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Late Spring / Summer 2020 Thread


Carvers Gap
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5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I certainly hope the 12z GEFS and EPS ensembles are correct.  They do continue to imply threnghthe ridge backs westward.  The 12z GFS was all-in on that today...But when is it not?  LOL.  

No coherent MJO signal upcoming, until it strenghtens we should be at risk for some sort of subtropical ridge if its dirty or not who knows.I mentioned this on the ENSO thread,the MJO should strenghten for a time being into the IO towards the end of the month,least thats what it is showing right now,this should be a break until the MJO moves more into the Eastern IO,if it actually does,least thats my thinking

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Just a quick glance at overnight ensembles, and lots of model bias in play.  The EPS is showing how difficult it is to break down a big, summer heat ridge.  The GEFS and GEPS are trying to sneak some relief in later in the month into the East.  I do think the ridge backs West.  That is a pretty common theme on Weeklies modeling for whatever they are worth.  The real question is if the trough moves westward, does a ridge still belly into the SE under any sort of eastern GL trough?  That is not an uncommon setup during summer....western ridge with some ridging under a shallow eastern trough.   Still, the current pattern looks pretty similar to what we have had this summer - meaning big warm-ups with potential for the ridge to get knocked down.  We do have less BN temps in play at this point for any trough to draw from when compared to earlier this summer.  Would be nice to see fall come early for once in a blue moon!  Doubt that happens in a La Nina...but one can hope!  But like Jeff said...maybe we can just get this out of the way now.

I should add...my money is probably on a slightly watered down EPS right now.  GEFS has had an awful bias of late run troughs for months on end.  But hey, summer is gonna summer.  At least we had June which was pleasant.   Maybe we can steal a break again at the end of the month or in early August.

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Next week I sure hope we don't get a short-wave SER stuck under a GL trough; that would be real heat! Though prone to happen this time of year, happy to report I don't believe it'll happen.

If the ridge settles into the Southern Plains, there is heat risk for Memphis and West Tenn. If the ridge is Central Plains or otherwise northwest of our Region, the door is open for easterly waves below the soft underbelly. Oh it'd be humid, but still not intense heat. Plus scattered thundershowers. All those scenarios are more valid East Tenn.

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Not sure where to post this, but it is an interesting read on how forecast accuracy is down due to less flights because of COVID.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/18/weather/fewer-flights-covid-weather-forecast-hurricane-impact/index.html

 

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23 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like maybe a somewhat significant pattern shake-up is now to the point it might sneak inside of d10.  Fingers crossed.  It won''t be cool...just less hot.  Bout the best we can expect.  Ridge on the 12z EPS is definitely backing West, but will it happen?  IDK...hope so.

Looks to be a trough still going through East Asia around the mid week,this could give us a relief possibly towards the end of the month.least some lowering heights in the East but by the looks this won't be nothing but a brief reprieve as heights could  build right back in,least thats how it looks today

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La Nina summer is here.   As Jax noted, maybe a break for a couple of weeks...then more heat is possible.  La Nina heat patterns are probably some of the most difficult patterns to break down once in place.  Endless summer looks like a real possibility again this year.  Getting very dry IMBY.  This heat quickly bakes out whatever moisture is in the soil.  Of all wx patterns, I dislike La Nina summers the most...and it is not even close.  Thankfully we had June, but I would guess that September will be a summer month instead of fall this year...unless the CFSv2 could finally be right about something.  Not holding my breath.  Just hoping we don't go like last Sept/Oct.  That was brutal.  Thing is, the next couple of months will likely rival that, but at least it is during summer and not fall....but I am not ruling out early-mid Fall be fairly warm either. 

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Euro weeklies just (finally) followed the CFS cooler in the weeks ahead. Temps look near normal in our Region. Verbatim it's slight below western half Mid South and slight above East and Apps. Nationally (and internationally Canada) core AN anomalies shift back north, which lines up with the forecast +ABNA, driven by the forecast MJO. It's been persistent in the Indian Ocean promoting +ABNA.

So, maybe, this was our big heat wave for the summer. Still got weeks to go; we are still in the South. However teleconnections support the downshift next week perhaps being a pattern shift beyond just a break in the stronger heat. Again it's still normal and it's still July and August. Just not nuts.

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44 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Euro weeklies just (finally) followed the CFS cooler in the weeks ahead. Temps look near normal in our Region. Verbatim it's slight below western half Mid South and slight above East and Apps. Nationally (and internationally Canada) core AN anomalies shift back north, which lines up with the forecast +ABNA, driven by the forecast MJO. It's been persistent in the Indian Ocean promoting +ABNA.

So, maybe, this was our big heat wave for the summer. Still got weeks to go; we are still in the South. However teleconnections support the downshift next week perhaps being a pattern shift beyond just a break in the stronger heat. Again it's still normal and it's still July and August. Just not nuts.

LOL.  Of course the Euro Weeklies would follow the CFSv2 for once!   I should have stuck to my original thoughts!  I caved one run to early!!!!  LOL.  You all can send me a Christmas card if this heat leaves.  So, I am just going to disregard my Tuesday thoughts and revert to my Saturday thoughts.  Since those Tuesday comments, it has rained like crazy here and the LR models have moderated.  

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I’m getting screwed on the rain. Last two days I’ve only had a few hundredths. Today I got outflowed by the complex moving through N Knox Co. It blowed out just to my NW and refired to my East 4 miles where they got almost 2inches. Similar to yesterday with the complex that trained through Knoxville. You can see my location as “home” on RadarScope

 

86f28e0f5a97fce9c48b68fb67829930.png

 

 

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3 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

I’m getting screwed on the rain. Last two days I’ve only had a few hundredths. Today I got outflowed by the complex moving through N Knox Co. It blowed out just to my NW and refired to my East 4 miles where they got almost 2inches. Similar to yesterday with the complex that trained through Knoxville. You can see my location as “home” on RadarScope emoji2369.png

 

86f28e0f5a97fce9c48b68fb67829930.png

 

 

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Yep, SW Knox has been screwed too.  Stuff gets going in elevation, sometimes wanders into the valley but areas like mine just don't have the luck of storms steering into us.  Micro-climates are interesting.

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Yep, SW Knox has been screwed too.  Stuff gets going in elevation, sometimes wanders into the valley but areas like mine just don't have the luck of storms steering into us.  Micro-climates are interesting.

Getting a good slow soaker this morning.


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Not very often into summer you see East Asia correlate very well,but right now it seems to showing this,if its right is another thing.Sure looks like the MJO is finally going to get out of the IO into the Maritime,it sure should be signs past the Mid of August we see more a SER,definite pattern change upcoming,sure hope we dont get into a flash drought

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Regrettably it looks like more of a heavy rain and flooding event. Disgusting boundary been parked here since Comet Neowise got good. Ugh!

Boundary disappointment 1.0 was the Comet. Boundary disappointment 2.0 will be wasting decent flow aloft for early August severe. Rant!

On a brighter note, the heat will ease up. CFS is probably too cold, but the ECMWF ensembles and weeklies agree with less intense heat here. 

+ABNA signal continues to look hot for Canada and the Great Lakes. US Southeast soft spot does line up with the Korea trough @jaxjagman noted earlier. Then up North both Eastern Siberia and Eastern Canada have AN temps. +ABNA has been consistent most of summer so I think it adds credibility to the forecast.

The two weeks of heat here was hopefully just a tempo ridge expansion. Now we go back to the more traditional +ABNA. Hotter model runs run the risk of device advection. 

Thursday evening edit: Euro weeklies once again favor the downshift heat for the South. Canada is warm. US West is hot. Looks like a classic climate change signal. So the year we finally have football weather, will we have football?

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Had some pretty good tree damage at my neighbors rental house in Halls just a couple of miles from where I live. At my house the winds were not that serious 30ish mph but they were definitely swirling around and not so much straight line. Not suggesting a tornado but there was definitely some SE inflow and this damage was just NNE of me. A barn was destroyed by a tree. 11cb51668c8bba2001c5edc15ee2c0b2.jpg&key=91ea345f57d2e2a673fa94dada06e914421704411b6f2309dec6e376bb3837c4

815017bbb34c4c06a230b6ef023b26e4.jpg&key=c2e8cd4689844bc230dc12b67a57a056795320adb628a9c66877c1b4b1e42724

 

 

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That is crazy, Powell!

A quick glance at LR guidance...Just took a glance at the CANSIPS which just updated.  Next three months are August(BN), Sept(N), Oct(N)....  That is a pretty good trend on temps.  CFSv2 looks similar.  Have not seen the updated Euro seasonal yet.  A normal fall would be nice.  Euro Weeklies are warmer for sure.  Still, in the SE we appear be tucked underneath AN heights or the east of AN heights depending on the model.  Would very much enjoy some cooler nights in September vs the furnace that we had last year.   We are about to enter the time of year that the Euro Weeklies struggle - shoulder season.  So, I think we have about four more weeks where I trust it as the trump card.  During shoulder season, it often diminishes in accuracy until late November when it regains its form and flawlessly nails the forecast much AN temps for 12 straight weeks.  

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