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April 2020


donsutherland1
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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

JB says 100mph wind gusts on LI.        Snow for Tues night?      It first appeared two weeks ago for around the 16th., then disappeared and reappeared on some runs.       What a March we could have had.

He’s off his rocker. I could see a few gusts out by great gull island to 72/73, that’s high end. I think Islip gusts to 62-63, and JFK the same. Low 60s. 

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Today saw partly cloudy skies with high temperatures reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s. Clouds will increase tonight.

Overnight, a rapidly deepening storm will track toward the Great Lakes. By tomorrow night, the storm could have a central pressure under 970 mb as it pushes through Quebec. Before then, this storm will spread periods of moderate to heavy rain into the region tonight into tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will likely total 0.75"-1.75" with some locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". Strong winds with gusts past 65 mph are likely tomorrow. The potential also exists for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Colder air should return for Tuesday.

This is a genuinely cold air mass. Earlier today, the temperature fell to -3° in Great Falls. The only other times the temperature fell below zero this late in the season was April 20 (-1°) and April 22 (-8°) in 2008.  

Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Sunday and Monday are among the days that could see temperatures reach above normal levels. The Plains States will likely experience much colder than normal readings. The potential exists for warming after April 24.

Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks.

Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was +15.50 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.695.

On April 11, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.179 (RMM). The April 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.066.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Brother, more than half the board will see warning level winds. I am sorry you live in a poor area for wind. Take a drive out to the island if you want to see a wind event...

I fully expect you to be disappointed by 5pm tomorrow. This has meh written all over it. People expecting march 2010 is laughable 

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I fully expect you to be disappointed by 5pm tomorrow. This has meh written all over it. People expecting march 2010 is laughable 

legit QLCS under 100kts at 900mb, not sure I agree with you.  Those who get under this won’t meh

image.thumb.png.01901a29e39c8f9e02491b8d75aef51f.png

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59 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I fully expect you to be disappointed by 5pm tomorrow. This has meh written all over it. People expecting march 2010 is laughable 

Agree, for NJ away from the coast. The wind events have been verifying well out here lately, as they usually do. Sorry its not the same for you in NJ. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 51degs., or 2degs. BN.

Month to date is +1.9[51.8].         Should be about +0.4[51.5] by the 21st.

51* here at 6am, rain.   53* by 9am.

26/36 mph at JFK by 8am.    31/44 mph at 9am.      36/51 mph at 10am.        30/47 mph at 11am.

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