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COVID-19 Talk


mappy
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There is too much lumping of people into "sides" here IMO.  Not everyone questioning the current plan or accepted assumptions about Covid is automatically saying "we should just open up with no measures and let whatever happen".  And not everyone arguing against someone making a case for a quick opening is saying "we should stay closed for 3 years if we have too no matter what".  There is a LOT of space in between those 2 extremes.  

Personally I have NEVER said we should stay in lockdown for any set period of time.  My main points of contention have been when I saw arguments I didn't feel had logical consistency.  But here is what I do think...whatever plan we have should be developed based on sound scientific evidence and logic.  We should come up with metrics to determine when it is safe and and how to open.  And then those metrics (not peoples feelings) should determine the timeline.  Because those metrics will determine when it is safe...not someones feelings of cabin fever.  The virus doesn't care how frustrated you are.  If we open before it is time we risk doing more harm than good.  But what those metrics should be is a valid debate.  And once we meet the metrics, whatever they are, we should open.  In some places maybe that is very soon.  In some places maybe that is still a long ways away.  I don't know...but I see way too many arguments that seem to be based upon wanting to formulate policy based on their feelings and what they want...not actual evidence that its a good idea medically.  

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I will accept that it was a mistake and not intentional.  We all make mistakes.  The number of infections likely is growing.  Also keep in mind that because deaths lag infection by about 3 weeks typically there are some people who were infected at the time of the study as still alive...that will unfortunately pass away after the date of the study.  So the mortality rate will end up higher than if you simply take the deaths and divide by the infections at the time of the study.  That is one reason why there is a range not an exact number for the estimated mortality rate.  

One other thing...wrt to your comp to the flu.  If you are going to compare the two you need to use the same metric.  If you are going to use the lowest possible mortality estimate for covid then you need to compare it to the low end of the flue mortality estimates.  When you made your flu/covid comparison you used the low end of the covid range with the high end of the flu.  That is a skewed comparison.  

Fair enough.  WRT my flu comparison, I think I have seen enough to be convinced that this is more lethal than the flu.  Especially in elderly populations.  The number of deaths will be greater than in a bad flu year like 2018.  

However.. and this has been the point that I have been trying to drive home for weeks now is this:

A sharper curve would mean a faster path to eradication which could likely mean that there would be less overall deaths.

In other words.. we are not going to cure this by hiding.. nature has a way of balancing these things out.  I trust that way more than I trust anything else. 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Fair enough.  WRT my flu comparison, I think I have seen enough to be convinced that this is more lethal than the flu.  Especially in elderly populations.  The number of deaths will be greater than in a bad flu year like 2018.  

However.. and this has been the point that I have been trying to drive home for weeks now is this:

A sharper curve would mean a faster path to eradication which could likely mean that there would be less overall deaths.

In other words.. we are not going to cure this by hiding.. nature has a way of balancing these things out.  I trust that way more than I trust anything else. 

 

 

 

You do realize if it will take about 80%+ infections to reach herd immunity and the mortality is between .5-1% that’s 2+ million deaths in the United States using that route?

The one piece of hard non data evidence against “let nature take its course” is what happened in most places that tried that. Look at what happened in places that got hit before mitigation measures were implemented. They ended up in lockdown anyways not because they wanted to prevent anything but because it got so bad fast they had no choice. 

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25 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

this simply isn't true.

and *fewer

Ha!  For some reason, the incorrect use of "fewer" vs. "more" has always somewhat bothered me, and I'm guilty of it myself at times.  Even in supermarket checkout lines, "12 items or less", should really be "fewer"...though I get they're probably just trying to be short about it.  I've always heard you should use "fewer" for a discrete, integer number ("there are fewer people..."), and "less" for a non-integer or non-discrete value, or an abstract idea ("I payed less money for gas this past week", or "There is less confusion..."). 

Sorry to be off-topic and a bit pedantic here!:D

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Ha!  For some reason, the incorrect use of "fewer" vs. "more" has always somewhat bothered me, and I'm guilty of it myself at times.  Even in supermarket checkout lines, "12 items or less", should really be "fewer"...though I get they're probably just trying to be short about it.  I've always heard you should use "fewer" for a discrete, integer number ("there are fewer people..."), and "less" for a non-integer or non-discrete value, or an abstract idea ("I payed less money for gas this past week", or "There is less confusion..."). 

Sorry to be off-topic and a bit pedantic here!:D

hahaha, as i said. never change, friend. 

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3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

7 calendar days of this and ICU decrease.  There was +202 in hospitalizations reported today.

Is MD still on a decline per the governors criteria to reopen? I thought it had to wait until total hospitalizations declined for 14 days.

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

It looks like they changed to currently hospitalized also which is a more relevant count. 

It use to say "ever hospitalized" but the numbers added were still new additions. Now it just falls under "current" instead of "ever"

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Looks like Georgia's reopening isn't doing much in terms of changing public behavior yet.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/us/coronavirus-live.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus-national&variant=show&region=MID_MAIN_CONTENT&context=storyline_updates_national#link-38d1ce6b

 

"Georgia’s governor allowed restaurants to open for dine-in service Monday so long as they followed a long set of safety guidelines, but many Atlanta restaurants declined to.

One that did reopen was Rocky Mountain Pizza Company, located just across the state from the Georgia Institute of Technology campus. It flung open its doors Monday morning, but as of 12:30 p.m., no one had come to sit down for lunch."

 

 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

1st day open .......Too be expected and a good thing honestly.  Tomorrow might be 2 customers ...Wed 5 ...and so on and so on.... a very  slow ramp up . People will slowly start dining in but cautiously. I'm glad we are seeing a couple states trying to phase in openings so the rest can observe  . As you quoted ...with a long set of safety guidelines which is important 

Makes sense. I’m personally going to wait 2-3 weeks to transition to whatever new normal happens after they reopen here. That other people are doing the same makes sense to me.

 

Its interesting most places didn’t even open though.

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16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

1st day open .......Too be expected and a good thing honestly.  Tomorrow might be 2 customers ...Wed 5 ...and so on and so on.... a very  slow ramp up . People will slowly start dining in but cautiously. I'm glad we are seeing a couple states trying to phase in openings so the rest can observe and learn from them . Someone has to start imo.As you quoted ...with a long set of safety guidelines which is important 

Agree, someone has to be first and as long as they are doing it in a measured approach it will be a good test.   

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I've heard from several friends and family of this crap from multiple states .

Yes I’m sure there are issues elsewhere, but this new website launch has been disastrous. For me, and I’ve seen several people say the same, the weekly webcert claims were easy and efficient on the old website. They should have left it alone, and created a new portal for the new claims expecting to file 

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