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March 26-28 Severe Threat


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2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:


It’s not Joplin. There were dead people laying on the ground everywhere

That's what I was getting at.  We probably would've been hearing about fatalities by now if it was going to be very big death toll.  Hopefully nobody died.

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Given the evolution of the storms in W IL, going to imagine lapse rates never really recovered — providing limited instability. Plenty of amazing shear throughout the column, maybe just too much given the assumed thermodynamic profile. 

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6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Given the evolution of the storms in W IL, going to imagine lapse rates never really recovered — providing limited instability. Plenty of amazing shear throughout the column, maybe just too much given the assumed thermodynamic profile. 

Thermos and lapse rates definitely killed our threat here. That morning wave was the nail in the coffin

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6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Yeah that pic is strange because structures around it are in fairly good shape in comparison. That pic is strange I’ll give you that.

It's certainly very puzzling. I'm also agreeing based on early guesswork that we're seeing EF3 damage but how did this car get so terribly mangled? That'd be a sign of EF4 winds.

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23 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

One of the IA warnings goes right up to the MS River. Can't imagine it will stay surface-based into WI though, given Madison is 45/43. Wasn't expecting this, though:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0257.html

SPC has baffled me all day, and then this. I don't know how they expect to get the greatest short-term threat for tornadoes out of elevated convection in southern Wisconsin.

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Waiting for the watch to be canceled here, glad I was telling friends and family all throughout todays prolonged rain and clouds not to be surprised if things do not play out as being forecast.

 

Not that I am complainging things went how they did, not what anyone needs right now, i just love a good  thunderstorm.

 

Seems more times than not when we don't have crapvection to deal with we either get capped, an outflow triggers a storm well before the forcing was forecast stabilizing things or just as today unfolded, things just linger well into the late morning early afternoon with no time to recover.

Luckily it's only March, still plenty of Spring left(all of it :lol: )

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Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

It's certainly very puzzling. I'm also agreeing based on early guesswork that we're seeing EF3 damage but how did this car get so terribly mangled? That'd be a sign of EF4 winds.

So far we’re only seeing damage in business districts, and a lot of the residential areas likely haven’t been reached yet, so there could very well be violent damage somewhere along the path that hasn’t been photographed or filmed yet. This is typical after a strike in a populated area. 

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