OSUmetstud Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Globally, no. About 285,000 deaths from swine flu, and we have herd immunity to flu.... Idk. You seem like a dude who mainly cares about Americans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The rationale for every single shutdown nationally was to avoid overwhelming hospitals. Flatten the curve is 100% about that. There is a shifting narrative now to say it was about readying ourselves for the fall wave, but that is revisionist BS. My memory isn't that bad. I know and it was the best decision to make a month ago. We are beyond that initial crush that every leader was concerned about, so it makes sense if services aren’t as strained as they once were. that doesn’t mean it was a bad choice to make, it means it worked and continues to work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: It is a shame. I know I don’t want to get this virus, or my kid. I hope I don't get it, but I feel confident that if I get it I will be fine. I don't worry about my kids. Stats are very strong that kids are functionally immune to serious issues with this, which is very different than flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 I mean 3 weeks ago MD was clearing not-yet graduated med students to help with patients for goodness sakes, obviously there was strain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: I know and it was the best decision to make a month ago. We are beyond that initial crush that every leader was concerned about, so it makes sense if services aren’t as strained as they once were. that doesn’t mean it was a bad choice to make, it means it worked and continues to work This. It looks like people are falling into the trap of saying the numbers aren’t that bad, so why are we shutting down. When it simply means that the shut downs are working. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: It is a shame. I know I don’t want to get this virus, or my kid. Ive heard if your child gets the virus and needs to be hospitalised you cant go in with them. That would be the hardest part for any parent. It would just crush my wife and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: I hope I don't get it, but I feel confident that if I get it I will be fine. I don't worry about my kids. Stats are very strong that kids are functionally immune to serious issues with this, which is very different than flu. I’m glad you feel confident. Not everyone views things as you do, stats or not. A little empathy for some is okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I know and it was the best decision to make a month ago. We are beyond that initial crush that every leader was concerned about, so it makes sense if services aren’t as strained as they once were. that doesn’t mean it was a bad choice to make, it means it worked and continues to work I have no issues with the shutdown calls. Hogan made the right decision on that and has handled this well so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: This. It looks like people are falling into the trap of saying the numbers aren’t that bad, so why are we shutting down. When it simply means that the shut downs are working. Yup. We all knew it was coming Just now, Chris78 said: Ive heard if your child gets the virus and needs to be hospitalised you cant go in with them. That would be the hardest part for any parent. It would just crush my wife and I. Same, let’s hope none of us have to deal with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: I mean 3 weeks ago MD was clearing not-yet graduated med students to help with patients for goodness sakes, obviously there was strain How much of that was prep based on bad models? Cuomo was screaming he needed 40k extra ventilators at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: My logic and math are fine. Your issue is that I am not valuing the life of an 80 year old with COPD and heart failure highly enough. That's your right, even if I don't agree. Your “that’s just the way it is” justification wasn’t really logic based. Lots of things were “just that way” and then we decided there was a better way and policy changed. You’re also dismissing younger people with asthma, COPD, diabetes, heart disease, and chemo patients who are also seeing relatively high rates of severe infection. You are also dismissing the seriousness of this to people who survive. Many live but face long difficult recoveries and even permanent lung impairments. But you are entitled to that opinion. All that said my post wasn’t solely about you. This is starting to branch off on tangents everywhere on every side. Every point of view has been given ad nauseam at this point. No ones mind is being changed here and so the debate has become an unproductive exercise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: I have no issues with the shutdown calls. Hogan made the right decision on that and has handled this well so far. So then why your argument? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: How much of that was prep based on bad models? Cuomo was screaming he needed 40k extra ventilators at the same time. No idea. I don’t work for Hogan to know what he was using to make his decisions. What Cuomo did isn’t any of my concern, I’m not a NY state resident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Idk. You seem like a dude who mainly cares about Americans. Global IFRs are important and the best data we have right now is from China and Europe. US data sucks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Due to the threat of inclement weather, (freeze warning) homeschool will be operating on a 2 hour delay tomorrow. Just so y’all know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, mappy said: So then why your argument? We shut down temporarily to slow the spread and reduce pressure on hospitals. I agreed with this rationale. But now some are talking about the second wave in the fall as a justification for continued shut down in a lot of places. We didn’t all sign up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: This. It looks like people are falling into the trap of saying the numbers aren’t that bad, so why are we shutting down. When it simply means that the shut downs are working. At some point we need to emerge from this and say the numbers are OK now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 It is interesting that the common refrain is that COVID-19 is a killer of old people, when it appears that it is far less skewed that way than the flu. At least in Virginia. COVID-19: Flu deaths (modeled, flu-related) - 25k for people 65+, 8.5k under 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: We shut down temporarily to slow the spread and reduce pressure on hospitals. I agreed with this rationale. But now some are talking about the second wave in the fall as a justification for continued shut down in a lot of places. We didn’t all sign up for that. I’m not sure that’s is argument, it’s why I asked him. the fall worry is legit, but I agree it should not be what drives decisions to open partly, or fully. We can plan for that however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: No idea. I don’t work for Hogan to know what he was using to make his decisions. What Cuomo did isn’t any of my concern, I’m not a NY state resident. He was using bad data from Italy like the other governors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: It is interesting that the common refrain is that COVID-19 is a killer of old people, when it appears that it is far less skewed that way than the flu. At least in Virginia. COVID-19: Flu deaths (modeled, flu-related) - 25k for people 65+, 8.5k under 65. Those numbers disagree with the rest of the world strongly... I don't put any stock in them. Where did you get that chart? It looks like no other place on earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: He was using bad data from Italy like the other governors. You know that for sure? Or you assume because Cuomo said he did out loud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Those numbers disagree with the rest of the world strongly... I don't put any stock in them. Wait, you’re legit questioning confirmed cases in Virginia? Why would those age numbers be wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Those numbers disagree with the rest of the world strongly... I don't put any stock in them. I don’t put any stock into flu death data. I think it is a convenient cause of death for many end-of-life situations. And they have to effectively guess at it anyway. This is dramatically different from the flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 What do you guys think? "We do not allow misinformation to circulate on Facebook which can lead to real-world harm," Clegg said in an interview with All Things Considered on Wednesday. "So if people say drinking bleach is going to help you vaccinate yourself against coronavirus — that is dangerous. We will not allow that to happen. We won't even allow folk to say social distancing makes no difference in dealing with this pandemic." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, mappy said: So then why your argument? I have been posting stats I have found intriguing. If you agree with a May gradual opening, we have no disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 If they "open" but they don't have the NFL season or let night clubs open.. then they might as well stay closed. Good night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: I have been posting stats I have found intriguing. If you agree with a May gradual opening, we have no disagreement. I agree it has to be gradual. I’m in no position to say when the best time to start that gradual opening is. Neither are you as far as I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: You know that for sure? Or you assume because Cuomo said he did out loud? It seems clear the governors were using the early 10%+ CFR data from Italy they had at the time. I don't know that for sure, but that's my guess. The governors are now ingesting better data hence the focus on reopening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I’m not sure that’s is argument, it’s why I asked him. the fall worry is legit, but I agree it should not be what drives decisions to open partly, or fully. We can plan for that however. We should be planning. i agree 100%. And i agree we should reopen (by state and locale) based on conditions on the ground. I think we found some common ground :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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