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COVID-19 Talk


mappy
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https://reichlab.io/covid19-forecast-hub

Tool for ensemble fans 
 
"The ensemble forecast combines models unconditional on particular interventions being in place with those conditional on certain social distancing measures continuing. To ensure consistency, only models with 4 week-ahead forecasts ahead are included in the ensemble." 
 

 

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3 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

On the topic of kids, recent studies failed to find a single case of a child passing the virus to an adult. While I'm sure it's happened somewhere at some point, the only research and data we have right now seems to show that kids just never really become contagious. 

One of the examples cited was a 9 year old British boy. They carried out contact tracing and out of the 170 people he came into contact with, 0 caught the virus. 

Open everything up as if nothing were wrong? No, but we should be putting together plans on how to get kids to back school this fall. Take the summer to develop a plan that protects teachers from other parents and staff, but it's becoming more and more clear it's not kids who are spreading this thing. 

You’re selectively reading studies. There are LOTS of studies showing reduction in transmission from closing schools, or that kids can transmit the virus, etc, including one that was just published in the Lancet. Try not to just freewheel you’re understanding on random studies you find, there are people with a lot of training paid a lot of money to collect and judge the best solutions based on what’s not there.

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

You’re selectively reading studies. There are LOTS of studies showing reduction in transmission from closing schools, or that kids can transmit the virus, etc, including one that was just published in the Lancet. Try not to just freewheel you’re understanding on random studies you find, there are people with a lot of training paid a lot of money to collect and judge the best solutions based on what’s not there.

 

He cited a legitimate study.. what's your problem? It doesn't fit your agenda of doom and fear?

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Literally the guy who wrote the study being cited here (Alasdair Munro) like "No, you're reading this study wrong" and other studies, published in the Lancet, have found the opposite.

This in part stems from the fact that most studies have taken place after schools were closed, and Children are not going to be primary transfer points of disease in those cases.

 

He's even raging about it on Twitter right now lol. Retweeting from people saying that hid study shows schools should remain closed. Munro just retweeted this:

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Has there or has there not been a case traced back to a child under 10 passing this to an adult? That's the headline I read..

That headline is exactly what he's raging about. There have been plenty of cases of kids under 10 passing to adults. In the study, they looked at a hundred or so households and none of them had the index case be a kid under 10 years old. He specifically states that the reason for this may be because children are less likely to be symptomatic and thus less likely to be discovered as the index case.

 

You can read more from one of his colleagues here:

 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

He cited a legitimate study.. what's your problem? It doesn't fit your agenda of doom and fear?

Yes and there are other studies that contradict. When we have contradictory evidence what that means is “we don’t know yet and we need to further examine it” not go with the study that fits what I want to be true. 

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In case you need direct evidence kids can transmit, about 10% of households had a kid as the primary index case by which the virus was transmitted:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044826v1

 

(This study is included in the Munro study, who has specifically said the conclusion in the media was being reported erroneously)

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Munro notes that there is a paucity of studies on children passing to adults though, for a ton of reasons. Most schools closed relatively early before studies began collecting data, and before widespread testing, so you wouldn't expecct many index cases to be children. Parents are much more likely to continue to be working and entering the community right now. Testing is hard to obtain period right now in many countries. You can't run an experimental study for obvious ethical reasons. Studies looking at viral load and infectivity suggest kids are just as infectious as adults.

 

But on top of all of this, there are tons of studies out there reporting different things in terms of childhood infectivity and so we should listen to the public health officials to draw our conclusions on this, instead of focusing on a single study that confirms our biases.

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes and there are other studies that contradict. When we have contradictory evidence what that means is “we don’t know yet and we need to further examine it” not go with the study that fits what I want to be true. 

Right.

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8 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

MD will be the last state in the country to being reopening- and when we do, it will likely involve mandatory rectal temperature-taking before entering any store. :lol:

Lol funny. Honestly the only 2 things I miss are restaurants/bars and sports. I never aimlessly went into stores to begin with so I could careless about typical retail. But I’m ready to sit at my local tiki bar, and sip on some drinks while watching the Os game. Weather supportive of course 

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Hogan should spend less time puffing his chest about MARYLAND STRONG and more time fixing the broken unemployment system. My brother waited online for 6 hours to refile, then got an automated form in the mail saying he had to call- and the line has been busy for days, you can never get through. Meanwhile he didn't get paid, his career has been destroyed, and he's running out of money...

The snarky comments on here about "awww Karen can't get her nails done!" -no, it's a lot worse than that.

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33 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

There’s no point in going back to school, it’s May

Most of the planning I’m aware of is for summer school and fall. Annoyingly some of the suggestions aren’t realistic. Lots of details need to be worked out. Directives with no way to realistically implement them isn’t helpful.  That’s like a high stakes game of “not my problem, I told them what to do and they didn’t do it”. 

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Hasn’t been confirmed but it sounds like MLB will resume spring training on June 15 and open the season July 1 with teams playing in their own stadiums.

Still a while away but would be acceptable I guess. Question would be with fans? What capacity? Etc etc 

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I have so many questions on sports...

 

What happens when a team gets cases? Does the game get canceled, and the team get isolated for 2 weeks? Seems like a logistical nightmare for scheduling.

What happens to the refs, who seem to be in the at risk age range? 

What happens with the coaches, many of who are in similar age ranges?

And of course... what the hell is going to happen with college football?

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