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April 2020


donsutherland1
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6 hours ago, weathermedic said:

High wind watch just posted for the area for Monday. Winds can gust up to 70mph. 

Thats a problem for the field hospitals, like in Central Park. NWS implies concern over this

 

947 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

... HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... 

* WHAT, South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph  possible.

* WHERE, Portions of northeastern New Jersey, southern  Connecticut and southeastern New York, including New York City.


* WHEN, From Monday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS, Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.  Even sturdy and well secured tent structures could be damaged.  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gusts

received_280953866234221.jpeg

Wow widespread 55+ gusts even away from coast. Hurricane force gusts at coasts and most of LI. 

Latest GFS has 50-55mph sustained winds on LI and near the city. Really hope that's a joke. 

Above the surface it's like 90-100kts and some of that could mix down with convective elements in play. 

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11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The SPC actually scaled back the slight risk for portions of NJ and placed them in a marginal risk for now. We will see if things get bumped back further north in later outlooks.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

day2otlk_0600.gif

The problem is with the rain cooled air, would take some effort for air mass recovery later in the day.

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The next 8 days are averaging 51.5degs., or 2degs. BN.

Month to date is +2.0[51.7].         Should be about +0.3[51.5] by the 20th.

46* here at 6am.      52* by 9am.       56* by 5pm.     61* at 6pm!

The next 17 days are averaging 54.5 or about 0.50 BN.         Should be slightly AN by the 29th with this.

EURO has 3" and 30mph,   GFS/CMC have about 1.5" and the GFS has 40mph for tomorrow.      These are the peak average winds, not the Gusts.      Add about 10mph for JFK.

1 Mon 04/13 03Z 58 ° 59 ° 57 ° 48 ° SSW 16 SSW 45 SW 36 0.00 0.00 554 570 -16 ° 8 ° 10 ° 1020 100 % 5 °
24 Mon 04/13 06Z 56 ° 59 ° 56 ° 49 ° S 16 SSW 47 SSW 51 0.02 0.00 555 569 -14 ° 7 ° 10 ° 1017 100 % 2 °
27 Mon 04/13 09Z 56 ° 57 ° 56 ° 51 ° S 20 S 49 SSW 51 0.04 0.00 557 568 -13 ° 8 ° 9 ° 1013 100 % 7 °
30 Mon 04/13 12Z 55 ° 57 ° 55 ° 52 ° SSE 27 S 65 S 72 0.29 0.00 559 567 -11 ° 8 ° 10 ° 1009 100 % 7 °
33 Mon 04/13 15Z 58 ° 58 ° 55 ° 53 ° S 31 S 74 SSW 83 0.56 0.00 562 565 -12 ° 10 ° 12 ° 1004 100 % 9 °
36 Mon 04/13 18Z 62 ° 62 ° 55 ° 55 ° S 34 SSW 76 SSW 87 0.11 0.00 561 560 -12 ° 10 ° 14 ° 999 100 % 10 °
39 Mon 04/13 21Z 67 ° 67 ° 62 ° 48 ° SW 25 WSW 58 WSW 67 0.24 0.04 560 560 -14 ° 9 ° 16 ° 1000 84 % 5 °
42 Tue 04/14 00Z 61 ° 68 ° 60 ° 44 ° WSW 20 WSW 49 WSW 56 0.00 0.00 556 562 -16 ° 5 ° 11 ° 1007 60 % 1 °
45

Remember my nCV19 post weeks ago

warning of those tent hospitals being

blown away in these type of events?

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When the Euro indicates sustained winds at the coast near 50 mph, it’s not a stretch to see peak gusts of 70 mph or greater. The LLJ maxes out near +6 SD. Synoptic wind gusts would be 60-70 mph and any convective enhancement 70+.

8CCA98DF-9734-450C-8822-A82373905E41.thumb.png.a3b6be0ea40d59d90576d84d39871580.png
 

 

619444B2-1D76-43BF-862A-913C3742289F.thumb.png.74b4382106df02be9075bb3fe4b531c8.png

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

When the Euro indicates sustained winds at the coast near 50 mph, it’s not a stretch to see peak gusts of 70 mph or greater. The LLJ maxes out near +6 SD. Synoptic wind gusts would be 60-70 mph and any convective enhancement 70+.

8CCA98DF-9734-450C-8822-A82373905E41.thumb.png.a3b6be0ea40d59d90576d84d39871580.png
 

 

619444B2-1D76-43BF-862A-913C3742289F.thumb.png.74b4382106df02be9075bb3fe4b531c8.png

Wow near 6 SD into Long Island

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7 minutes ago, uncle W said:

36 here for two days in a row...ten lower than Central Park...

The woods that have surrounded my station for 50 years are scheduled for development sometime in the future...wonder if that will affect my temp readings. I've been lucky that that privately owned parcel was empty for so long.

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