Rtd208 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Another nice day out there. Current temp 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 66 here-great day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 partly sunny..68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Made it to 68° before sea breeze...First week of month +3.8° temp departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 8, 2020 Author Share Posted April 8, 2020 Today featured ample sunshine and more above normal readings. High temperatures included: Allentown: 70°; Bridgeport: 63°; Harrisburg: 68°; Islip: 64°; New York City: 68°; Newark: 68°; Philadelphia 65°; and, Poughkeepsie: 68°. Parts of the central and southern U.S. saw near record to record warmth. At St. Louis, the temperature reached 87°. At New Orleans, the temperature topped out at 88°, which surpassed the previous daily record of 86°, which was set in 1978 and tied in 1986. Across the Atlantic, record warmth pushed north and eastward into parts of Scandinavia and Russia. Record high temperatures included: Halli, Finland: 59°; Helsinki: 57°; Mikkeli, Finland: 59°; St. Petersburg: 66°; Tallinn, Estonia: 64°; Tampere, Finland: 61°; and, Vilnius, Lithuania: 68°. Cooler air will likely return just after April 10. Afterward, the next 1-2 weeks could see readings average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days. The Plains States could experience much colder than normal readings. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. The 4/6 0z run of the EPS weeklies supports such a scenario. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -8.22 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.719. On April 6, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.122 (RMM). The April 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.034. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Should be here in a few hours from nw PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Got a good view to the west and can see the "heat lightning" from the storms near Allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 53degs., or about 2degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging -4.0[49.5](43/56). We could be -1.7 by the 25th. with this. 55* here at 6am, street wet. 56* at 8am. 63* at 3pm. 66* at 4pm. 67* at 4:30pm. 52* by 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Picked up 0.27" of rain with the rain/storms that moved thru this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Near record April low moving through the Northeast next several days. It will snow over higher elevation and far enough north regions. Our area could see strong storms tomorrow followed by a freeze in the usually colder spots this weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 the first week of april is running +3 to +5f across the area despite a -nao the whole time. lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 54 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the first week of april is running +3 to +5f across the area despite a -nao the whole time. lol Welcome to the new normal. Actually it has allot more to do with the AO and the lack of cold air available to work with the NAO. I know you know this just making a point for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: the first week of april is running +3 to +5f across the area despite a -nao the whole time. lol The -NAO/-EPO limited the maximum temperature potential. So the high temperature couldn’t make it to 80 like other recent years. But the -PNA and warming climate gave us the warm departure. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 10 Missing Count 2020-04-10 68 3 2019-04-10 80 0 2018-04-10 64 0 2017-04-10 82 0 2016-04-10 80 0 2015-04-10 68 0 2014-04-10 67 0 2013-04-10 85 0 2012-04-10 71 0 2011-04-10 70 0 2010-04-10 92 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Another nice one out there today. Current temp 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Welcome to the new normal. Actually it has allot more to do with the AO and the lack of cold air available to work with the NAO. I know you know this just making a point for others. the extremes of April 6-8 are extremely laughable, look at what happened in 1982 and 2003 on the same date vs what happened in 1991 and 2010 lol 90s and big heat vs an all out cold blizzard and a significant snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Welcome to the new normal. Actually it has allot more to do with the AO and the lack of cold air available to work with the NAO. I know you know this just making a point for others. might see the cold next week for a few days as the trough moves east, but it will modify as it comes east so the -departures are not as robust as the midwest. Weeklies show us warming again by 4/22 give or take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 Clouds broke in parts of the region this afternoon sending temperatures into the 60s and even the 70s. High temperatures included: Allentown: 72°; Bridgeport: 54°; Harrisburg: 73°; Islip: 60°; New York City: 64°; Newark: 69°; Philadelphia: 75°; and, Poughkeepsie: 60°. Parts of the southern United States again saw record heat. Highs included: Kansas City: 88° (old record: 84°, 1905 and 2001); Miami: 92° (old record: 90°, 1953 and 2014); New Orleans: 88° (tied record set in 1948); St. Louis: 90° (old record: 89°, 1890); and, Topeka: 88° (tied record set in 1905). Across the Atlantic Ocean, record warmth again prevailed in many parts of Europe. Daily record highs included: Berlin: 73°; Capo Mele, Italy: 75°; Culdrose, UK: 64°; De Kooy, Netherlands: 66°; Diepholz, Germany: 72°; Dresden: 72°; Evreaux, France: 75°; Geilenkirchen, Germany: 77°; Genova, Italy: 77°; Goeree, Netherlands: 57°; Lille, France: 77°; London-Gatwick: 73°; Paris-Charles de Gaulle: 77°; Rotterdam: 73°; Rouen, France: 77°; and, Trieste, Italy: 75°. Cooler air will likely return just after April 10. Afterward, the next 1-2 weeks could see readings average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days. The Plains States could experience much colder than normal readings. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. The 4/6 0z run of the EPS weeklies supports such a scenario. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was +6.63 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.298. On April 7, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.158 (RMM). The April 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.119. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 there's a severe threat tomorrow. ewr area sounding: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Thats not a bad looking sounding. If HRRR holds, I can see SPC upgrading to a slight risk. Not really seeing a tor threat but I suppose there could be a weak spinup somewhere if a storm gets going ahead of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Wow I didn't expect this. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 52degs., or just about Normal. 50* at 6am. 60* with Thunder/Rain at 2pm. 55* at @2:10pm. The next 17 days are averaging about 52.5(45/60), or about 2degs. BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 7 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Wow I didn't expect this. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Cloudy and cool here currently. I wouldn’t expect much along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Some clearing, up to 61. Would at least expect some high gusts since we're under a wind advisory anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Severe Thunderstorm Watch just posted until 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Severe Thunderstorm Watch up! EVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 96 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 PM EDT THU APR 9 2020 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-039-092000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0096.200409T1600Z-200409T2000Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SALEM SOMERSET UNION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Some clearing, up to 61. Would at least expect some high gusts since we're under a wind advisory anyway Still mostly cloudy here with a cool breeze. Some gusty winds as the front comes through but I think this is meh for majority of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0096.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Still mostly cloudy here with a cool breeze. Some gusty winds as the front comes through but I think this is meh for majority of the area. the mid levels are cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Current temp is 63 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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