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April 2020


donsutherland1
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4 minutes ago, acoolerclimate said:

It appears the both Central Park and Newark will not hit 70 Degrees this April. I did some research, but I can find how common this is. It is odd too, when Jan hit 70 and March hit 80 in Newark this year. Anyone know how often, when the last time was, that April failed to hit 70?

1940...it could be the first time January had a higher temp. 69 than April's 68...

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Clouds and somewhat cooler than normal conditions prevailed today.

Meanwhile, in the Southwest near record and record heat prevailed. High temperatures included: Flagstaff: 79 (old record: 78, 1992); Las Vegas: 99 (tied record set in 2013); Phoenix: 104; and, Tucson: 101.

Another storm will impact the region tomorrow and Friday. The potential exists for 0.50"-1.50" rain with some locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". The  highest amounts will likely be north and west of Newark and New York City.

In the wake of the system, warmer conditions will return this weekend. However, the milder conditions will likely be short-lived. Overall, the first 10 days of May could see readings average 1° to 3° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Some of the guidance is even colder.  
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May.

The SOI was +6.56 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.160.

On April 28, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.912 (RMM). The April 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.917.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East.

The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4°.

Overall, May will likely be cooler than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England region.

 

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The last day of April is averaging 56degs., or about 3degs. BN.

Month to date is  -2.7[50.2].          April will end at  -2.6[50.4].

The first 10 days of May are averaging (GFS)   -1.5[58.5] OP,    -6.0[54 0] ENS.

51* at 6am, wet.      53* by 11am.          56* by 3pm.

 

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This was the first April that Newark didn’t reach 70 degrees.It was also the 3rd lowest monthly max for NYC. First time that Islip stayed below 65 degrees in April. Also the first year  that both January and March had a warmer monthly maximum temperature than April.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 69 1
2 1940 70 0
3 1931 71 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1874 64 0
- 1873 64 0
2 1940 67 0
- 1875 67 0
3 2020 68 1
- 1883 68 0
4 1884 69 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 64 1
2 1988 68 0
- 1975 68 0
3 2014 69 0
- 1998 69 0
- 1984 69 0
- 1980 69 0
- 1978 69 0

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2020 70 62 80 69 80

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2020 69 62 77 68 77
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17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Continuing to really come down here and radar continues to fill in. Not going to underperform here today. Mesoscale models doing poorly so far with coverage of rain. NAM basically had nothing more than a few hours of poorly organized convection.

some places will crack 3 inches by tomorrow for sure.   

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