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WxWatcher007

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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Yeah, 993mb 70 mph. That even may be generous. But they still seem to think it’ll re intensify but I guess there isn’t much difference between 70 or 75 mph winds. Just semantics 

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17 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, 993mb 70 mph. That even may be generous. But they still seem to think it’ll re intensify but I guess there isn’t much difference between 70 or 75 mph winds. Just semantics 

It wont make much difference at all up here. Its all about the exact track, the degree of interaction with the eastward propagating trough- and specifically the UL jet- which will influence the placement of the best ascent. Seems a pretty good bet at this point there will be some 4"+ amounts along/just west/east of I-95. The immediate coast will ofc have to contend with some TS force winds and high surf.

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It wont make much difference at all up here. Its all about the exact track, the degree of interaction with the eastward propagating trough- and specifically the UL jet- which will influence the placement of the best ascent. Seems a pretty good bet at this point there will be some 4"+ amounts along/just west/east of I-95. The immediate coast will ofc have to contend with some TS force winds and high surf.

Yeah, should make for a little bit of fun. Just also trying to ease the minds of my Baltimore bay community friends lol. Some of them are so on edge all the time about any word on tropical systems since Isabel 

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Was reading this from LWX's disco about potential heavy rain.  What is a "PRE"?

Tropical moisture will be surging northward on Monday ahead of
an upper level trof and in advance of Isaias. Global models have
been indicating development of a PRE over the past couple of
days as upper trof and jet dynamics interact favorably with
Isaias.

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Just now, BlizzardNole said:

Was reading this from LWX's disco about potential heavy rain.  What is a "PRE"?

Tropical moisture will be surging northward on Monday ahead of
an upper level trof and in advance of Isaias. Global models have
been indicating development of a PRE over the past couple of
days as upper trof and jet dynamics interact favorably with
Isaias.

Predecessor Rain Event.

With the upper jet configuration, it looks like a real possibility.

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GFS maybe dropping some hints about where the predecessor will occur.   It  usually aligns well with the band of higher 700mb vorticity values.

pNh5hh3.png

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS maybe dropping some hints about where the predecessor will occur.   It  usually aligns well with the band of higher 700mb vorticity values.

pNh5hh3.png

I can’t really tell here, as i’m learning still, but my guess is the darker line starting at MD and going Northeast along the coast?

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1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

I can’t really tell here, as i’m learning still, but my guess is the darker line starting at MD and going Northeast along the coast?

Yeah the red shadings. It’s basically just showing there’s a lot of energy there which would support heavy rains, banding and storm development 

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Just now, Rhino16 said:

I can’t really tell here, as i’m learning still, but my guess is the darker line starting at MD and going Northeast along the coast?

Parrs ridge or the fall line could give it some support.   Floyd, Allison, and Irene, all had the best rains 30-60 miles west of the track.   Going to be hard for convection to push east into the ridge axis given the strong SW flow.

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16 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS maybe dropping some hints about where the predecessor will occur.   It  usually aligns well with the band of higher 700mb vorticity values.

pNh5hh3.png

 

 

 

 

Euro is similar local if not a bit west of there .

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro is similar local if not a bit west of there .

Usually the GFS is too far east with phasing coastal setups.  If this were wintertime the northern stream would steal it and it would go State College to Burlington.    Probably won't be able to do it here with a more convective setup.

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I remember when someone said “Give him a name already” Back when it looked better than it does now.

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22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS.  Rain totals through Tuesday continue to increase and expand.

CCC50311-4646-4B00-A5C4-2877143C6954.png

5CA482CB-C077-4B36-82F3-C32C0CA4DF19.png

Push that 5inch totals 40 miles west I’ll be happy.

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18z GFS isnt too bad. Hope 00z Euro et al continue with this trend.

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Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO 78

13CC51C0-FF6F-4700-8032-7E8A58D39B23.png

Not bad, I’d rather see it about halfway up the Potomac to DC but this still puts us in the game. 

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4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO

81096B67-755F-4D2A-9D80-8951973686E7.png

951E8AD3-C208-4852-A4F0-0F2199F56C26.png

18 HWRF has the low in about the same spot but a much more expansive precip shield to the west’s 

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10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

18 HWRF has the low in about the same spot but a much more expansive precip shield to the west’s 

Link?

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1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

Link?

It’s on tropical tidbits, both it and the hmon look good for our area although the storm is booking it so it’s brief. 

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Isaias doesn't want anything to do with Florida.   

Kgfvz32.gif

 

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