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COVID-19 Talk


mappy
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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

If I go into the hospital with COVID and chest pains and die, did I die of a heart attack or "COVID-19 complications"? It's a real dilemma for health stats.

I also wonder if people are able to understand that a lot of people dying from or with COVID 19 would have been like like to die from some other cause that is accepted as okay.  For example, an 80 year old in a nursing home died from Covid 19.  But they had preexisting conditions that would have caught up with them sooner than later.  It’s these difficult and sad thought exercises that also skew the death numbers IMO.

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Here is an example (excuse the simplistic crude numbers)

Daily deaths
100
120
130
140
145
147

Rate of change in daily deaths
20
10
10
5
2

Rate of change of the rate of change
10
0
-5
-3

Yes, total deaths are still climbing, but the overall rate is headed downwards. When you are dealing with big numbers this view helps understand the overall trend.

If you take an extra 20 older deaths and toss them into the 147 figure, it screws up this analysis completely and makes it appear the death rate is skyrocketing again (now you are plus 17 that last day).

Hope this helps some understand my point. I have seen Cuomo make this error on live TV several times.

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2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I also wonder if people are able to understand that a lot of people dying from or with COVID 19 would have been like like to die from some other cause that is accepted as okay.  For example, an 80 year old in a nursing home died from Covid 19.  But they had preexisting conditions that would have caught up with them sooner than later.  It’s these difficult and sad thought exercises that also skew the death numbers IMO.

Every time I see a big Nursing Home outbreak and resulting deaths.. I go to there website.. every time.. the first thing that is advertised on their homepage is hospice care... it never fails 

Thing about that for a minute.

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2 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

its not a dilemma.. they know the primary cause.. my grandmother died of congestive heart failure last year.. I am sure she had the flu, pneumonia and whatever invaded during the hospice phase.  It is just the way it works.   

It's actually not that easy, especially because Covid can attack many different tissues and organs causing severe reactions and deaths that are easily attributesd to other causes.

Here is a article from science that details what doctors are seeing with Covid patients and how they are trying to better understand how the virus attacks the body:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes#

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Just now, 40westwx said:

Every time I see a big Nursing Home outbreak and resulting deaths.. I go to there website.. every time.. the first thing that is advertised on their homepage is hospice care... it never fails 

Thing about that for a minute.

If you dig into excess mortality analyses you very clearly find that COVID basically takes someone that had a very high risk of dying within 6 months and just kills them right away.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I'm wary of that too given how past weekend seemed better and then...this week happened

Does the notion that the states could be very bad at accurately tallying these numbers play into this at all? There are numerous ways these numbers could be pretty inaccurate. The weekend thing is evidence of that. COVID doesn't kill less often on Saturdays.

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13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Here is an example (excuse the simplistic crude numbers)


Daily deaths
100
120
130
140
145
147

Rate of change in daily deaths
20
10
10
5
2

Rate of change of the rate of change
10
0
-5
-3

Yes, total deaths are still climbing, but the overall rate is headed downwards. When you are dealing with big numbers this view helps understand the overall trend.

If you take an extra 20 older deaths and toss them into the 147 figure, it screws up this analysis completely and makes it appear the death rate is skyrocketing again (now you are plus 17 that last day).

Hope this helps some understand my point. I have seen Cuomo make this error on live TV several times.

he also said that a person went to bartmiztva didnt know he was sick.. wound up infecting 120 other people and many of them died.  #contacttracing

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The other thing that makes Covid less scary to me is that it does not have adverse effects on kids for the most part.  I have young kids so i tend to look at life through the lens of what is dangerous for them.  And until there is some change in the data, I’m not concerned at all for my kids.  Is that a selfish view.  Perhaps, but if you have young kids your number one priority is there health and happiness.  The lockdown hasn’t made my kids healthier, but it has made them less happy. 

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

The other thing that makes Covid less scary to me is that it does not have adverse effects on kids for the most part.  I have young kids so i tend to look at life through the lens of what is dangerous for them.  And until there is some change in the data, I’m not concerned at all for my kids.  Is that a selfish view.  Perhaps, but if you have young kids your number one priority is there health and happiness.  The lockdown hasn’t made my kids healthier, but it has made them less happy. 

I think we are all thankful for that, as the mom of a 4 year old.

 

My kiddo has been ecstatic about staying home though haha.

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22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Ben Gardner was an old man. Should he have died? Think about that for a minute.

If he had the virus when he went fishing at night the coroner will say it was COVID as cause of death. Not the massive shark bites and hanging eyeball

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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I think we are all thankful for that, as the mom of a 4 year old.

 

My kiddo has been ecstatic about staying home though haha.

I mean my kids are loving having Dad home all the time.  But at the same time they are missing their friends and school and life.  I was fully on board for the 15 days to slow the spread.  And reluctantly on board for the additional month ending May 1.  But when Governor Northam made the June 10 declaration i was not on board anymore.  

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

I mean my kids are loving having Dad home all the time.  But at the same time they are missing their friends and school and life.  I was fully on board for the 15 days to slow the spread.  And reluctantly on board for the additional month ending May 1.  But when Governor Northam made the June 10 declaration i was not on board anymore.  

It’s been an adjustment. It’s hard for me to play mom and good coworker at the same time. But you know, he’s happy he gets to have lots of play time and he’ll remember this when he’s older as not a scary or sad time but one where he got to spend lots of time with me.

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1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

 

I’m not sure why people are losing their minds over this pic.  It seems from afar that most people are in small groups with distance in between.  As long as they don’t let it get too packed it’s probably a good idea to have some beaches open so people don’t congregate in confined spaces indoors.  

I dont understand the no chair rule.. if people were sitting it would be easier to maintain 6 feet.  When you are moving around accidents happen..

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Just now, supernovasky said:

It’s been an adjustment. It’s hard for me to play mom and good coworker at the same time. But you know, he’s happy he gets to have lots of play time and he’ll remember this when he’s older as not a scary or sad time but one where he got to spend lots of time with me.

Thats great to hear.  I am still hopeful of a faster turnaround come mid May.  I really think warmer weather will be a huge factor.  But waiting around to test that theory stinks.

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11 minutes ago, H2O said:

If he had the virus when he went fishing at night the coroner will say it was COVID as cause of death. Not the massive shark bites and hanging eyeball

You know what’s always bothered me about that movie? The guy that went out fishing with Ben, it was the same time that those idiots were throwing dynamite into the bay, but he was with Ben and he must have died too. I mean, the night Brody and Hooper went out in the boat was the same day as when the bozos caught the tiger shark (a whaaaattt??), so where’s his body? And worse, the body count is wrong! Did he have the flu? A prevailing heart condition?
 

To me it doesn’t really matter. Death shouldn’t be casual, and certainly nobody should die alone like what is happening now.

This guy...

image.jpeg.a8f35070896e357c1d2471121f56c887.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You know what’s always bothered me about that movie? The guy that went out fishing with Ben, it was the same time that those idiots were throwing dynamite into the bay, but he was with Ben and he must have died too. I mean, the night Brody and Hooper went out in the boat was the same day as when the bozos caught the tiger shark (a whaaaattt??), so where’s his body? And worse, the body count is wrong! Did he have the flu? A prevailing heart condition?
 

To me it doesn’t really matter. Death shouldn’t be casual, and certainly nobody should die alone like what is happening now.

This guy...

image.jpeg.a8f35070896e357c1d2471121f56c887.jpeg

What bothered me is that I just don’t have enough scars to be in a scar off contest. I have 3 and one was self inflicted. Cone of shame. 

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43 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I mean my kids are loving having Dad home all the time.  But at the same time they are missing their friends and school and life.  I was fully on board for the 15 days to slow the spread.  And reluctantly on board for the additional month ending May 1.  But when Governor Northam made the June 10 declaration i was not on board anymore.  

To be fair, it is June 10th OR when canceled if you look at the wording.

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