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WxWatcher007

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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34 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Euro was certainly a significant impact for many.

Its pretty impressive over the next 7 days in general for the region. Most of the eastern shore is 5"+ with a jackpot area of 9+ through next Wed.

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95% of the time with this initial position of our low off Florida west of 95 gets grazed but the current advertised H5 setup really has me interested.  The trough orientation also a bit better then 0z .Mby is definitely still in the game for remnants. Many Eps members bring the center over land in eastern NC and SE Va which is what us westerners need 

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3 hours ago, Baltimorewx said:

The Canadian says what storm lol

The Canadian is as useful for tropical systems it seems as snow boots in summer. 

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Even Eps surface winds look favorable for a north push of moisture as our low gets close to our latitude.  Mostly out of the south and even a bit sse.  Nice!

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-wnd10m_stream_mph-6499200.png

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As others have mentioned, I am really interested in the potential PRE models are advertising. Almost all major globals and now the extended NAM (:weenie:) showing this potential.  Gonna be tricky figuring out where it ultimately set up, if at all.  This is the most likely way for those of us near and west of the blue ridge to feel much of an impact.  

Give me a dew pt in the mid 70s with high PWAT and tropical downpours...

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28 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

As others have mentioned, I am really interested in the potential PRE models are advertising. Almost all major globals and now the extended NAM (:weenie:) showing this potential.  Gonna be tricky figuring out where it ultimately set up, if at all.  This is the most likely way for those of us near and west of the blue ridge to feel much of an impact.  

Give me a dew pt in the mid 70s with high PWAT and tropical downpours...

Definitely a PRE signal there. Might not know anything for sure until the track is locked.

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1 minute ago, Doorman said:

As Joe Friday would say...just the facts

I  have given the OPC progs and believe in them

more than a few on here know my rep......I have had bad vibes on this system for days

Best to all in harms way

dm

 

this system is over 700 nautical miles in length atm.....grasp that 

956868908_COD-GOES-East-global-halfdiskeastnorth_02.20200730.222018-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.e81bc3399180d0ad121b926288b92722.gif

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49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Predecesor rain event

Floyd if i remember correctly had an awesome PRE. My area got crushed. I remember the steady heavy tropical rain way ahead of the circulation coming through. My area had a lot of tree damage from that one. It was probably my favorite tropical event. 

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8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Floyd if i remember correctly had an awesome PRE. My area got crushed. I remember the steady heavy tropical rain way ahead of the circulation coming through. My area had a lot of tree damage from that one. It was probably my favorite tropical event. 

yeah  DL

Tropical  Rain  Train.......never ever saw   Cats and Dogs   before or after  

even thru Sandy

Across New Jersey, the average rainfall total was 7.05 in (179 mm), with the highest totals in North Jersey. The peak statewide precipitation during Floyd was 14.13 in (359 mm) in Little Falls, which was the highest rainfall total associated with a tropical cyclone in the state since 1950.

 

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6 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Ok I'll say it...... Rapid Intensification on the menu

Screenshot_2020-07-30_19-12-44.thumb.png.9fc80fc3d40583c7db5d9e7cb78fe98b.png

20+  years of tracking   this guy got the DNA of a Junk Yard Dog  (Tenacity)

 

wD4au8l7mEAc21Gh7KSMi3zHN5SxzpK-NkVz3Ism

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Can someone explain a PRE event in basic terms? And why would this be a PRE event?

My understanding is that they typically occur ahead of tropical cyclones, usually ones that are heading north, and have to do with it running into a front?

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29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukmet ensembles.  Some nice western tracks for good  remnants in central Md. Nice mean track. Right over Salisbury 

Mogreps 

PhotoPictureResizer_200730_203340354_crop_1440x2522.jpg

Lotta tracks on there that would make a lot of us happy.  It seems like this is the 3rd or 4th year in a row now with a storm in a similar position progged to do this coastal hug routine. 

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53 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukmet ensembles.  Some nice western tracks for good  remnants in central Md. Nice mean track. Right over Salisbury 

Mogreps 

PhotoPictureResizer_200730_203340354_crop_1440x2522.jpg

Yeah but it also has the mean track over central Florida for a time. That far west seems like a little bit of an outlier 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

zzzzzz

Another overhyped tropical "storm" that delivers some minor breezes and a few inches of rain but is called the second coming of Katrina by the news.

Alright dude but if this actually ends up being more than you say I'm comin' back to this post, lol

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright dude but if this actually ends up being more than you say I'm comin' back to this post, lol

But historically speaking isn’t a brush on the Carolinas and out to sea a pretty typical track? I still feel if any impacts will be minor locally. I am rooting for at least some really healthy rains if anything happens. 

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1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

But historically speaking isn’t a brush on the Carolinas and out to sea a pretty typical track? I still feel if any impacts will be minor locally. I am rooting for at least some really healthy rains if anything happens. 

While I'm no expert...that does seem to happen more often...although perhaps someone can provide some data here? The only ones I know about are the few that did make it up here and were close enough to still bring rain and wind (like Floyd and Isabell)

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