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Pittsburgh PA Spring and Summer 2020 Thread


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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Allegheny County

Issued by National Weather Service
Pittsburgh, PA
5:26 PM EDT Thu, Aug 27, 2020

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a


* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Beaver County in western Pennsylvania... Southeastern Lawrence County in western Pennsylvania... Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania... Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... Northeastern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania... Southwestern Clarion County in west central Pennsylvania...


* Until 630 PM EDT.


* At 525 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Rimersburg to 8 miles northwest of Kittanning to 7 miles east of Butler to Shanor-Northvue to Meridian to 6 miles west of Homeacre-Lyndora to near Zelienople, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages.


* Locations impacted include... Penn Hills...                     Monroeville... Cranberry...                      Greensburg... Indiana...                        Butler... Jeannette...                      Latrobe... Vandergrift...                    Kittanning... Homer City...                     Apollo...

This includes the following highways... Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania near mile marker 57. Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 34 and 79. Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 83 and 96. Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 81 and 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

 HAIL...<.75IN; WIND...60MPH

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
PAC003-051-125-129-272345-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0184.200827T2241Z-200827T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
641 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Southern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Southern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Northern Fayette County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 745 PM EDT.

* At 641 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from Bellevue to near Sturgeon-Noblestown to 6 miles west
  of McDonald, moving southeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some
           power outages.

* Locations impacted include...
  Pittsburgh...                     Penn Hills...
  Mount Lebanon...                  Bethel Park...
  Ross Township...                  Monroeville...
  McMurray...                       Greensburg...
  McKeesport...                     Uniontown...
  Jeannette...                      Canonsburg...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 22 and 57.
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 57 and 95.
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 40 and 63.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 61 and 83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 7918 3994 7947 3990 7986 4036 8043
      4042 8019 4054 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 311DEG 37KT 4050 8006 4042 8017 4038 8035

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

Brown

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

Well WTAE is the first to post their winter forecast. They went with above average Temps every month, 30-38 inches of snowfall with it being possible to see more depending on lake effect and if we get colder Temps. So basically the usual mix line is through the county. 

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4 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Well WTAE is the first to post their winter forecast. They went with above average Temps every month, 30-38 inches of snowfall with it being possible to see more depending on lake effect and if we get colder Temps. So basically the usual mix line is through the county. 

Maybe this year we get some NS love, with a few high end advisory clippers.

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This winter looks like it could be the strongest La Nina since the winter of  2010-11.. which, if we look back, Pittsburgh received 56.7" of snow that year, decently above the most recent 30-year average of 42" or so.  Now that's a simplistic look at the Nina (you can dive deeper into the specific east/west/central orientation).  I don't have the time right now to look much deeper.

I will, however, quickly compare other strong La Nina winters (anything below -1.0 value) to see how Pittsburgh has done historically in snowfall terms, starting with the most recent:

2011-12  //  Peak Nina value of -1.1 - Snowfall: 36.9"

2010-11  //  Peak Nina value of -1.7 - Snowfall: 56.7"

2007-08  //  Peak Nina value of -1.6 - Snowfall: 41.2"

1999-00  //  Peak Nina value of -1.7 - Snowfall: 27.1"

1998-99  //  Peak Nina value of -1.6 - Snowfall: 39.2"

1988-89  //  Peak Nina value of -1.8 - Snowfall: 21.7"

1984-85  //  Peak Nina value of -1.1 - Snowfall: 36.4"

1975-76  //  Peak Nina value of -1.7 - Snowfall: 35.6"

1973-74  //  Peak Nina value of -2.0 - Snowfall: 16.6"

1970-71  //  Peak Nina value of -1.4 - Snowfall: 59.9"

Average snowfall over these 10 winters: 37.1"

The mean Nina prediction right now favors one below -1.5.

I could keep going back further but figure records from that era are relatively meaningless given overall climate changes.  From this sample of 10 years, however, we see that the majority of these winters are below average in snowfall terms (7 out of 10).  One year is basically right on average, while two winters were above normal.  Once again, I admit this is a very basic analysis and does not include looking at other teleconnections or signals that could have driven the winter beyond the Nina/Nino state.

Still, even at the basic level, this isn't a promising look if you're a snowfall lover.  Assuming we manage a strong Nina, chances greatly favor a below-average snowfall season.  This could be considered bad news coming off one of the WORST snowfall seasons last year (22.4", lowest since 1990-91).

Ultimately, it isn't set in stone, however.  There are chances some other atmospheric condition could override or overpower the Nina and drive the dominant weather pattern.  The forecast for above-average temps all winter obviously coincides with a prediction for less snow than "normal," but again, it doesn't guarantee anything so long as there are actual cold spells from time-to-time.  On an additional note, I think I consider 2010-11 an outlier given it was the follow-up to the tremendous winter of 2009-10, which will remain unmatched for who knows how long.  Those winters were aided heavily by a record-breaking -AO, making the ENSO state much less important.

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22 hours ago, OutnOakmont said:

First rain/snow icon of the season on NOAA for Sunday night! I'm sure we'll be seeing many more of those damn mixes over the course of the season hahaha

Looks like the first accumulation of the season is possible tomorrow evening / night, probably only looking at a coating at best outside of the favored I80 / upslope regions but time to knock off the tracking rust. :snowwindow:

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  • 2 weeks later...

9NcNuYk.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 510
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   155 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western New York
     Western Pennsylvania
     Northern West Virginia Panhandle
     Lake Erie
     Lake Ontario

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
     600 PM EST.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Line of low-topped thunderstorms with strong to severe
   wind gusts should continue east-northeast from eastern Ohio across
   western portions of Pennsylvania and New York through early evening.
   Overall intensity should gradually diminish after sunset, but the
   risk for damaging winds may persist.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
   statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south of
   Franklin PA to 45 miles southeast of Rochester NY. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 509...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector
   25050.

   ...Grams

 

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
OHC013-029-067-081-111-PAC003-007-019-059-125-WVC009-029-051-061-069-
103-151945-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0205.201115T1906Z-201115T1945Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
206 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Monroe County in east central Ohio...
  Southeastern Harrison County in east central Ohio...
  Jefferson County in east central Ohio...
  Southeastern Columbiana County in east central Ohio...
  Eastern Belmont County in east central Ohio...
  Beaver County in western Pennsylvania...
  Southwestern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Northwestern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Western Greene County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Ohio County in northern West Virginia...
  Northern Wetzel County in northern West Virginia...
  Marshall County in northern West Virginia...
  Brooke County in northern West Virginia...
  Northwestern Monongalia County in northern West Virginia...
  Hancock County in northern West Virginia...

* Until 245 PM EST.

* At 205 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Calcutta to near New Martinsville, moving east
  at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts to 70 mph.

  SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

  IMPACT...Trees snapped and uprooted. Power outages can be
           expected.

* Locations impacted include...
  Pittsburgh...                     Ross Township...
  Wheeling...                       McCandless Township...
  Cranberry...                      Moon Township...
  Weirton...                        Steubenville...
  Washington...                     Franklin Park...
  East Liverpool...                 Aliquippa...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 215 and 225.
  Interstate 70 in West Virginia between mile markers 0 and 14.
  Interstate 70 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 24.
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 20 and 33.
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 21 and 84.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 32 and 64.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms are producing widespread wind damage. Seek shelter
inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4076 8001 3966 8025 3968 8105 4076 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 265DEG 40KT 4069 8061 3973 8083

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$


Severe Thunderstorm 

 

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
434 PM EST Tue Nov 17 2020

OHZ041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-073>076-WVZ510>514-180015-
Columbiana-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-
Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Westmoreland-
Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, 
Sharon, Hermitage, Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, 
New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, 
Brookville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, 
Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana, 
Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, 
Monessen, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle, 
Coopers Rock, Kingwood, Bruceton Mills, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, 
Hazelton, Parsons, Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas, 
and Canaan Valley
434 PM EST Tue Nov 17 2020

...BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING...

Brief snow showers into the evening hours may lead to travel
disruptions. Visibility reductions to one half mile and wind 
gusts to 30 MPH are possible in the heavier snow showers. These
may also produce a quick coating of snow, especially on bridges 
and overpasses, and create slick conditions on roads. Motorists
are urged to use caution while driving. Lower your speed and
increase following distances if you encounter heavy snow.
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