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March 26-28 Severe Threat


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Yes, PDS tornado watches can occur outside high risk. I've seen PDS tornado watches in moderate risk areas. I would be confounded if that happened today, but it's not like I'm in agreement with the SPC's products today. Definitely don't agree with their assessment of long track tornadoes from south central Missouri into Illinois. They're neglecting the wind profiles again which don't become favorable until the cells get into northeastern Missouri/Illinois. If there's a long track tornado in central to eastern Missouri, I'll eat my heart out.

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1 minute ago, twistingtornado said:

Yes, PDS tornado watches can occur outside high risk. I've seen PDS tornado watches in moderate risk areas. I would be confounded if that happened today, but it's not like I'm in agreement with the SPC's products today. Definitely don't agree with their assessment of long track tornadoes from south central Missouri into Illinois. They're neglecting the wind profiles again which don't become favorable until the cells get into northeastern Missouri/Illinois. If there's a long track tornado in central to eastern Missouri, I'll eat my heart out.

The LSX / STL area vertical wind profile has improved quite a bit as the low-level jet has started backing. 

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triple point

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
224 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES  HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL GUTHRIE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 300 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 224 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENFIELD,  
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
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19 minutes ago, twistingtornado said:

Yes, PDS tornado watches can occur outside high risk. I've seen PDS tornado watches in moderate risk areas. I would be confounded if that happened today, but it's not like I'm in agreement with the SPC's products today. Definitely don't agree with their assessment of long track tornadoes from south central Missouri into Illinois. They're neglecting the wind profiles again which don't become favorable until the cells get into northeastern Missouri/Illinois. If there's a long track tornado in central to eastern Missouri, I'll eat my heart out.

Look at the VWP from DMX before deciding that.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 69  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA  
  PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
  NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL  
  900 PM CDT.  
   
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5  
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  

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KDVN VWP currently exhibits 84kt 0-6km shear coupled with ~400m^2/s^2 0-1KM SRH... Assuming the wind profile is similar in SE IA south of the warm front, the atmosphere is absolutely primed for discrete supercells capable of producing numerous significant tornadoes. 

EDIT: 90/80 probs on that PDS watch.

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 69  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA  
  PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
  NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL  
  900 PM CDT.  
   
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5  
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  

Decent size PDS TOR watch box

ww0069_radar.gif.5da9dcdaab423513cd0972fd3f10ccb6.gif

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

DP's have actually been falling across S-SE IA and NE MO.

yes they mixed out some...but seem a little higher towards the MS river...

storms near MS river still struggling to organize

It could be that there is too much shear and not enough instability?

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

CU is sparse and struggling to maintain south of US-36 in MO.

That'll probably change in the next couple hours. Better forcing is still lagging the dryline/PCF, evident by the CU field across E KS.

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