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March 26-28 Severe Threat


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10 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Although things are going to fire up later than initially thought I still think a tornado outbreak is still in the cards. Option B would be later this evening these cells merge into a QLCS with embedded tornadoes which is fairly common with high shear, low CAPE events, typically in early spring.

SPC meso has the shear relaxing 15-20 KT's over the next couple hours.  I'm with you, may not be a major outbreak but it won't take much to light the candle.  The possibility of a long tracker in the PDS area is still there.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see a watch issued farther east later this evening along the warm front.  KIND has a growing concern for that possibility.

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Just now, It's Always Sunny said:

KJBR 282205Z AUTO 26031G64KT 1 1/2SM -TSRA SQ FEW022 BKN043 OVC075 23/20 RMK AO2 PK WND 25064/2203 LTG DSNT ALQDS P0004 T02280200 $

This is the observation with the tornado passing just to the north of the airport I am assuming.

I'm surprised there isn't a PRESFR on the observation given the very close proximity event. 

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New warning is not a TORR, CC appears to show most detectable debris being "old" debris falling out of the FFD.

However, couplet did ramp back up there. Would have been a good time to use the "...THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES" wording in the new warning.

*EDIT: Quickly changed to TORR warning based on spotter report.

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Still a total dud south of the warm front in Iowa.  If the line doesn't pop in the next hour or so, Cedar Rapids will be in the clear.

I think our fate was sealed after that late wave of morning to afternoon storms. Then that feed of showers and clouds continued all day, at least in IL. Moisture quality seemed to be less than what was forecasted. Just goes to show you how a few variables being off can totally change an otherwise potent tornado setup. That's Jonesboro storm was insane. That tornado looked just like Tuscaloosa. Curious to see what the environment was near that storm

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