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COVID-19 Talk


mappy
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6 hours ago, jaydreb said:

More new cases could just be a result of more widespread testing.  We probably should be tracking deaths and new hospitalizations. 

Yeah there are about 1,500 more tests per day the last few days compared to last week. The percentage of positive from tested, are still roughly the same. 

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2 hours ago, supernovasky said:

Hikes, walking, etc are specifically mentioned as exceptions in the stay at home order, so I can see why people are doing it - it's allowed under the rules.

 

But god they have to learn to wear masks and not congregate. There was NO social distancing at the first hiking trail I pulled up to, hence why I left it.

I’m not blaming people for being out at parks and things like that. Just seemed like a lot of people in general out and about today and an uptick in traffic for sure. My local Dunkin’ Donuts was off the chain This morning 

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12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Folks be wary of the onslaught of "recent studies".  Question the source and see if there was a control group.  Otherwise the conclusions are likely dubious.

I read that COVID transmission in the outside environment is highly dependent on weather conditions. Interesting considering this is a wx forum.

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4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Another 2k+ deaths today, just extrapolating what the back side of the US curve might look like based on Italy, I can’t see how we’d end up averaging less than 1k per day for a good part or all of May.  Good chance we’ll be 80-90k by the end of May.  Really terrible but i don’t see how we just drop down super fast. 

That's with current measures being maintained too.

States reopening make me think that 100-200k death is still well within likelihood. 

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This thread is good example of the effects this crap has on people. You got the same folks that come through every morning and get so excited to post new #s and slice and dice data to meet their agenda and cause fear. They are so consumed by the day to day #s that they can no longer step back and look at bigger picture. They get so worked up and pretend like they have it all figured out, while shaming others that don’t buy into the bs. In the end they are just pushing an agenda that they are to too stupid to even realize even doing

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23 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Another 2k+ deaths today, just extrapolating what the back side of the US curve might look like based on Italy, I can’t see how we’d end up averaging less than 1k per day for a good part or all of May.  Good chance we’ll be 80-90k by the end of May.  Really terrible but i don’t see how we just drop down super fast. 

 

The most alarming part to me is that in a flu season we can see 30-60k related deaths. But with covid19 we are already at that upper level range in less than 6 weeks essentially. Sorry if my numbers are slightly.off, going by memory irt influenza seasonal mortality.

Eta: and in actuality, most of the deaths from covid19 in the USA have occurred just in the past 4 week period. 

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5 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

This thread is good example of the effects this crap has on people. You got the same folks that come through every morning and get so excited to post new #s and slice and dice data to meet their agenda and cause fear. They are so consumed by the day to day #s that they can no longer step back and look at bigger picture. They get so worked up and pretend like they have it all figured out, while shaming others that don’t buy into the bs. In the end they are just pushing an agenda that they are to too stupid to even realize even doing

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The most alarming part to me is that in a flu season we can see 30-60k related deaths. But with covid19 we are already at that upper level range in less than 6 weeks essentially. Sorry if my numbers are slightly.off, going by memory irt influenza seasonal mortality.

Next fall if covid is back simultaneously with a flu season that will be very bad.  This year it coincided with the tail end of flu season. 

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22 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

This thread is good example of the effects this crap has on people. You got the same folks that come through every morning and get so excited to post new #s and slice and dice data to meet their agenda and cause fear. They are so consumed by the day to day #s that they can no longer step back and look at bigger picture. They get so worked up and pretend like they have it all figured out, while shaming others that don’t buy into the bs. In the end they are just pushing an agenda that they are to too stupid to even realize even doing

That’s a lot of words used to not say anything of value.  Do you have any ideas you’d like to contribute?

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18 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

This thread is good example of the effects this crap has on people. You got the same folks that come through every morning and get so excited to post new #s and slice and dice data to meet their agenda and cause fear. They are so consumed by the day to day #s that they can no longer step back and look at bigger picture. They get so worked up and pretend like they have it all figured out, while shaming others that don’t buy into the bs. In the end they are just pushing an agenda that they are to too stupid to even realize even doing

The F!$!?

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6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

That’s a lot of words to not saying anything of value.  Do you have any ideas you’d like to contribute?

I think at end of day there is no integrity in the data, but yet y’all sit here and freak out all day everyday. It’s clearly become a personal choice if someone wants to buy into the fear or take the risk that perhaps things may not be as portrayed. Just think at this point there’s not much integrity in any data from any country from any study, so nobody should pretend they have it all figured out

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1 minute ago, Rvarookie said:

I think at end of day there is no integrity in the data, but yet y’all sit here and freak out all day everyday. It’s clearly become a personal choice if someone wants to buy into the fear or take the risk that perhaps things may not be as portrayed. Just think at this point there’s not much integrity in any data from any country from any study, so nobody should pretend they have it all figured out

No integrity in what data specifically?  Also, if you’re so above “freaking out” and if the data that we discuss is in your mind no good then why are you in this thread at all?

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This thread may be good example why some of y’all can’t ever predict a snow storm. Too busy consumed on models and what everyone else says to have the balls to form your own opinions. 

I do appreciate the data you have all shared daily tho and I hope y’all stay healthy during  these tough times. 

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7 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

This thread may be good example why some of y’all can’t ever predict a snow storm. Too busy consumed on models and what everyone else says to have the balls to form your own opinions. 

I do appreciate the data you have all shared daily tho and I hope y’all stay healthy during  these tough times. 

Hahaha I do like your trolling style better than some of the others that have passed through this thread tbh.  At least you don’t pretend to try to understand what’s actually happening out there in the world. It’s a little less abrasive, keep it up. 

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Hahaha I do like your trolling style better than some of the others that have passed through this thread tbh.  At least you don’t pretend to try to understand what’s actually happening out there in the world. It’s a little less abrasive, keep it up. 

Thanks! Def not trolling. Just coming from a place where you can’t trust much of anything so I’d  prefer to take the risks, yet also trying to be sensitive to others that may not feel that same way. At least we should all agree the denominator has always been off...

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2 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Thanks! Def not trolling. Just coming from a place where you can’t trust much of anything so I’d  prefer to take the risks, yet also trying to be sensitive to others that may not feel that same way. At least we should all agree the denominator has always been off...

The thing about infectious disease though is that it’s not just you.  You being out in the world increases the risk that others will get it.  Secondly, if you mean the total number of infections is greater than the known number of cases, of course.  That is true for every disease in the history of mankind that there is a test for. 

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27 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

I think at end of day there is no integrity in the data, but yet y’all sit here and freak out all day everyday. It’s clearly become a personal choice if someone wants to buy into the fear or take the risk that perhaps things may not be as portrayed. Just think at this point there’s not much integrity in any data from any country from any study, so nobody should pretend they have it all figured out

So if every study and all data is useless what are you using to form your opinion?  

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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:


I’d really like to know how much of a risk this is. If groups stay 6 feet apart it seems just based on common sense that it wouldn’t be able to spread like in a confined space.  I know there isn’t a lot of conclusive data on this yet....

THAT picture is clearly a risk...

 

Remember one of the biggest clusters came from spring break travelers.

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:


I’d really like to know how much of a risk this is. If groups stay 6 feet apart it seems just based on common sense that it wouldn’t be able to spread like in a confined space.  I know there isn’t a lot of conclusive data on this yet....

It probably looks worse than it actually is.  If people keep their distance from one another the risk of transmission is fairly low.  The other issue, however, is that all those people are touching more gas pumps, parking meters, etc.  

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