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WxWatcher007

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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We just don’t get hurricane strength storms in the immediate DC area so I’m perfectly fine with stuff like this

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It’s obviously increasingly likely that much of the EC feels direct impacts from Isaías. As you saw from the guidance, OTS looks less viable as the ridge looks stronger and the globals want to weaken the system near Florida. 

Interestingly, we can see on things like the euro that even with an inland track there may be some potential for enhancement of the low, bringing heavy rain and some wind to a large part of the coast. 

We really need to watch the short term trends. If this ends up stronger, either due to better organization or a close pass to FL that keeps it over warm waters, that could mean a higher impact further north. A weaker/FL landfall solution would weaken the system, but with the trough closing in we would likely be good for at least tropical rains. As is always the case with tropical, there will be winners and losers.

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This upper jet configuration would seem to be nearly ideal for some heavy tropical rains, with the actual storm positioned to the SE.

gfs_uv250_us_15.png

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This upper jet configuration would seem to be nearly ideal for some heavy tropical rains, with the actual storm positioned to the SE.

gfs_uv250_us_15.png

NE MD pummeled?

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

NE MD pummeled?

You know more about this than me- would that jet to the NW of the tropical low help enhance the outflow? Maybe keep it more intact as it gets pulled and accelerates due to the approaching trough?

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You know more about this than me- would that jet to the NW of the tropical low help enhance the outflow? Maybe keep it more intact as it gets pulled and accelerates due to the approaching trough?

Yeah I think that’s a distinct possibility. If this stays offshore and over the GS there’s potential there imo. 

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NHC no longer forecasting Isaias to be a hurricane past Florida per the 5pm advisory, but nudges the 5 day cone west just a bit.

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Luckily it went  more west  so it will stay weak, perhaps the whole season will be  like this.

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

HH GFS looks pretty decent for the region.

 

What's rainfall look like?

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

It won't impress you. Mainly east of I-95 and maximum of like 3.6 inches. 

Man we stink at tropical here.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Man we stink at tropical here.

Just edited it - was only looking at 24hr precip. But I bet some is from the weekend. So my original numbers may have been closer to correct. It's under an inch for most of MoCo. 

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It is a good bit west of 12z with the good precip. This is probably the best panel to capture the precip directly associated with the tropical low. An inch+ prior to this panel, some of which would be the PRE.

gfs_apcpn24_neus_13.png

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

This upper jet configuration would seem to be nearly ideal for some heavy tropical rains, with the actual storm positioned to the SE.

gfs_uv250_us_15.png

  

   Great post!     The orientation of the upper jet here would definitely put in a favorable region for ascent.    If we combine that with the 850 winds and PW, the winds show a clear connection to the tropical moisture feed, and that's reflected in the very impressive precipitable water values.     This is, of course, contingent on the further west track, although I think that *some* tropical moisture gets here Monday regardless.

 

Screen_Shot_2020-07-31_at_7_42.14_PM.png

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5 minutes ago, high risk said:

  

   Great post!     The orientation of the upper jet here would definitely put in a favorable region for ascent.    If we combine that with the 850 winds and PW, the winds show a clear connection to the tropical moisture feed, and that's reflected in the very impressive precipitable water values.     This is, of course, contingent on the further west track, although I think that *some* tropical moisture gets here Monday regardless.

 

Screen_Shot_2020-07-31_at_7_42.14_PM.png

You had me at ascent :D

Thanks for dropping in.

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Looking good for west of i95 crowd . And I laughed at the 21z Srefs for being so far west but damn..Eps looks almost ideal for central Md . 3 days ago I was optimistic looking at H5 overall and maybe us well west of i95 actually get in on some action from a tropical system for a change .

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-mslp_with_low_locs-6564000.png

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

We're in the cone of uncertainty on the 11pm advisory lol

I mean we are getting real close to breaking out the “It’s Happening” gif. Let’s do this!  And good night....

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