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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..


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11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I have no issue wearing a mask. I wear one everywhere I go. I also wear one all day at work. I'm just talking about scientists being incorrect, and it isn't infrequently.

Just watched a piece on channel 4 about beer and brain health in the elderly. According to the study, by the American Journal of medicine no less, states that a woman who consumes 8 glasses of beer or wine in 1 week shows a less likely chance of having dementia vs a woman who does not consume that amount. For men the amount of beer was doubled for the same results. However it was just last year the same journal reported ANY amounts if alcohol was bad for overall health!!! It's these inconsistencies and contradictions that make me question science and related research. 

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3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Just watched a piece on channel 4 about beer and brain health in the elderly. According to the study, by the American Journal of medicine no less, states that a woman who consumes 8 glasses of beer or wine in 1 week shows a less likely chance of having dementia vs a woman who does not consume that amount. For men the amount of beer was doubled for the same results. However it was just last year the same journal reported ANY amounts if alcohol was bad for overall health!!! It's these inconsistencies and contradictions that make me question science and related research. 

I look at this as a subtle nuance and not a contradiction.  Alcohol is bad for the body, there are no two ways about it.  But in very select circumstances, alcohol probably has affects on other underlying conditions, like in this case, dementia.  That doesnt mean that alcohol is good for you, or even recommended, they just happen to find a unique set of circumstances where it might mitigate the severity of another ailment.  Medicine isnt black and white, it is very complex to understand how it is all connected.  I think it is still very accurate to say that alcohol is not good for the body in any amount. I wouldn't recommend drinking because it may help prevent another disease 30 years from now.  The collateral damage from drinking might cause another condition or outweigh any other potential value.  This type of article should be a starting point for further studies on why alcohol might temper the effects of dementia which would lead scientists to a better cure or medicine (not alcohol) for preventatively treating dementia.  It should not encourage people to drink in hopes that it prevents this horrible disease that you may or may not get years later.  It's all about context.  

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As for the masks, there are several issues at play.  When the disease was first emerging, they didn't want to encourage mask wearing as a way to prevent catching it as it simply isnt effective that way.  Now that the disease is entrenched and everywhere, along with asymptomatic spreading (which is a super complicated topic and hard to study) they just want everyone to wear masks as a way to reduces the amount of particles spraying out of all our mouths.  Masks are just about mass containment of airborne particulates and obviously effective from a standpoint of preventing shit from flying out of our mouths and lungs.   The situation has changed since the early days, masks are now a great tool in mitigating spread, they do not do a whole lot for the wearer for themselves, that's why its team effort.  I wear a mask for everyone else.  Everyone else wears a mask for me.  Make sense?

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

I look at this as a subtle nuance and not a contradiction.  Alcohol is bad for the body, there are no two ways about it.  But in very select circumstances, alcohol probably has affects on other underlying conditions, like in this case, dementia.  That doesnt mean that alcohol is good for you, or even recommended, they just happen to find a unique set of circumstances where it might mitigate the severity of another ailment.  Medicine isnt black and white, it is very complex to understand how it is all connected.  I think it is still very accurate to say that alcohol is not good for the body in any amount. I wouldn't recommend drinking because it may help prevent another disease 30 years from now.  The collateral damage from drinking might cause another condition or outweigh any other potential value.  This type of article should be a starting point for further studies on why alcohol might temper the effects of dementia which would lead scientists to a better cure or medicine (not alcohol) for preventatively treating dementia.  It should not encourage people to drink in hopes that it prevents this horrible disease that you may or may not get years later.  It's all about context.  

Another vital point is this: science proceeds based on hypothesis testing, which is a *falsification* process. Scientists subject a theory to repeated attacks in order to disprove it. They test a theory against case facts, or alternative explanations.For us to have scientific knowledge, it is *absolutely necessary* that scientists sometimes be wrong. Claiming that contradictory hypotheses are somehow proof that scientists don't know what they claim to know is a fundamental misunderstanding of scientific knowledge.

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20 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

As for the masks, there are several issues at play.  When the disease was first emerging, they didn't want to encourage mask wearing as a way to prevent catching it as it simply isnt effective that way.  Now that the disease is entrenched and everywhere, along with asymptomatic spreading (which is a super complicated topic and hard to study) they just want everyone to wear masks as a way to reduces the amount of particles spraying out of all our mouths.  Masks are just about mass containment of airborne particulates and obviously effective from a standpoint of preventing shit from flying out of our mouths and lungs.   The situation has changed since the early days, masks are now a great tool in mitigating spread, they do not do a whole lot for the wearer for themselves, that's why its team effort.  I wear a mask for everyone else.  Everyone else wears a mask for me.  Make sense?

 N95 masks will offer the wearer a decent amount of protection...it's why medical professionals wear them.  A cloth "face covering" certainly protects "others" more than the wearer, however, I'd argue that even a cloth covering does offer varying degrees of protection to the wearer vs. nothing, depending on a multitude of factors. 

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The emergence of a pandemic affecting the respiratory system can result in a significant demand for face masks. This includes the use of cloth masks by large sections of the public, as can be seen during the current global spread of COVID-19. However, there is limited knowledge available on the performance of various commonly available fabrics used in cloth masks. Importantly, there is a need to evaluate filtration efficiencies as a function of aerosol particulate sizes in the 10 nm to 10 μm range, which is particularly relevant for respiratory virus transmission. We have carried out these studies for several common fabrics including cotton, silk, chiffon, flannel, various synthetics, and their combinations. Although the filtration efficiencies for various fabrics when a single layer was used ranged from 5 to 80% and 5 to 95% for particle sizes of <300 nm and >300 nm, respectively, the efficiencies improved when multiple layers were used and when using a specific combination of different fabrics. Filtration efficiencies of the hybrids (such as cotton–silk, cotton–chiffon, cotton–flannel) was >80% (for particles <300 nm) and >90% (for particles >300 nm). We speculate that the enhanced performance of the hybrids is likely due to the combined effect of mechanical and electrostatic-based filtration. Cotton, the most widely used material for cloth masks performs better at higher weave densities (i.e., thread count) and can make a significant difference in filtration efficiencies. Our studies also imply that gaps (as caused by an improper fit of the mask) can result in over a 60% decrease in the filtration efficiency, implying the need for future cloth mask design studies to take into account issues of “fit” and leakage, while allowing the exhaled air to vent efficiently. Overall, we find that combinations of various commonly available fabrics used in cloth masks can potentially provide significant protection against the transmission of aerosol particles.

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On 6/30/2020 at 6:36 AM, Thinksnow18 said:

Just watched a piece on channel 4 about beer and brain health in the elderly. According to the study, by the American Journal of medicine no less, states that a woman who consumes 8 glasses of beer or wine in 1 week shows a less likely chance of having dementia vs a woman who does not consume that amount. For men the amount of beer was doubled for the same results. However it was just last year the same journal reported ANY amounts if alcohol was bad for overall health!!! It's these inconsistencies and contradictions that make me question science and related research. 

A good journal doesn’t mean the paper is robust.  Hopefully the peer reviewers were careful looking at the data for the high beer consumption article.  Even in good journals you see backtest overfit and you get a false positive.  I would be suspicious of that.

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It's here. Finally. Spring training 2.0. Or make that summer camp. Or is it summer training? In any case, Major League Baseball begins its strange 2020 odyssey on Wednesday in the strangest of ways -- but appropriate for the times: testing for a virus that didn't exist a year ago. If cleared, workouts will begin on Friday in major league ballparks across the country. Here's what you need to know.

 

Trying to play through a pandemic

What does a typical day at spring training 2.0 look like?

The actual workouts won't look that different from a February or March day in Arizona or Florida except there will be only one diamond for use. That means some staggered practices, whether that's pitchers throwing bullpens followed by batting practice or vice versa. Pitchers eventually will throw to their own hitters as the latter group tries to find its timing without playing a lot of exhibition games. When everyone is ready, there will be intrasquad games in place of those exhibition contests.

Before any of it happens, of course, players will get their temperatures checked and be tested for COVID-19 starting on their arrival day at camp and continuing every other day. Any temperature above 100.4 and they'll be sent home.

How often will players be tested?

Every other day unless their temperature exceeds 100.4. Then they'll be tested -- no matter the day -- and sent home. They also will be required to take their own temperatures before coming to the ballpark. Anyone with a fever will be told to stay away.

How many players are sitting out so far? Do we expect more in the days to come?

So far, Ian Desmond of the Rockies and Mike Leake of the Diamondbacks, along with Ryan Zimmerman and Joe Ross of the Nationals, have all decided to opt out of the 2020 season -- without pay. Each has his own reasons, which could include a family member who is high risk or a pregnant wife. Rumors persist that there will be more players who opt out. Stay tuned

Are there exhibition games? Intrasquad?

Teams can play up to three exhibition games at the end of summer camp. That can be against a regional opponent -- like Mets vs. Yankees -- or against the team they will face in the opening series of the season. Until then, it's all intrasquad with MLB umpires overseeing them

Are all 30 teams at their MLB stadium or are there exceptions?

With recent COVID-19 outbreaks in Florida and Arizona, it made the decision to hold summer camp at home cities that much easier.

How will teams address fans gathering outside the ballparks?

They'll discourage it. In some cities, that will be easy. In others, not so much. Players won't come near the fans so the hope is there will be no point in congregating after a while. But it's a concern.

How will umpires get ready for the season ahead?

A team of three umpires will embed themselves at each summer camp, working live bullpen sessions and intrasquad games. For the final couple of days of training, teams will play each other, bringing together six umpires for final prep before the regular season. Additionally, three minor league umpires will embed with each taxi squad and be ready in case a regular umpire is sick or injured.

How will baseball be played differently this year?

First, there are some significant rules changes, aside from the coronavirus protocols (such as no spitting or pitchers being allowed to carry a wet rag in their back pocket to use for moisture instead of licking their fingers):

• All National League games will include the designated hitter.

• In extra innings, each team will begin with a runner on second base. The runner will be the player in the batting order immediately preceding that half-inning's leadoff hitter (or a pinch runner).

• As previously planned, all relief pitchers must face a minimum of three batters (unless the inning ends).

• Opening Day rosters will feature 30 active players culled from each team's 60-man player pool. The active roster will be trimmed to 28 players on the 15th day of the season and then to 26 players on the 29th day. There will be no limitations on the number of pitchers (as previously required in a new rule change). Teams will be permitted to carry three players from their taxi squads on road trips, one of whom must be a catcher.

• The trade deadline is Aug. 31; Sept. 15 is the postseason eligibility deadline.

• The standard injured lists will be 10 and 45 days and there will be a separate COVID-19 injured list for players who test positive, have a confirmed exposure to COVID-19 or exhibit symptoms requiring self-isolation.

• The schedule will be regionally based, with teams playing 40 games within the division and 20 interleague games against the corresponding geographical division.

As for on-field strategies, some things we might see:

• Due to the short summer camp training session, starters will likely pitch fewer innings the first two or three times through the rotation. You could see things like tandem starters -- two starters throwing three innings in the same game -- and several teams have already announced they plan to go with a six-man rotation. The Braves are a perfect example of a team that could piggyback starters, with a deep rotation that includes Mike Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz, Cole Hamels, Max Fried, Felix Hernandez, Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint.

• In general, with the expanded rosters for the first month, expect to see more bullpen usage (although the three-batter rule will eliminate some of the churn). The short season and importance of every game means managers may rely more heavily on their best relievers as they won't have to worry as much about having to keep them fresh for six months and then the playoffs. Look to see more four- and five-out saves from closers.

• The extra roster spots at the start of the season means we could see more pinch-running/defensive-replacement types used as bench players, a class of player that has largely disappeared in the past couple of decades. The extra-inning baserunner rule in particular means having a speed player on the bench would be of value.

• The bunt may not be dead! Sacrifice bunts from non-pitchers are rare these days and now pitchers won't be batting, but the extra-inning baserunner rule could lead to some sacrifice bunting.

What are some baseball-related injuries to watch?

The big one is Aaron Judge's cracked rib, originally suffered last September but not diagnosed until early March. He reportedly just started to hit off a tee, so we'll know a lot more about his timetable once he reports to summer training. Giancarlo Stanton (calf strain) and Aaron Hicks also would have missed the start of the original season. Stanton should be fine while Hicks has resumed taking batting practice.

 

Some other injury news:

• Among those who would have missed the start of the season but should now be OK to go: Justin Verlander of the Astros (groin surgery), James Paxton of the Yankees (back surgery), Cole Hamels of the Braves (shoulder), Rich Hill of the Twins (elbow), Austin Adams of the Mariners (torn ACL), Yoenis Cespedes of the Mets (heel), Nick Senzel of the Reds (shoulder).

• Likely to miss start of the season: Mitch Haniger, Mariners (torn adductor muscle and herniated disk).

• Out for the season: Chris Sale (Red Sox), Noah Syndergaard (Mets), Luis Severino (Yankees), John Brebbia (Cardinals), Jameson Taillon (Pirates), Chris Archer (Pirates). All except Archer (who had thoracic outlet surgery) had Tommy John surgery.

• Returning from Tommy John surgery: Shohei Ohtani (Joe Maddon already said the Angels plan to start him once a week), Michael Kopech, Carlos Rodon, Corey Knebel, Jordan Montgomery.

• Suspensions: Michael Pineda of the Twins will still have to serve the full 39 days remaining on his PED suspension.

• Opting not to play because of COVID-19: Ryan Zimmerman and Joe Ross (Nationals), Ian Desmond (Rockies), Mike Leake (Diamondbacks).

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29389596/everything-need-know-mlb-2020-season-restart-plan-begins

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Seroconversion of a city: Longitudinal monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in New York City

By conducting a retrospective, cross-sectional analysis of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in a sentinel group (enriched for SARS-CoV-2 infections) and a screening group (representative of the general population) using >5,000 plasma samples from patients at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City (NYC), we identified seropositive samples as early as in the week ending February 23, 2020. A stark increase in seropositivity in the sentinel group started the week ending March 22 and in the screening group in the week ending March 29. By the week ending April 19, the seroprevalence in the screening group reached 19.3%, which is well below the estimated 67% needed to achieve community immunity to SARS-CoV-2. These data potentially suggest an earlier than previously documented introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into the NYC metropolitan area.

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On 6/30/2020 at 10:34 AM, DeltaT13 said:

As for the masks, there are several issues at play.  When the disease was first emerging, they didn't want to encourage mask wearing as a way to prevent catching it as it simply isnt effective that way.  Now that the disease is entrenched and everywhere, along with asymptomatic spreading (which is a super complicated topic and hard to study) they just want everyone to wear masks as a way to reduces the amount of particles spraying out of all our mouths.  Masks are just about mass containment of airborne particulates and obviously effective from a standpoint of preventing shit from flying out of our mouths and lungs.   The situation has changed since the early days, masks are now a great tool in mitigating spread, they do not do a whole lot for the wearer for themselves, that's why its team effort.  I wear a mask for everyone else.  Everyone else wears a mask for me.  Make sense?

I would argue that a mask helps the wearer just as much as it prevent them from touching their mouth, nose, even rubbing eyes - main virus entrances. 

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Not sure if anyone here saw it but not looking good for Bills fans wanting to see a game this season. My main thought is if this is true and a New York State law, how would that be fair that we (assuming at least some other states will follow) are not allowed to have fans but other teams are. Seems like quite the unfair advantage and have to wonder if they would have to level the playing field and ban fans across the entire league. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/07/no-fans-will-be-allowed-to-attend-buffalo-bills-games-during-covid.html%3foutputType=amp

 

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32 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Not sure if anyone here saw it but not looking good for Bills fans wanting to see a game this season. My main thought is if this is true and a New York State law, how would that be fair that we (assuming at least some other states will follow) are not allowed to have fans but other teams are. Seems like quite the unfair advantage and have to wonder if they would have to level the playing field and ban fans across the entire league. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/07/no-fans-will-be-allowed-to-attend-buffalo-bills-games-during-covid.html%3foutputType=amp

 

Cuomo wants to run for president soon. He's making this extremely political. First he said it was all about flattening the curve. We've done that already. There are only 226 people in the ICU in the entire state right now. Now he wants to make movie threatres, gyms, sporting venues upgrade there AC units to be able to better filtrate the air inside these places? He just placed the entire state on lockdown for nearly 4 months. Does he honestly think these places have the money to do this? After a successful vaccine is found it takes upwards of 6 months to even get enough doses to give to everyone in the country to have any type of success. Does that mean we are another full year away from fully opening without restrictions?

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6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Cuomo wants to run for president soon. He's making this extremely political. First he said it was all about flattening the curve. We've done that already. There are only 226 people in the ICU in the entire state right now. Now he wants to make movie threatres, gyms, sporting venues upgrade there AC units to be able to better filtrate the air inside these places? He just placed the entire state on lockdown for nearly 4 months. Does he honestly think these places have the money to do this? After a successful vaccine is found it takes upwards of 6 months to even get enough doses to give to everyone in the country to have any type of success. Does that mean we are another full year away from fully opening without restrictions?

It’s really not a big deal for places to upgrade their AC systems. They can just use HEPA filters which are readily available and not that expensive. They capture particles down to .0.01 microns in size and Covid-19 particles are approx 0.125 microns in size so its highly effective at filtering out covid 19. On top of that places can easily add UV lights into their ductwork to help kill any particles that somehow make it past the hepa filter which captures 99.99% of particles. Again another thing that really isn’t that expensive to do. I do agree that it’s kind of silly that only those certain businesses are required to upgrade their HVAC systems but other places like restaurants, big box stores, grocers, ect., are not. I think if we do not see a huge long term reduction in cases across the country (where we are back under 20k cases a day nationwide, or with increased testing we drop our National positive percentage rate consistently below 5 % which is the guideline on what is recommenced before a state even considers reopening things, we will continue to have restrictions in place until a vaccine is found and distributed to enough people for it to be effective. This is all if we don’t see surges of cases again with people from states with outbreaks don’t come here and start things going significantly in the wrong direction again, or we don’t see another surge in the fall in which case I can definitely see Cuomo dialing things back again though I don’t ever think we will go full lockdown mode again like we did in March-May. Unfortunately the restrictions are something that’s not going away anytime soon as much as we all want it to, we’re in it for the long haul and we just have to adapt to this temporary new way of life. 

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12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Cuomo wants to run for president soon. He's making this extremely political. First he said it was all about flattening the curve. We've done that already. There are only 226 people in the ICU in the entire state right now. Now he wants to make movie threatres, gyms, sporting venues upgrade there AC units to be able to better filtrate the air inside these places? He just placed the entire state on lockdown for nearly 4 months. Does he honestly think these places have the money to do this? After a successful vaccine is found it takes upwards of 6 months to even get enough doses to give to everyone in the country to have any type of success. Does that mean we are another full year away from fully opening without restrictions?

It's possible he wants to run for president, but Biden is the Dem candidate now. I don't much like him, but it's really hard to imagine him not winning --  I don't think it's controversial to say that Trump hasn't made it a priority to attract votes that he didn't win last time, which is backfiring on him now. Republicans may be facing big losses, but they really have made their successful years count. Maybe Cuomo thinks he can run in 2024 to either succeed Trump or if Biden is in his 80s and steps down? But he has to realize how much he will be held culpable for what was essentially a bloodbath in the state's nursing homes. 

Even with the capital markets being a little bit down over the last year, total US market cap is 1.5x the entire GDP of the country, so money exists to upgrade climate control systems with HEPA filtration, install UV lights, put in thermal imaging cameras and staff them. We're going to pay one way or another, so it would be a good investment, if we could get a political consensus to make it happen. It would be a good time to work in climate systems and the safety industry, or better yet, to start a business to install such systems. Forcing herd immunity onto the country looks worse and worse as we recognize that this disease has dangerous sequelae even for many young and healthy survivors. Consigning a few percent of the public to death or a severely limited life as a survivor (extremely dependent upon public services or hard-pressed families) will be political suicide.

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13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I was surprised, it was a full on blood test.

Same when I got mine from Erie County. They took a surprising amount for the antibody test. I wonder if they're reserving vials of blood for future comparison testing or studies.

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8 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

It’s really not a big deal for places to upgrade their AC systems. They can just use HEPA filters which are readily available and not that expensive. They capture particles down to .0.01 microns in size and Covid-19 particles are approx 0.125 microns in size so its highly effective at filtering out covid 19. On top of that places can easily add UV lights into their ductwork to help kill any particles that somehow make it past the hepa filter which captures 99.99% of particles. Again another thing that really isn’t that expensive to do. I do agree that it’s kind of silly that only those certain businesses are required to upgrade their HVAC systems but other places like restaurants, big box stores, grocers, ect., are not. I think if we do not see a huge long term reduction in cases across the country (where we are back under 20k cases a day nationwide, or with increased testing we drop our National positive percentage rate consistently below 5 % which is the guideline on what is recommenced before a state even considers reopening things, we will continue to have restrictions in place until a vaccine is found and distributed to enough people for it to be effective. This is all if we don’t see surges of cases again with people from states with outbreaks don’t come here and start things going significantly in the wrong direction again, or we don’t see another surge in the fall in which case I can definitely see Cuomo dialing things back again though I don’t ever think we will go full lockdown mode again like we did in March-May. Unfortunately the restrictions are something that’s not going away anytime soon as much as we all want it to, we’re in it for the long haul and we just have to adapt to this temporary new way of life. 

Except there are some really old AC/Heating systems installed in these large places of business, especially malls. Having talked to a guy who has been doing heating/cooling for decades in my office today, it would be quite the investment...What he is asking is different then installing a new air filter. 

 

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Still no cases here in Albion TWP lol

 

61020map-678x381.jpg

Just ordered my pods container:(

Had it shipped to a Poconos storage unit as I should be up there no later than September..

At least the summers are enjoyable even more so than here and they get quite a bit of precipitation..

Looking at some of the stats, in 2011 they had over 80"of liquid, 75" in 2018 lol

Screenshot_20200702-205307.png

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12 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Still no cases here in Albion TWP lol

 

61020map-678x381.jpg

Just ordered my pods container:(

Had it shipped to a Poconos storage unit as I should be up there no later than September..

At least the summers are enjoyable even more so than here and they get quite a bit of precipitation..

Looking at some of the stats, in 2011 they had over 80"of liquid, 75" in 2018 lol

Screenshot_20200702-205307.png

When are you moving there? At least you're still in the forum! They have decent totals down there, and good retention at that elevation. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Where did you find that data wolf? Can you post Buffalos? 

It’s from Wikipedia.... I’ve been using it while looking up a lot of towns out west for a possible move and not all towns/cities have one or one as extensive as others...

Scroll down and click on geography 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo,_New_York
 

 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

When are you moving there? At least you're still in the forum! They have decent totals down there, and good retention at that elevation. 

I'm leaving for jersey on the 17th of July, pup sitting for the in-laws for a couple weeks as they will be in Maine, heading to the Poconos sometime in August or September as long as everything goes as planned lol

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Thirty-one players were positive for COVID-19 in Major League Baseball's first round of coronavirus testing, the league and players' union announced Friday.

Seven staff members also tested positive. The 38 positives represent 1.2% of 3,185 samples collected for the first set of results. For comparison, the NBA on June 26 reported a 5.3% rate of positive tests (16 of 302) among players, while MLS announced a positive rate of 2.7% (18 of 668) among players two days later.

The positives come from 19 MLB teams, the league said. All 30 teams began training camp Friday at their home ballparks.

 

MLB will not identify who tests positive for the coronavirus, citing privacy laws. Teams also will not specifically announce a COVID-19 injured list placement for a player who is removed from the club after testing positive; it will just be a trip to the injured.

If a player's test is positive for COVID-19, he will be instructed to self-isolate immediately. He will be treated with protocols that are detailed in the operations manual that the league and union agreed to as part of negotiations that resulted in a 60-game 2020 season.

Cleveland Indians outfielder Delino DeShields Jr. was one player announced Friday as testing positive. Chris Antonetti, the team's president of baseball operations, said DeShields tested positive before coming to Cleveland.

The 2020 MLB season is set to begin July 23 or 24.

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