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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..


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Haha! He's gonna get some nice sores from all the acid...

Went to Aldi in Clay for the "once every two weeks" grocery trip....it was so somber in there. The last time I remember it being soooo quiet and sort of like everybody was in a state of shock was during 9/11. Almost everybody was extremely respectful of the personal space between themselves and others. Still haven't been able to get there when bread is available, so bagels it is...again...lol. I have been trying to find yeast to make my own, but have been having trouble finding it. Also, the frozen broccoli each time I have gone has been out too. All the other veggies are available, but never the broccoli. Sort of odd. Maybe because of its nutritious value and price combination. I opted for more expensive Asparagus. 

So happy they have the plastic shields for their employees now.

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1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

really it should be 19 out of 120 because those are the only resolved cases technically as of now. Of the 607 active cases some of them are bound to die as well...

You have to wait until the others resolve, it's a moving target.  The other thing eventually worth knowing is how many people die on a regular day statistically...in order to properly assess excess mortality. I don't know the answer but it'll be useful data for people to gauge whether this is a reasonable response or not given that we are self inflicting an economic Depression as a result (and the excess mortality that will inevitably result from that).

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Banksters...

JP Morgan's 'goal' is to reduce HELOCs by 75% to people who have equity in their homes and need money to survive. 

Banks get bailout; people get "go f*ck yourself"

And,

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/hours-its-start-treasurys-small-business-bailout-verge-collapse

This looks fugly.  

These are same banks, mind you, that just sold all $1.6 trillion in securities to the Fed to expand their balance sheets capacity in the past three weeks, and which also just benefited from the Fed's decision to remove Treasurys and deposits from the Fed's SLR test, freeing up another $1.6 trillion in liquidity.

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55 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Banksters...

JP Morgan's 'goal' is to reduce HELOCs by 75% to people who have equity in their homes and need money to survive. 

Banks get bailout; people get "go f*ck yourself"

And,

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/hours-its-start-treasurys-small-business-bailout-verge-collapse

This looks fugly.  

These are same banks, mind you, that just sold all $1.6 trillion in securities to the Fed to expand their balance sheets capacity in the past three weeks, and which also just benefited from the Fed's decision to remove Treasurys and deposits from the Fed's SLR test, freeing up another $1.6 trillion in liquidity.

“The bank’s goal is to slash application volume by as much as 75%.”

 

why are you so cynical? That’s the actual quote. And it makes sense. Weed out the unqualified. Processing applications takes time and money and you’re going to get a ton of people living paycheck to paycheck applying because we shut down the whole country.  Why give a bunch of money to people with no jobs whose homes are depreciating?

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1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

Banksters...

JP Morgan's 'goal' is to reduce HELOCs by 75% to people who have equity in their homes and need money to survive. 

Banks get bailout; people get "go f*ck yourself"

And,

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/hours-its-start-treasurys-small-business-bailout-verge-collapse

This looks fugly.  

These are same banks, mind you, that just sold all $1.6 trillion in securities to the Fed to expand their balance sheets capacity in the past three weeks, and which also just benefited from the Fed's decision to remove Treasurys and deposits from the Fed's SLR test, freeing up another $1.6 trillion in liquidity.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2010/01/wall-street-bailout-executive-compensation/

The government has more honor then Corporate America.

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5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Don't want to chime in on the earlier posts, but a lot of bad information. I'm licensed in NYS for life, accident, and health insurance. Medicaid is for poor people, Medicare is available for those 65+ and doesn't cover all expenses related to health care. (Usually 80%) Nursing homes aren't covered or assisted living. You need long term care insurance for that. You can pay extra premiums for assisted living I believe, but not nursing homes. The premiums can be expensive. Long term care insurance is EXTREMELY expensive. Medicaid has a 5 year look back period of all income/property exchange. The state tracks EVERYTHING you own or have owned and can penalize you if you start giving stuff away when you start to get sick to protect your assets. I've seen peoples entire life savings evaporated by medical expenses. This is why trusts and transfer of assets should begin long before you get too old or sick. The medicaid limits are below:

image.thumb.png.a6f31fe84e8d377c818dd26f56eecc4f.png

In regards to Medicare which usually only covers part A. This link below describes what you get when you turn 65 automatically.

https://www.aarp.org/health/medicare-insurance/info-01-2011/understanding_medicare_the_plans.html

Part A:

When you apply for Medicare, you will automatically be enrolled in Part A. It covers hospital stays, hospice care and some skilled nursing care that you may need after being hospitalized for a stroke, a broken hip or other episodes that require rehabilitation in a nursing home or other facility so you can get back on your feet.

Part B: (COST EXTRA)

This part of Medicare covers doctor visits, lab tests, diagnostic screenings, medical equipment, ambulance transportation and other outpatient services.

Unlike Part A, Part B involves more costs, and you may want to defer signing up for Part B if you are still working and have insurance through your job or are covered by your spouse’s health plan. But if you don’t have other insurance and don’t sign up for Part B when you first enroll in Medicare, you’ll likely have to pay a higher monthly premium for as long as you’re in the program.

Part C: (COST EXTRA)

If original Medicare is a buffet, Part C is more like a sit-down meal since a private insurer bundles together parts A and B and most likely D into one comprehensive plan.

If you decide on a Medicare Advantage — or MA — plan, you’ll still have to enroll in parts A and B and pay the Part B premium. Then, in addition, you will have to choose a Medicare Advantage plan and sign with a private insurer.

Part D: (COST EXTRA)

This is the part of Medicare that pays for some of your prescription drugs. You buy a Part D plan through a private insurer. Each generally has some premiums and other out-of-pocket costs, either flat copays for each medication or a percentage of the prescription costs. They also may have an annual deductible.

The only place is disagree is Medicaid being specific to the poor. As stated earlier my daughter has it and it's not predicated on my wife and my income but her health condition she will have her whole life. My concern does not come from the lack of people who can get Medicaid, it's the abuse of Medicaid from people who are are rigging the system for all sorts of benefits. I also have my life accident and health license. The long term care policies have changed quite a bit from when I first began where you had to guess the daily amount you wanted to I sure for, say $350 a day. It has since changed to a number of years and a total amount of coverage. What hasn't changed is how costly it is, but if you can use a fixed vehicle specific for premiums you can offset that cost out of pocket. 

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

The only place is disagree is Medicaid being specific to the poor. As stated earlier my daughter has it and it's not predicated on my wife and my income but her health condition she will have her whole life. My concern does not come from the lack of people who can get Medicaid, it's the abuse of Medicaid from people who are are rigging the system for all sorts of benefits. I also have my life accident and health license. The long term care policies have changed quite a bit from when I first began where you had to guess the daily amount you wanted to I sure for, say $350 a day. It has since changed to a number of years and a total amount of coverage. What hasn't changed is how costly it is, but if you can use a fixed vehicle specific for premiums you can offset that cost out of pocket. 

By the time you need long term care insurance, the premiums are for the wealthy only. Do you have information on your daughters exemption? It might have been a one off type of deal. I have never heard of something like that. Was she considered disabled at the time?

https://www.health.ny.gov/publications/0548/medicaid.htm

Medicaid is a program for low-income persons whose income and/or resources are below certain levels. Eligible populations include children, pregnant women, single individuals, families and individuals certified blind or certified disabled. In addition, persons with medical bills may be eligible for Medicaid even if their income and resources are above the allowable Medicaid income levels. Medicaid income and resource levels generally change on January 1 of each year. Only certified blind individuals, certified disabled individuals, and individuals over 65 have a resource test. Children and families may be eligible for Child Health Plus or Family Health Plus if they are not eligible for Medicaid.

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1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

“The bank’s goal is to slash application volume by as much as 75%.”

 

why are you so cynical? That’s the actual quote. And it makes sense. Weed out the unqualified. Processing applications takes time and money and you’re going to get a ton of people living paycheck to paycheck applying because we shut down the whole country.  Why give a bunch of money to people with no jobs whose homes are depreciating?

Why give out loans that are backstopped by the taxpayer? Meaning the SBA stimulus loans in particular.   It's not even the Banks money!  Are you effing kidding me? And then have the gall to demand higher interest rates that they will make $ from when these ****bags routinely blow themselves up and require bailouts?  Are you serious?

And i would think the usurious interest rates banks charge for Credit Cards would cover their "costs" especially during a time of national crisis...and since the Fed has taken their sh*t loan book off they're hands... I won't even get into the Great Lie of Mark to Market...the scam that keeps on giving...

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11 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Why give out loans that are backstopped by the taxpayer? Meaning the SBA stimulus loans in particular.   It's not even the Banks money!  Are you effing kidding me? And demand higher interest rates that they will make $ from when these ****bags routinely blow themselves up and require bailouts?  Are you serious?

And i would think the usurious interest rates banks charge for Credit Cards would cover their "costs" especially during a time of national crisis...and since the Fed has taken their sh*t loan book off they're hands... I won't even get into the Great Lie of Mark to Market...the scam that keeps on giving...

I work for a large bank and we are not raising rates on Home equities or mortgages. Home equities are tied to prime rate, mortgages are tied to the 10 year treasury note, credit cards are tied to the LIBOR rate. The prime rate changes with the federal reserve, the treasury note changes daily, and the LIBOR rate changes monthly. The LIBOR rate is being replaced with the prime rate in Jan. of 2021. Right now the rates for lending are lower then they have ever been in history.

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I work for a large bank and we are not raising rates on Home equities or mortgages. Home equities are tied to prime rate, mortgages are tied to the 10 year treasury note, credit cards are tied to the LIBOR rate. The prime rate changes with the federal reserve, the treasury note changes daily, and the LIBOR rate changes monthly. The LIBOR rate is being replaced with the prime rate in Jan. of 2021. Right now the rates for lending are lower then they have ever been in history.

Read the article on the looming small business bailout fiasco...if that doesn't spell it out I don't know what will.

I'm far from a hapless Bernie Bruh but ... If we're going down I'm all in for going full Vlad the Impaler.  What did Rahm Emanuel say? Never let a good crisis go to waste?

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Read the article on the looming small business bailout fiasco...if that doesn't spell it out I don't know what will.

I'm far from a hapless Bernie Bruh but ... If we're going down I'm all in for going full Vlad the Impaler.  What did Rahm Emanuel say? Never let a good crisis go to waste?

I have had around 40 small businesses call me asking about the federal program. I still don't know much about it. I'm sure I'll get some information soon.

Looks like banks have the option to charge what they feel like in regards to rates on the loans? That can't be right.

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12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I have had around 40 small businesses call me asking about the federal program. I still don't know much about it. I'm sure I'll get some information soon.

Looks like banks have the option to charge what they feel like in regards to rates on the loans? That can't be right.

I don't think the Banks can charge what they like on the SBA loans. They are bitching though...

Update (1800ET): And so Wall Street wins again.

After we warned earlier that the SBA's $350BN Paycheck Protection Program, which is expected to be launched at midnight tonight and is meant to bailout America's small and medium business (<500 employees), may never even get off the ground because the proposed interest rate on the loan of 0.5% is too low lender banks (alongside with various other considerations as listed below) with JPM saying it “will most likely not be able to start accepting applications on Friday, April 3rd as we had hoped", in a press conference late on Thursday, Steven Mnuchin said that he will double the interest rate on the SBA loan from 0.50% to 1.00% in order to appease banks seeking higher interest rates to participate in the Treasury's bailout program and lend money to the same taxpayers who bailed them out 12 years ago.

These are same banks, mind you, that just sold all $1.6 trillion in securities to the Fed to expand their balance sheets capacity in the past three weeks, and which also just benefited from the Fed's decision to remove Treasurys and deposits from the Fed's SLR test, freeing up another $1.6 trillion in liquidity.

Furthermore, these loans are guaranteed by the federal government and don’t require collateral, and will be forgiven if funds are used for payroll costs, mortgage interest, rent and utility payments for two months and if businesses retain and rehire employees. So bank don't take any risk - why are they charging any interest at all, or rather why do they have any say in what the rate should be?

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Here's some factoids... final #'s aren't in yet, obviously. These are a snapshot in time, to ponder.

-The ratio of jobs lost to Coronavirus deaths so far is 1,665 to 1.

-We’ve lost 46 jobs for every confirmed case of Covid-19 in the U.S.

-6.6 million jobless claims reported this week. The highest claims posted for a week during the financial crisis was 665,000.

-In two weeks we surpassed all of the job losses from the 2008 financial crisis by 2 million. And the S&P500 is 10% off the lows...

-So far the S&P has gone up ~1% per million confirmed job losses.

-The S&P 500 is up 6.3% from the Christmas Eve 2018 lows and since then we’ve lost 10 million jobs and counting...

 

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25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Do you guys in Buffalo know why Buffalo seems to be having its own fast increase? I know it's a very large city, but when comparing to similar cities of its size, it seems higher. Are there any large groups/companies where a large population was exposed at the same time?

I know at least 24 Buffalo Firefighters tested positive and at least 50 more suspected to have it. Also 17 Buffalo Police Officers have tested positive with over 25 more suspected to have it. The over 700 cases is still vastly under reported. They are only testing essential personnel, elderly, pregnant women. Think of the mass majority of people who are showing symptoms are being denied testing. We're more likely at about 7000 if not more if everyone could get tested who should.

https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/24-buffalo-firefighters-test-positive-for-covid-19-17-buffalo-police-officers-test-positive/

To top it off the next batch of testing we were supposed to receive has been sent to NYC. We have next to no test left to begin with. 

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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

I know at least 16 Buffalo Firefighters tested positive and at least 50 more suspected to have it. The over 700 cases is still vastly under reported. We're more likely at about 7000 if not more if everyone could get tested who should.

Wow! Yeah, from the personal reports that some of you (especially Buffwx) have reported, it sounds like many more are infected. I am wondering just what the actual numbers are for here in Onondaga county. If you're actually at 7 thousand, I could see us being at a couple thousand.

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9 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I know at least 24 Buffalo Firefighters tested positive and at least 50 more suspected to have it. Also 16 Buffalo Police Officers have tested positive. The over 700 cases is still vastly under reported. They are only testing essential personnel, elderly, pregnant women. Think of the mass majority of people who are showing symptoms are being denied testing. We're more likely at about 7000 if not more if everyone could get tested who should.

 

To top it off the next batch of testing we were supposed to receive has been sent to NYC. We have next to no test left to begin with. 

I don't know if they are that high. I have a 28 year old friend who got tested. He was negative.

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12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wow! Yeah, from the personal reports that some of you (especially Buffwx) have reported, it sounds like many more are infected. I am wondering just what the actual numbers are for here in Onondaga county. If you're actually at 7 thousand, I could see us being at a couple thousand.

Can't remember who I heard it from but some expert on TV said whatever the reported numbers are to multiply it by 11 to get the real number of cases. Also can't find the source but I'm really searching hard to find it that Erie County is far and away the lowest  tested county per capita in New York State. At one point I remember Erie County had only preformed about 1100 test with 1,000,000 population where as Onondaga County had performed like 2300 test with 450,000 population in the same time frame. It really is getting bad here with how many people I know personally who have this or likely have it because they've been in contact with a positive testing person but can't get testing. 

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5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Can't remember who I heard it from but some expert on TV said whatever the reported numbers are to multiply it by 11 to get the real number of cases. Also can't find the source but I'm really searching hard to find it that Erie County is far and away the lowest  tested County per Capital in New York State. At one point I remember Erie County had only preformed about 1100 test with 1,000,000 population where as Onondaga County had performed like 2300 test with 450,000 population in the same time frame. It really is getting bad here with how many people I know personally who have this or likely have it because they've been in contact with a positive testing person but can't get testing. 

I wonder why the total tests available are so low there. I have been trying to research if all the test kits are just handed out at random to certain locations, or was it first come, first serve for whatever hospital/town got to them first?

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7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

By the time you need long term care insurance, the premiums are for the wealthy only. Do you have information on your daughters exemption? It might have been a one off type of deal. I have never heard of something like that. Was she considered disabled at the time?

https://www.health.ny.gov/publications/0548/medicaid.htm

Medicaid is a program for low-income persons whose income and/or resources are below certain levels. Eligible populations include children, pregnant women, single individuals, families and individuals certified blind or certified disabled. In addition, persons with medical bills may be eligible for Medicaid even if their income and resources are above the allowable Medicaid income levels. Medicaid income and resource levels generally change on January 1 of each year. Only certified blind individuals, certified disabled individuals, and individuals over 65 have a resource test. Children and families may be eligible for Child Health Plus or Family Health Plus if they are not eligible for Medicaid.

Could have been child’s health plus that covered it. One way or another the it’s in the hospitals best interest to find a program that works. They can’t deny care if it’s non profit. 
 

As far as long term care goes you’re right, the cost is insurance cost prohibitive for many. This is going to sound insensitive but I think you have to plan for it. My wife’s family members that ended up in long term care paid out of pocket from their life savings and assets. My family members who end up in long term care will all become wards of the state. When you die ideally you should have as close to $0 as possible, taking money to the grave does nothing for you. 

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

By the time you need long term care insurance, the premiums are for the wealthy only. Do you have information on your daughters exemption? It might have been a one off type of deal. I have never heard of something like that. Was she considered disabled at the time?

https://www.health.ny.gov/publications/0548/medicaid.htm

Medicaid is a program for low-income persons whose income and/or resources are below certain levels. Eligible populations include children, pregnant women, single individuals, families and individuals certified blind or certified disabled. In addition, persons with medical bills may be eligible for Medicaid even if their income and resources are above the allowable Medicaid income levels. Medicaid income and resource levels generally change on January 1 of each year. Only certified blind individuals, certified disabled individuals, and individuals over 65 have a resource test. Children and families may be eligible for Child Health Plus or Family Health Plus if they are not eligible for Medicaid.

Yes she us considered disabled with her diagnoses. It's palliative in that she can never achieve full heart function, and had to have the 3 surgeries to compensate for the malformation. In regards to something WAY off topic here...has anyone looked at the 00z Hi res Euro this morning??? Thursday through Easter looks cold with chances for snow even in the lower elevations...talk about handing the dealer 50 bucks and letting him kick you in the nuts...

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If everyone wore a mask or face covering this virus would dwindle down much quicker, it seems that could be in the cards, at least recommended..

80% is better than 0% and these aren't even the good mask... Granted we have a shortage of the n95..

Scientists are not completely sure of all the ways that the Covid-19 virus is transmitted, but in a randomized control trial, participants who were told to use a surgical mask, and did so, were 80 percent less likely to contract respiratory illness.

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The end game strategy right now isn't eradication but herd immunity. Ultimately 60% or more of the global population will become infected. 

Once the rate of infection levels off and slows shouldn't we purposely inoculate healthy young adults who are able to quarantine while ill?

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