not a win in my book. I’ve seen better rainstorms in January. Tracking hurricanes/tornadoes is always fun though.

 

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14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That might’ve been a win east of I-95 but that was definitely not a win in my book. I’ve seen better rainstorms in January. Tracking hurricanes/tornadoes is always fun though.

 

I'm east of 95 and it was a typical winter coastal. I've seen much worse during winter actually. Next

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3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I'm east of 95 and it was a typical winter coastal. I've seen much worse during winter actually. Next

You guys got fringed twice. I know tropical is not really your thing but someone is always fringed. The fishes are happy about the track.

Looking forward to more. Bring on the tropical but with everyone included. We need a up the bay track (SE to NW).

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4 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

You guys got fringed twice. I know tropical is not really your thing but someone is always fringed. The fishes are happy about the track.

Looking forward to more. Bring on the tropical but with everyone included. We need a up the bay track (SE to NW).

I was pretty surprised by the amount of rain I got once I got home. I was thinking it was way less. I got around 7" of rain. Wind wasn't bad here. It was blowing pretty good in where I work in Severna Park around 9:45. 

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Fantasyland GFS hinting at something in the NW Caribbean/gulf as well.  Lets get a gulf hit with a west track!  Panama City to Petersburg WV......

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2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

 

I better get my sleep now. With this upper level pattern and this pace continuing, this isn’t the last hurricane landfall we’ve seen...

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I better get my sleep now. With this upper level pattern and this pace continuing, this isn’t the last hurricane landfall we’ve seen...

Wait I'm confused...what changed since the other day when they were saying it was gonna be a 10-day layoff? Lol

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20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait I'm confused...what changed since the other day when they were saying it was gonna be a 10-day layoff? Lol

It looks like less SAL in the MDR and a more pronounced African wave period. Five waves can roll off but you only need one to develop to be trouble. 

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20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait I'm confused...what changed since the other day when they were saying it was gonna be a 10-day layoff? Lol

TC genesis is not an easy thing to forecast. You could be looking at a lull in activity that doesn't come to fruition only a few days later. Just like how a clipper can sneak up on you in winter. 

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That’s an aggressive forecast for sure. I mean I’d bet it will be active but 15 more named storms in basically the next 8 weeks?

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That would get us into the Greek Alphabet and bring us **ten** more hurricanes. Yikes. 

haven't they lost their touch over the years? pretty sure they aren't as reputable as they once were. i could be wrong...

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16 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

That’s an aggressive forecast for sure. I mean I’d bet it will be active but 15 more named storms in basically the next 8 weeks?

 

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

haven't they lost their touch over the years? pretty sure they aren't as reputable as they once were. i could be wrong...

Nope, they’re still the gold standard IMO. That forecast is very reasonable. We’re churning out named storms in a generally hostile pattern and all indications are that the peak will have very favorable conditions basin wide.

If this ridging dominant pattern holds and these waves develop, 2020 could rival 2005 and that’s not hyperbole. SAL notwithstanding, the basin is a powder keg. 

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14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Nope, they’re still the gold standard IMO. That forecast is very reasonable. We’re churning out named storms in a generally hostile pattern and all indications are that the peak will have very favorable conditions basin wide.

If this ridging dominant pattern holds and these waves develop, 2020 could rival 2005 and that’s not hyperbole. SAL notwithstanding, the basin is a powder keg. 

ahh thanks. :) 

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I always take these forecasts with a grain of salt.  yes, its been active so far but still such a long way to go and now they've set the bar very high.

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42 minutes ago, H2O said:

I always take these forecasts with a grain of salt.  yes, its been active so far but still such a long way to go and now they've set the bar very high.

So much this!

It's typical when they amp things up like this the most dramatic thing is the bust in the end.

 

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NOAA going big is actually a big deal. I think they tend to be conservative with their seasonal outlooks. 

At any rate, you don’t even need specific numbers to know it’s going to get bad. SSTs/TCHP/Shear are all on par with some of our lost active seasons ever and the region will likely get a boost during peak Climo with the MJO/CCKW. And that standing wave may continue. 

Maybe we don’t get to 25 named storms but the shelling is coming and it will be intense. We just don’t know how long it will last and how many will hit. 

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

NOAA going big is actually a big deal. I think they tend to be conservative with their seasonal outlooks. 

At any rate, you don’t even need specific numbers to know it’s going to get bad. SSTs/TCHP/Shear are all on par with some of our lost active seasons ever and the region will likely get a boost during peak Climo with the MJO/CCKW. And that standing wave may continue. 

Maybe we don’t get to 25 named storms but the shelling is coming and it will be intense. We just don’t know how long it will last and how many will hit. 

Maybe this season runs late too, like say we get an October 30th storm that dumps 3 feet of snow in the mountains...

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The Caribbean ocean temps departures from normal are going up.  

I would think the higher the ocean heat content the greater the potential for stronger hurricane in September in this area. .   

 

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