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COVID-19 Talk


mappy
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Just now, PhineasC said:

It feels super raw right now, but in a few years we will look back on smoothed out annual and decadal death statistics and this will not even have budged the charts. Public health people and politicians need to think much bigger picture than death rates. Also, many of the deaths are in nursing homes. You can self isolate in your basement in a hazmat suit for years and not prevent that. This virus is going to kill people no matter what. Is 20k deaths way better than 30k somehow?

lol every time you’re stuck you go to the same straw man of the fictitious guy in basement, so predictable.  If we follow your ideas and go “every man for himself” we’ll be counting bodies in the hundreds of thousands or millions.  Yes that is worse. 

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23 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

lol every time you’re stuck you go to the same straw man of the fictitious guy in basement, so predictable.  If we follow your ideas and go “every man for himself” we’ll be counting bodies in the hundreds of thousands or millions.  Yes that is worse. 

A month ago we were told that there could be 2.2 million Americans killed by this virus.  Almost everyone bought into the initial two weeks to slow the spread.  Then the vast majority of us said we will do another 30 days.  Now predictions are the we could have 60000 deaths.  That’s still a tragedy.  We all sacrificed a lot to fight this battle.  10s of millions of jobs, mental health scars that may take years to heal, depleted savings etc.  Come May 1 there will no longer be majority support in this country for continued shut downs.  We need to take the next two weeks to plan for those most vulnerable in our lives and how to keep them safe.  If we do that and responsibly reopen the country we will be stronger than ever as a country.

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13 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

A month ago we were told that there could be 2.2 million Americans killed by this virus.  Almost everyone bought into the initial two weeks to slow the spread.  Then the vast majority of us said we will do another 30 days.  Now predictions are the we could have 60000 deaths.  That’s still a tragedy.  We all sacrificed a lot to fight this battle.  10s of millions of jobs, mental health scars that may take years to heal, depleted savings etc.  Come May 1 there will no longer be majority support in this country for continued shut downs.  We need to take the next two weeks to plan for those most vulnerable in our lives and how to keep them safe.  If we do that and responsibly reopen the country we will be stronger than ever as a country.

Ok, it’s been fun arguing tonight.  Mostly I disagree with this but I’m drinking beer now and am too lazy to continue.  But I salute you and @PhineasC for your willingness to go back and forth. 

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23 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

A month ago we were told that there could be 2.2 million Americans killed by this virus.  Almost everyone bought into the initial two weeks to slow the spread.  Then the vast majority of us said we will do another 30 days.  Now predictions are the we could have 60000 deaths.  That’s still a tragedy.  We all sacrificed a lot to fight this battle.  10s of millions of jobs, mental health scars that may take years to heal, depleted savings etc.  Come May 1 there will no longer be majority support in this country for continued shut downs.  We need to take the next two weeks to plan for those most vulnerable in our lives and how to keep them safe.  If we do that and responsibly reopen the country we will be stronger than ever as a country.

The model that predicts 60,000 deaths assumes that social distancing continues through the end of May.  If that doesn’t happen (and it won’t), all bets are off.  

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Hard to exactly follow daily fatality numbers on the JHU website but looks like 3K+ so far?

Should note, CDC put out new guidelines thus week to start including probable cases/deaths in counts. Worldometer starting doing that on the 14-15. I’ve noticed big differences between the two the last two days with counts. Just something to keep in mind when looking at numbers. 

3 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Thanks for all your updates on all this, I really appreciate it (as I'm sure others do too).  Yeah, I think they're pushing the date incrementally to come up with whatever kind of plan on how to handle the end of the school year.  Whether that's the best or not, I don't know...I kind of fully expect there won't be school the remainder of this year.  What's interesting is I've heard some places had closed schools for the remainder of this year some time ago with no hesitation.  Friend of mine in Atlanta told me back in March that they did just that, and at the time it surprised me (at that time, I think MD had set the closure date through March 27).  At any rate, I don't mind the caution and not going back this academic year...though I have to imagine for seniors graduating this year with likely no ceremony, it will suck (high school, but also colleges and universities).  Can't imagine they'll hold back diplomas.  But I do wonder how anyone taking things like AP exams, SAT, etc. will work that out.  Guess that will be up to the testing agencies, as that's done nation-wide.  I've heard they may allow it to be done remotely at home, somehow.

You’re welcome! I hope it does help, but I am just another weather nerd like the rest of y’all and have no background in any of this stuff lol. So hopefully no one is taking my thoughts and planning based on them. But, yes it seems as if the state is planning, but also the superintendent is known for making sure the school years get the necessary days in, no matter the weird schedule or length it takes. I think all parents in MD need to keep all options opened. I thought they’d just end the year and move on, but I’ve heard chatter from teacher friends that they are considering having kids go to school over the summer, as an option. So who knows... I hate the continued hope that they could go back. It drags on and wears you down, kids included. 

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22 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Ok, it’s been fun arguing tonight.  Mostly I disagree with this but I’m drinking beer now and am too lazy to continue.  But I salute you and @PhineasC for your willingness to go back and forth. 

It wouldn’t be any fun if we agreed on everything.  Just because we disagree doesn’t mean i don’t have a lot of respect for the other opinions on this thread.  It’s not a black and white situation.  I wish there was an easy solution.

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

If people are going to use total deaths of flu for comparison then they have to use the total deaths of this virus over the entire year. Taking bets that number is over 100k by the end of 2020

Yeah raw fatality number comparisons are already looking weaker...if we are less than two months into this and already have over 37k...and someone said the average flu season brings 40-60k? This might already be worse in that statistical category, smh I mean...has the flu ever killed that many in under two months?

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

Pork chops 

First heard them described as that 51 years ago. The Principal at the Arkansas High School I was student teaching at took one look at me and said, “ Boy, tomorrow morning I only want to see the bone on those pork chops”. As I Remember, the town was in a dry county (Prohibition still in effect)  Very friendly and kind hearted folk though. As always ....

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6 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Do you know why Trevor said the he would be "skeptical" of the results?

 

Yeah he goes on to explain in that thread.  Stuff is a little above my pay grade but i think the assumptions about how good the test is is one of the reasons.  One of the reasons mentioned in the other thread is the study relied on volunteers, it wasn’t random, so it may be biased to those who were sick and wanted confirmation. 

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10 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

If people are going to use total deaths of flu for comparison then they have to use the total deaths of this virus over the entire year. Taking bets that number is over 100k by the end of 2020

 

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah raw fatality number comparisons are already looking weaker...if we are less than two months into this and already have over 37k...and someone said the average flu season brings 40-60k? This might already be worse in that statistical category, smh I mean...has the flu ever killed that many in under two months?

 

Daily reminder that the flu death counts are modeled.  The coded counts are far less.  Now, there is a ton of attention on COVID-19, so I don't think there is an extreme underreporting (other than what is already known) but the epidemiologists will certainly model COVID-19 after the fact and likely increase the death counts.

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5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

 

Daily reminder that the flu death counts are modeled.  The coded counts are far less.  Now, there is a ton of attention on COVID-19, so I don't think there is an extreme underreporting (other than what is already known) but the epidemiologists will certainly model COVID-19 after the fact and likely increase the death counts.

It's why they call it the "flu burden" because the flu deaths are modeled in such a way that deaths indirectly related to the flu are incluced there too. 

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10 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

If you have ten minutes, this is worth reading. Pretty sad.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52311877

One thing that's been really prevalent is how rapidly COVID19 spreads in a closed environment compared to the flue et al.  Nursing homes, military ships, meat packing plants.  Once it's inside your place of work it just goes through the population like wildfire.

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34 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

 

Daily reminder that the flu death counts are modeled.  The coded counts are far less.  Now, there is a ton of attention on COVID-19, so I don't think there is an extreme underreporting (other than what is already known) but the epidemiologists will certainly model COVID-19 after the fact and likely increase the death counts.

 

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

One thing that's been really prevalent is how rapidly COVID19 spreads in a closed environment compared to the flue et al.  Nursing homes, military ships, meat packing plants.  Once it's inside your place of work it just goes through the population like wildfire.

Expect to see more of this in places that 'rush' to get back to normal. The availability of fast testing is still somehow elusive, and it's the SoS at the federal level. Pence says the testing capacity is there to reopen. Okay.

 

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