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COVID-19 Talk


mappy
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8 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

But then the total should be ultimately close to correct if it’s just about a lag. In other words, the reality reflecting a lag should have a lower peak (because deaths are going to counted later) than the original model projection. Italy’s already gone over what was the upper bound *final* total of the uncertainty range from the model’s projection a few days ago.
 

Here’s a pretty clear twitter thread about the symmetrical “forcing” in the IHME model and how it’s not working past peak for Italy, Spain, and New York:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009

Yeah, it doesn’t seem to follow a normal distribution type of pattern in new cases. The tail seems much longer than expected.

 

I was watching this back in January and this is actually why China used the extreme measures. They could get the cases to stop growing but it was too hard to get the cases back down to zero otherwise.

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Just now, supernovasky said:

Depends on how interconnected the areas are. Borders are porous in the US. Unless they somehow start enforcing county checkpoints. Which seems unlikely but who knows.

if you think the protests in MI are bad, imagine how awful people would riot if we started doing county by county checkpoints

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Just now, wxtrix said:

Yeah... save for the most isolated localities, it’s hard to believe we’ll be reopening much at all before June 1 and even that seems like a stretch.

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Hence why they have to use regional numbers :(

 

and god those protests in Michigan. Gonna be in history books for sure.

Sigh. No. Its not an either or type of thing. Just because you shouldn't use regional numbers doesnt mean you go to county by county checkpoints. There are options in the middle. 

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Just now, wxtrix said:

isolated localities aren’t going to open on their own. people need to cross county and state lines to work, shop, seek medical attention, etc.

the Cuomo cluster is a model other states will follow. i read that western states are already collaborating in the same way. and yesterday i was chatting online with a reporter for a WV paper who said another cluster of governors were also consulting in the same way for WV (most likely WV/OH/PA). that seems to be the logical way to assess risks. for example, we live in WV, my husband works in MD to support a facility in PA.

Agreed, it seems like a logical and good way of handling it.

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10 minutes ago, snowfan said:

County checkpoints? Where'd that idea come from? Let's not even.....

County checkpoints are dumb, not going to happen.

 

That's why I think most places are going to follow the model of looking at the general region when making their decisions.

 

Either way we're all sort of armchairing here. As it stands, it doesn't seem like most places are anywhere close to making the decision to reopen. Most places look like they are extending closures.

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. Aside from taking a walk in a large park only one trip to the supermarket approximately two weeks ago. That must’ve been it, but I’m in an apartment building. A lot of ways to catch something unfortunately. Not nearly as isolated as my last place. 

It's possible someone you know had it for a while and was asymptomatic. There are some estimates of 50% or more being asymptomatic. It's also possible it isn't COVID-19 and instead the flu or another respiratory illness, which are still around. But this is a good example of how entire families can have this virus and barely even realize it, which is why the total infected numbers are probably far higher than estimated. I think that's a much larger effect than the idea many people are dying at home in their beds without being counted. That idea doesn't make much sense beyond some outlier cases.

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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12325197

 

"Covid 19 coronavirus: US nurse 'not given mask to treat patients' found dead at home"

 

The treatment of our health care workers has been terrible in this pandemic. :-/

You have to follow up with these stories. There have been a few where it turned out the person actually didn't have COVID-19 or had a major undiagnosed underlying disease and bad luck on timing. But PPE for healthcare workers is of the utmost importance. They are impacted by the high viral load much more than anyone else.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

You have to follow up with these stories. There have been a few where it turned out the person actually didn't have COVID-19 or had a major undiagnosed underlying disease and bad luck on timing. But PPE for healthcare workers is of the utmost importance. They are impacted by the high viral load much more than anyone else.

Agreed. I wouldn't blame nurses from refusing to show up if they aren't given the proper PPE to treat their patients. 

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4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Agreed. I wouldn't blame nurses from refusing to show up if they aren't given the proper PPE to treat their patients. 

its honestly common sense. would you expect a fire fighter to show up to a fire without an oxygen tank and masks? a police officer with out a vest or gun? 

i hope this pandemic opens the eyes to many on how our front line workers need more than what they get on any given day. 

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45 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

At the end of the day, people are going to have to assess their own risk level and act accordingly. And hopefully they will continue to wash hands frequently; practice social distancing; and wear your mask when needed.

But we don’t see that being done everywhere. For example the thing in MI and in some other states. One small event like that can create a new issue that otherwise wouldn’t have happened. 

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i think everyone needs to start telling themselves that things like going to the community pool this summer, won't be happening. Concerts - nope. Sporting events - nope. Firework shows - nope. On and on and on. Its going to be quite some time before we are back to "normal".

 

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Just now, mappy said:

i think everyone needs to start telling themselves that things like going to the community pool this summer, won't be happening. Concerts - nope. Sporting events - nope. Firework shows - nope. On and on and on. Its going to be quite some time before we are back to "normal".

 

:( I was looking forward to pool season.

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1 minute ago, SnowtoRain said:

+220 hospitalized, is that the largest 24 hr increase?  

yes. 

this week has been especially bad regarding new hospitalizations, and its not surprising given how long it takes people from having mild symptoms to needing more care.

151 on the 12th for the 11th

115 on the 13th for the 12th

147 on the 14th for the 13th

109 on the 15th for the 14th 

 

 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

yes. 

this week has been especially bad regarding new hospitalizations, and its not surprising given how long it takes people from having mild symptoms to needing more care.

151 on the 12th for the 11th

115 on the 13th for the 12th

147 on the 14th for the 13th

109 on the 15th for the 14th 

 

 

Mappy - have you found where they have historical data for these numbers or are you looking back at your own snapshots?

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Just now, supernovasky said:

Mappy - have you found where they have historical data for these numbers or are you looking back at your own snapshots?

looking back at my own twitter thread. been posting those numbers daily since 3/14 when the MD dashboard went live.

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