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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..


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23 hours ago, wxtrix said:

so you're just another liar. you have no intention of getting covid but you want other people to be exposed to it and possibly die while you hide from the virus.

Heres the deal... there is no doubt that the corona virus is real.. it is a novel virus and as such it is proving to be a tough go.. especially for people in the end stages of life.  

That being said, I would argue that we are way closer to herd immunity than we think (irregardless of what the nonsense serological surveys are saying)

The numbers just dont make sense to me.. the reproductive rate of this virus is around 1.2 (even with social distancing)...I think this means that everyone person who gets the virus infects 1.2 people.  Given that we have 200,000 confirmed cases a day.. even with a crude exponential calculation, over 10 million people should be infected after just a couple of days 

200,000 -> 400,000 -> 800,000 -> 1,600,000 -> 3,200,000 -> 6,400,000 -> 12,800,000, and so on and so forth.

And thats starting out with the total number of infections being yesterdays total positives.. but in reality.. we should have several million active cases.. 

And all of this is just with confirmed laboratory positive... who knows what the real numbers are.  

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17 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

They better find somewhere else...I get what they’re trying to accomplish but that’s kind of crazy. 

None of this would have been a problem if they would have just had training camp.  They could have gotten all of this out of the way in August.  

Ed Orgeron said it best back in September..  "most of our players have caught it".. 

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6 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Heres the deal... there is no doubt that the corona virus is real.. it is a novel virus and as such it is proving to be a tough go.. especially for people in the end stages of life.  

That being said, I would argue that we are way closer to herd immunity than we think (irregardless of what the nonsense serological surveys are saying)

The numbers just dont make sense to me.. the reproductive rate of this virus is around 1.2 (even with social distancing)...I think this means that everyone person who gets the virus infects 1.2 people.  Given that we have 200,000 confirmed cases a day.. even with a crude exponential calculation, over 10 million people should be infected after just a couple of days 

200,000 -> 400,000 -> 800,000 -> 1,600,000 -> 3,200,000 -> 6,400,000 -> 12,800,000, and so on and so forth.

And thats starting out with the total number of infections being yesterdays total positives.. but in reality.. we should have several million active cases.. 

And all of this is just with confirmed laboratory positive... who knows what the real numbers are.  

The actual infections in the US are likely over 100 million. You cannot go based on confirmed cases as most are asymptomatic or minor symptoms. The CDC just said likely infections are 8 times confirmed infections. Between vaccines and herd immunity, this thing is toast come summer.

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37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The actual infections in the US are likely over 100 million. You cannot go based on confirmed cases as most are asymptomatic or minor symptoms. The CDC just said likely infections are 8 times confirmed infections. Between vaccines and herd immunity, this thing is toast come summer.

Precisely.. so we get about 30% of the nation even with all of this social distancing.. 

With no social distancing we would have hit the 70% sweet spot in about 1month back in March .. if schools and colleges were allowed to remain.. the vast majority of those cases would have been asymptomatic.. healthy population would build immunity and provide protection for those who dont do as well with this.. this would have saved lives.

Instead, the virus meanders its way through the elderly population.. one nursing home/ palliative care facility at a time..

Additionally, if hospital protocols would have been sensible (like they are today), tens of thousands of lives would have been saved by not putting people in medically induced comas.  

Fear has driven this from the beginning. As a result, countless lives have been lost.

 

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22 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Precisely.. so we get about 30% of the nation even with all of this social distancing.. 

With no social distancing we would have hit the 70% sweet spot in about 1month back in March .. if schools and colleges were allowed to remain.. the vast majority of those cases would have been asymptomatic.. healthy population would build immunity and provide protection for those who dont do as well with this.. this would have saved lives.

Instead, the virus meanders its way through the elderly population.. one nursing home/ palliative care facility at a time..

Additionally, if hospital protocols would have been sensible (like they are today), tens of thousands of lives would have been saved by not putting people in medically induced comas.  

Fear has driven this from the beginning. As a result, countless lives have been lost.

 

Thank god you are not in the medical field.....

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7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Thank god you are not in the medical field.....

It is not just me.. their are many from within the medical community and in academia feel the same way but we dont hear about this because of the "cancel culture". 

Doctors wont speak up because using the word "herd immunity" is about as bad as getting caught saying the N word as a politician. 

But there are a few.. in fact those that are at the absolute top of their field.. that are protected by Tenure and the reputation that proceeds them, that have the courage to speak up..

to name a few: 

Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.

Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

It is not just me.. their are many from within the medical community and in academia feel the same way but we dont hear about this because of the "cancel culture". 

Doctors wont speak up because using the word "herd immunity" is about as bad as getting caught saying the N word as a politician. 

But there are a few.. in fact those that are at the absolute top of their field.. that are protected by Tenure and the reputation that proceeds them, that have the courage to speak up..

to name a few: 

A professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.

Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.

 

 

......and there are countless other medical professionals and professors  who disagree with herd immunity as a method for controlling the virus. 

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22 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

It is not just me.. their are many from within the medical community and in academia feel the same way but we dont hear about this because of the "cancel culture". 

Doctors wont speak up because using the word "herd immunity" is about as bad as getting caught saying the N word as a politician. 

But there are a few.. in fact those that are at the absolute top of their field.. that are protected by Tenure and the reputation that proceeds them, that have the courage to speak up..

to name a few: 

Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.

Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.

 

 

Dr. Fauci Says a COVID-19 Herd Immunity Strategy Is ‘Total Nonsense’ | SELF

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21 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

all three of them are quacks and are behind the Great Barrington Declaration which has no basis in science or ethics.

not sure why the mods are allowing this complete garbage to be repeatedly posted on the wx-side.

Its called the "Upstate NY Coronavirus and Banter" thread.. so I would think that this would include opinions from both sides.

If it is just a place to post the daily positivity rate and pretend that kids dont spread corona virus in schools.. than maybe I should be be cancelled/ censored. 

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8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

......and there are countless other medical professionals and professors  who disagree with herd immunity as a method for controlling the virus. 

There are only two long term solutions. Herd immunity and eradication. If the vaccines are as good as advertised then eradication is possible. But in general flattening the curve is all about allowing the virus to spread at a slower rate, not stopping it completely. 

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28 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

There are only two long term solutions. Herd immunity and eradication. If the vaccines are as good as advertised then eradication is possible. But in general flattening the curve is all about allowing the virus to spread at a slower rate, not stopping it completely. 

The vaccine facilitates/ accelerates herd immunity.

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In regards to the Orchard Park gym owner...

An Orchard Park gym owner whose defiance of Covid-19 restrictions has earned him national attention has been accused of responding to a customer requesting a refund with a racist, profanity-laced attack.

Robert Dinero, owner of Athletes Unleashed, in July told the woman he would refund the $395 she was owed but not before calling her a "filthy, foreign, Third-World country piece of (expletive)" in his reply, which was punctuated with two other curse words

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/gym-owner-who-defied-covid-19-rules-slammed-over-racist-profane-email/article_bd9b4ab2-31a9-11eb-b6f6-5ba96c79750d.html.

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

In regards to the Orchard Park gym owner...

An Orchard Park gym owner whose defiance of Covid-19 restrictions has earned him national attention has been accused of responding to a customer requesting a refund with a racist, profanity-laced attack.

Robert Dinero, owner of Athletes Unleashed, in July told the woman he would refund the $395 she was owed but not before calling her a "filthy, foreign, Third-World country piece of (expletive)" in his reply, which was punctuated with two other curse words

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/gym-owner-who-defied-covid-19-rules-slammed-over-racist-profane-email/article_bd9b4ab2-31a9-11eb-b6f6-5ba96c79750d.html.

I highly doubt that will sway anyone who supports him.  Will be interesting to see how the county responds to him saying he will be open for business as usual tomorrow.  

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

I highly doubt that will sway anyone who supports him.  Will be interesting to see how the county responds to him saying he will be open for business as usual tomorrow.  

15k fine and more importantly he lost his Crossfit designation. A pretty huge deal for a crossfit gym. He likely shuts down long term due to this.

https://www.wgrz.com/article/money/business/crossfit-ends-affiliation-with-athletes-unleashed-after-email-surfaces/71-5af1e036-b626-4c68-bff6-4e09cf5a1421

" Dinero refuses to pay the fine and had planned to reopen his gym Monday, November 30 but he said after speaking with his legal team decided against it. "

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10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

NYS hospitalizations.

I think we see this go up as we enter the 2nd wave until the 2nd week of January. Hopefully by then we see a downward trend with some semblance of herd immunity/vaccines rolling out.

image.png.e0a8bd33ebee6e1547c19a5eb5fab13f.png

This is 100% what any shutdowns should be based on, in the local areas.  Keep the hospitals functioning and protecting the vulnerable.  When the hospitals are getting in trouble slow things down.  

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On 11/29/2020 at 12:57 PM, 40westwx said:

Precisely.. so we get about 30% of the nation even with all of this social distancing.. 

With no social distancing we would have hit the 70% sweet spot in about 1month back in March .. if schools and colleges were allowed to remain.. the vast majority of those cases would have been asymptomatic.. healthy population would build immunity and provide protection for those who dont do as well with this.. this would have saved lives.

Instead, the virus meanders its way through the elderly population.. one nursing home/ palliative care facility at a time..

Additionally, if hospital protocols would have been sensible (like they are today), tens of thousands of lives would have been saved by not putting people in medically induced comas.  

Fear has driven this from the beginning. As a result, countless lives have been lost.

 

oh boy.  we've got a herd immunity guy here.

Sweden tried your approach.  They hoped that they would get herd immunity during the spring.  While the rest of the world would experience a second wave, Sweden would avoid it, or so they thought.  That hasn't happened.  They are nowhere near herd immunity even though they tried to get there.  Now they've backtracked and are issuing restrictions that are more stringent than what we have here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-24/sweden-says-it-sees-no-signs-herd-immunity-is-stopping-the-virus

 

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