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WxWatcher007

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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12z Euro OP screams a tickle to the SE coast then right out to sea. 

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35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Op models are really just for weenie fodder. Ensembles lead the way. We won’t know anything until a center passes Hispaniola.

Speaking of weenie fodder and a less than realistic solution, check out the 12Z HMON. Apparently just a quick jaunt over the Chesapeake Bay will revive an inland-for-12-hours storm back to being a hurricane....

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=09L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2020072912&fh=126

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1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

Speaking of weenie fodder and a less than realistic solution, check out the 12Z HMON. Apparently just a quick jaunt over the Chesapeake Bay will revive an inland-for-12-hours storm back to being a hurricane....

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=09L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2020072912&fh=126

The weenie folder is complete. 2020 is doing it's thing.

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3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Speaking of weenie fodder and a less than realistic solution, check out the 12Z HMON. Apparently just a quick jaunt over the Chesapeake Bay will revive an inland-for-12-hours storm back to being a hurricane....

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=09L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2020072912&fh=126

Bay temps finally working in our favor lol

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We still need the GFS major cane up the Bay. It’s coming :lol: 

Sadly it's already too far SW for that. You need something coming at us from north of the Hebert Box without recurving which is a tall order. I thought Irma was going to finally get the job done but we remain deprived... so far.

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53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yep, weak and up the coast. That trough isn’t a kicker on a substantial number of the guidance.

 
Seems the afternoon WPC discussion is bullish on effects for the East Coast, at least in terms of rainfall that is.  
 
 
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Round of applause for the NAVGEM everyone! (Seriously, it’s doing it’s best to please the crowd...)

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Take with a whole bag of salt. 

 

 

That = this 

p168i.gif?1596059776

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Take with a whole bag of salt. 

86207369.gif?0.17396349497927

Yea...lookin nice. H5 argues for a mostly northerly track for  remnants ( central Md in the game lol)..maybe NNE at worst .  I'm liking it . Maybe just a bit more west push of that WAR .

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-6434400.png

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Funny how the euro shifted like it did to a more GFS type thing

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Just now, H2O said:

Funny how the euro shifted like it did to a more GFS type thing

ICON is on board too, but kinda like that person you never talk to...

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Convection isn’t all that great right now. This thing is a convoluted mess. Hard to believe it ever gets it going right now 

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18 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Convection isn’t all that great right now. This thing is a convoluted mess. Hard to believe it ever gets it going right now 

That may actually be beneficial long term. There's probably a weak surface low now, but it will probably be so weak that if it goes over Hispaniola a secondary low can form over a more favorable spot. This is a really odd tropical system. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

That may actually be beneficial long term. There's probably a weak surface low now, but it will probably be so weak that if it goes over Hispaniola a secondary low can form over a more favorable spot. This is a really odd tropical system. 

In the year of oddities...that would fit right in, lol

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1 hour ago, frd said:

That = this 

That's not a lot of rain considering how dry it has been.

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3 hours ago, frd said:

 

That = this 

p168i.gif?1596059776

 

 

 

 Call me 100% skeptical of that map. My guess is that you can take the northern half of that banana and shift it 100 miles east.

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11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

 Call me 100% skeptical of that map. My guess is that you can take the northern half of that banana and shift it 100 miles east.

I’m skeptical of anything before this thing gets past Hispaniola. 

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Reposting my morning thoughts 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Here are my morning thoughts:

After going through most of the evening with a very poor radar and satellite appearance, Isaías has quickly organized. IMO this is due to the wave axis finally tilting properly just as convection dramatically increased near the LLC. 

As a result, winds have come up and the pressure has continued to drop, and the satellite appearance much more resembles a developing tropical storm.  

17921494.gif?0.9564415918467231
 

I believe this convective burst has allowed for the LLC to take a more poleward heading. This is a critical change because this new NW heading is likely to allow the system to either skirt or avoid Hispaniola, especially its highest peaks. That should have both track and intensity implications downstream.

gifsBy12hr_01.gif

As I said yesterday, dry air does not look to be too much of a factor in development, though it will be near enough to potentially cause trouble as it likely did late yesterday, especially if shear can inject it. The pocket of moisture this storm has created looks better than it did yesterday, likely due to the impressive outflow from yesterday’s convection.

KvdZIig.jpg
 

Speaking of shear, although high shear is nearby, the storm is currently in a pocket of lower shear and that is expected to continue for at least another 24 hours. What does this mean? Well, I think that absent significant land interaction Isaías is likely to pass Hispaniola as a strong tropical storm with little to no weakening.

deZl408.jpg

Finally, the long term forecast. I think with a further north track, while the intensity ceiling increases, the odds for an eventual OTS solution do as well. However, to a large extent, we’re still in wait and see mode. It’s still unclear what things will look like after Hispaniola, though I think we have a better idea this morning that the system won’t be shredded. The better SST/TCHP environment ahead bears watching, especially if shear is held at bay. 

ZPxNJP0.png
 

aCO01PX.png
 

Today I’m watching two things:

1) What is the result of land interaction on the intensity of Isaías 

2) How well defined a core is Isaías able to hold or develop

I do not expect the model guidance to begin getting a better handle on intensity or track until recon has thoroughly sampled the environment and identified a dominant low level center. 

 

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Any track up and along the coast will have lower impacts here. Always a sharp cutoff on the west side

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19 minutes ago, H2O said:

Any track up and along the coast will have lower impacts here. Always a sharp cutoff on the west side

Exactly. And with the centerline track posted above I wouldn’t even think rain at all back here.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Exactly. And with the centerline track posted above I wouldn’t even think rain at all back here.

 

21 minutes ago, H2O said:

Any track up and along the coast will have lower impacts here. Always a sharp cutoff on the west side

We don’t know what kind of recurve we’re looking at...or how the recurve interacts with the trough. I kind of agree that they’ll be a cutoff, but there is a PRE signal in there too for someone. Ukie as an example.

o04Mq4u.png

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3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I do not expect the model guidance to begin getting a better handle on intensity or track until recon has thoroughly sampled the environment and identified a dominant low level center. 

 

This is interesting in terms of the apparent low level center versus the earlier mesovortex  that had been moving quickly to the NW.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

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