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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..


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7 hours ago, fujiwara79 said:

oh boy.  we've got a herd immunity guy here.

Sweden tried your approach.  They hoped that they would get herd immunity during the spring.  While the rest of the world would experience a second wave, Sweden would avoid it, or so they thought.  That hasn't happened.  They are nowhere near herd immunity even though they tried to get there.  Now they've backtracked and are issuing restrictions that are more stringent than what we have here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-24/sweden-says-it-sees-no-signs-herd-immunity-is-stopping-the-virus

 

I am somewhere between Herd Immunity and Full on Denier.. but anyway.. 

UPM executive reported that of all hospitalizations the vast majority of them were for overnight observations only.  Not counting deaths where COVID was present and but there was an obvious separate cause, he indicated that they had 0 deaths in the latest surge.  

How do we go from a couple hundred thousand cases in a 3 weeks and 30,000 people dead in the spring in NYC to 200,000 cases a day and no deaths?

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20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's spreading quickly around here. Quite a few people I know have confirmed infections. I didn't know anyone with it all summer. 

What do you think is driving the higher rates in Erie County?  That area seems to have been a “hot spot” relative to the rest of upstate NY all year.  Is it as simple as people refusing to wear masks and/or going about life as normal?

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2 hours ago, 40westwx said:

I am somewhere between Herd Immunity and Full on Denier.. but anyway.. 

UPM executive reported that of all hospitalizations the vast majority of them were for overnight observations only.  Not counting deaths where COVID was present and but there was an obvious separate cause, he indicated that they had 0 deaths in the latest surge.  

How do we go from a couple hundred thousand cases in a 3 weeks and 30,000 people dead in the spring in NYC to 200,000 cases a day and no deaths?

no deaths??? where???

 

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Some good news for Erie County small business

$19 million flowing to small businesses from Covid-19 relief program

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/19-million-flowing-to-small-businesses-from-covid-19-relief-program/article_2c03740e-332e-11eb-b499-77ddd5d018aa.html

Good news but 19 million is a drop in the bucket compared to the 93 million that was requested by the over 5000 businesses. They only have enough money right now to pay out the 19 million to 1300 businesses of the 5000+ that requested it. 

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You better figure out a way to vaccinate the US Dollar, and quickly.       It is making a new 1 Year low and support is collapsing.

It will take the Stock Market with it and bring on hyper-inflation.            Remember the deficit is now 3T/year.       It took from 1780-1992 to reach 3T National Debt.         Now it takes the deficit just a year to add that much more to the total debt.         It can never be repaid with real money.   

My Motto is:    I will be wrong until I'm right----and then I will really be right----and will scare even myself!  

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4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

no deaths??? where???

 

I think he's going by what one executive at one hospital told him, and extrapolating that to the entire country.  I'm surprised to see that level of inductive reasoning on a supposedly scientific message board.

We're probably going to hit at least 2000 deaths today, and we'll probably average around 2500 deaths per day during the upcoming peak.

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23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Some good news for Erie County small business

$19 million flowing to small businesses from Covid-19 relief program

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/19-million-flowing-to-small-businesses-from-covid-19-relief-program/article_2c03740e-332e-11eb-b499-77ddd5d018aa.html

Thats bad news IMHO.. the only way to save this country is to cut off all of this aid and let the markets take care of it. 

Same is true for schools.. if people want something to change.. we should boycott taxes or layoff teachers.  

Once you start making hard decisions.. backing people in to a corner.. sensible solutions will come

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

411 hospitalizations in Erie county now. We're almost double the last waves hospitalizations. Any website to see if this is putting strain on hospital systems yet? Flu season is in full swing as well.

image.thumb.png.e756decfa24ef95a1a7a437cd8023de9.png

Now do you realize why we need nationwide shutdown. You are crazy for thinking it's not necessary. Other day on fox news, they did survey on 1 million people, 93% of them said they wanted nationwide shutdown ASAP so it's going to happen soon once Biden walks in WH in Jan. 

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2 hours ago, brentrich said:

Now do you realize why we need nationwide shutdown. You are crazy for thinking it's not necessary. Other day on fox news, they did survey on 1 million people, 93% of them said they wanted nationwide shutdown ASAP so it's going to happen soon once Biden walks in WH in Jan. 

At this point I really don’t know if a full lockdown / shutdown would even make a dent in the spread rates.  Majority of spread right now is individuals being irresponsible at home.  I felt like back in March during the first shutdown no one really saw anyone outside of their home circle (or work circle for essential workers) and I think that made a world of difference dropping the infection rates.  It was a good 6 weeks where everyone just stayed apart and didn’t mingle with other home circles.  Fast forward to now and it seems like no one cares anymore.  So many people having get togethers in their homes, Halloween parties, football parties, thanksgiving dinner.  Might not seem like a big deal but having just 10 people from 3 different households get together is the difference between 2 infected people and 10 infected people.  The numbers just grow exponentially from there.  If the general population can’t act socially responsible at home we are still weeks away from flattening our curve.  There is so much emphasis being put on retail establishments for sanitation protocols, but the spread isn’t happening there.  It’s happening at the Sunday dinner table when the kids and grandkids are coming over to visit.

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Cuomo said 70% of spread is through at home gatherings which is impossible to stop. Unlikely we go to red. Should go back to Yellow as Niagara counties infection rate is higher than Eries right now. He brought out the live vaccine on his conference today. Said they are ready to distribute as soon as they get the ok from FDA in around 2 weeks.

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16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Cuomo said 70% of spread is through at home gatherings which is impossible to stop. Unlikely we go to red. Should go back to Yellow as Niagara counties infection rate is higher than Eries right now. He brought out the live vaccine on his conference today. Said they are ready to distribute as soon as they get the ok from FDA in around 2 weeks.

Yeah but only 170,000 doses of which all will go to nursing home residents and workers. It will be Feb-March until regular folks can get the vaccine. After Nursing home residents/workers get it , then it will be first responders and doctors/nurses, and other high risk individuals. 
 

I also don’t see us going back to yellow as Cuomo also just stated Erie County has the worst hospital situation in the entire State hence why no more elective surgeries again.

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16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Cuomo said 70% of spread is through at home gatherings which is impossible to stop. Unlikely we go to red. Should go back to Yellow as Niagara counties infection rate is higher than Eries right now. He brought out the live vaccine on his conference today. Said they are ready to distribute as soon as they get the ok from FDA in around 2 weeks.

too late to get vaccine right now since we are hitting 200k cases a day and 3k+ deaths and there's no way we will get vaccine this month. More likely in Feb 2021. 

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