Late Spring / Summer 2020 Thread

[Jessy89]

I don’t mind cool temps even in spring and summer. I’d love to average around 85 all summer with low humidity. You can do all you summer activities in 85 degrees


.

[jaxjagman]

That's still impressive for Mid May,if its close to being right

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI    LAT=  36.47 LON=  -82.40 ELE=  1519

                                            00Z MAY03
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SUN 00Z 03-MAY                  64.3    54.9    21004                     40    
SUN 06Z 03-MAY  64.6    56.3    57.2    49.6    24004                     31    
SUN 12Z 03-MAY  57.7    54.0    57.8    51.3    23004   0.00    0.00      29    
SUN 18Z 03-MAY  74.9    57.8    75.1    55.4    25008   0.00    0.00       1    
MON 00Z 04-MAY  76.1    67.4    66.9    59.1    25007   0.03    0.00      99    
MON 06Z 04-MAY  66.9    60.5    60.5    60.3    32004   0.29    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 04-MAY  60.5    53.6    54.7    52.9    35002   0.03    0.00      10    
MON 18Z 04-MAY  69.2    54.7    69.3    41.6    33005   0.00    0.00      29    
TUE 00Z 05-MAY  70.6    62.6    62.0    52.2    03004   0.00    0.00      99    
TUE 06Z 05-MAY  62.1    54.4    54.5    45.5    09003   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 12Z 05-MAY  54.8    51.3    52.5    51.9    14005   0.37    0.00     100    
TUE 18Z 05-MAY  66.1    52.5    66.3    61.0    24008   0.24    0.00      93    
WED 00Z 06-MAY  68.4    58.9    58.7    56.4    31008   0.19    0.00      92    
WED 06Z 06-MAY  58.7    51.0    50.9    48.7    31005   0.01    0.00      35    
WED 12Z 06-MAY  50.9    45.6    49.2    46.9    26004   0.00    0.00      47    
WED 18Z 06-MAY  62.0    49.2    62.1    41.5    28009   0.02    0.00      88    
THU 00Z 07-MAY  62.2    50.3    50.1    48.5    23004   0.22    0.00      57    
THU 06Z 07-MAY  50.1    43.3    43.2    42.5    30006   0.14    0.00      41    
THU 12Z 07-MAY  43.2    39.6    41.5    39.5    31005   0.00    0.00      28    
THU 18Z 07-MAY  57.1    41.5    57.5    28.2    33008   0.00    0.00      73    
FRI 00Z 08-MAY  61.7    52.7    52.3    38.7    35004   0.00    0.00      97    
FRI 06Z 08-MAY  52.3    43.7    44.7    36.9    17003   0.00    0.00      95    
FRI 12Z 08-MAY  46.5    44.6    45.7    39.9    19005   0.06    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 08-MAY  52.5    44.5    52.1    50.7    26003   0.22    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 09-MAY  54.1    50.1    49.8    48.2    31008   0.19    0.00      99    
SAT 06Z 09-MAY  49.8    41.0    40.8    37.8    34008   0.01    0.00      50    
SAT 12Z 09-MAY  40.7    31.3    33.4    25.3    31005   0.00    0.00       2    
SAT 18Z 09-MAY  45.4    33.4    45.5    18.6    31009   0.00    0.00       1    
SUN 00Z 10-MAY  49.0    41.8    41.5    22.6    31007   0.00    0.00      36    
SUN 06Z 10-MAY  41.5    33.2    33.1    24.0    27005   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 12Z 10-MAY  34.0    30.0    34.6    25.6    27003   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 18Z 10-MAY  52.6    34.6    52.8    24.7    29010   0.00    0.00      67    
MON 00Z 11-MAY  53.3    46.3    45.9    32.2    31006   0.00    0.00      20    
MON 06Z 11-MAY  45.9    37.1    37.5    30.9    20003   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 11-MAY  40.5    34.9    41.3    33.3    18002   0.00    0.00       1    
MON 18Z 11-MAY  60.8    41.3    61.0    37.4    24010   0.00    0.00      24    
TUE 00Z 12-MAY  62.2    56.2    55.8    48.5    27005   0.01    0.00      94    
TUE 06Z 12-MAY  55.8    46.3    45.9    44.6    04003   0.01    0.00      98    
TUE 12Z 12-MAY  46.4    44.0    46.6    44.0    07002   0.00    0.00      98    
TUE 18Z 12-MAY  64.1    46.6    64.4    45.2    24002   0.00    0.00      24    
WED 00Z 13-MAY  67.4    61.1    60.7    54.3    18003   0.00    0.00      20    

[Carvers Gap]

No changes to yesterday's discussion regarding NE TN.  Threat of a freeze and/or frost is still there.  The signal for a severe(relative to season) cold snap is now growing.  There are now several days which threaten at the very least frost.  Models seem to be converging on temps in the low to mid 30s(edit) with all-time record lows for May still on the table.

[Carvers Gap]

From the MRX afternoon disco...excellent write-up BTW today.  Sunday looks like the worst day, but the forecast timeframe is not there yet.  Should know more tomorrow.  There may even be another frost after Sunday.

Thursday looks dry but then more rain on Friday as a shortwave moves
across the region from out of the Central Plains/Missouri River
Valley. While this is happening, another potent shortwave dives down
out of Ontario and into the Ohio River Valley. This reinforces the
longwave trough across our area and allows cold Canadian air to dive
south into the region. This airmass will lead to max temps in the
upper 50s and low 60s on Saturday and Sunday which is 10 to 15
degrees below normal. The big story is the overnight lows on Friday
and Saturday night. Lows will range from near freezing across the
northern areas to the low 40s across the southern TN Valley. Right
now, the forecast lows for Saturday night/Sunday morning are only a
few degrees off the record low temps. The records min temps for May
10th are as follows: CHA 38 in 1966, TYS 37 in 1906, TRI 32 in 1966.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Edited comment above...not low to mid 20s but low to mid 30s. Bad but not that bad!

[John1122]

Normally I'd plant tomatoes and corn this weekend.  But another week or so looks like it will be the timeframe. MRX has the low here at 35 two days in a row and they tend to be too high imby due to the cold bowl microclimates here. 

[Windspeed]

lol...

[Carvers Gap]

In their morning discussion, MRX is now warning of frost for the northern 2/3 of the valley this weekend.  Saturday and Sunday look like good bets for frost.  GFS also depicting a second cold shot of cold middle of next week, and then maybe that is it.  My plants may go in the ground the very afternoon of the last frost.  Really stretching how long they last in their containers.  Cutting it close.  Even for Thursday now, the 0z Euro has me at 35.  Could be nearly a week with the threat of frost.  The Euro has the northern half of the Plateau below freezing on Saturday AM with TRI and Knoxville with nearly the same temps 34-35.  TRI again gets to 35 on Sunday AM with Knoxville in the upper 30s.  The Euro does not have the second sneaky front, but the CMC and GFS do.  That front is centered some time on Tuesday, and TYS seems. Of not the GEM and GFS have hard freezes in the I-81 corridor with temps 25-27 for TRI on Sunday AM.  Truly remarkable to see that type of air mass which would be historical for this area.  Those two models have a longer duration (meaning hours per night) event early Sunday AM.  With those temps, I likely will make an effort to cover even my cool weather crops.   Again, looks like several nights with the potential for frost beginning on Thursday AM and lasting to Tuesday or Wednesday of the next week.  Right now, Saturday and Sunday AM look like the biggest problem with the highest probability of frost.  Keep your fingers crossed that this modifies on modeling.  It hasn't yet, but it still may.  Otherwise, probably time to consider this as a real possibility since some of the models now have the threat under 84 hours.

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, Windspeed said:

lol...

That is pretty incredible.  

[Carvers Gap]

The departures for May(comparing last year to this year only) will be impressive I think.  Summer began last year during May,  This year, we can't seem to shake March!

[Windspeed]

[Carvers Gap]

No change this morning regarding the upcoming cold and freeze/frost potential for this weekend.  Overnight and morning global model runs did not trend warmer.  For NE TN, looks like Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings have a threat for frosts.   Depending on which model you look at, Saturday and Sunday do have the potential for nighttime temps to dip below freezing.  My point and click is already 32 for Sunday morning.  The 0z Euro is trending colder(nearly ten degrees over the past several days for Sat/Sun), but is basically frost.  The 6z GFS and 0z GEM are historically cold.  Looks like MRX is riding with the Euro, and I don't blame them.  However, I do know on recent cold mornings during April that temps were colder than forecast if the weather cleared and the winds went calm.  Slim margins to work by for sure, and I don't envy that job.  For now, I would say that Saturday and Sunday morning are going to be sketchy in NE TN, the northern Plateau, W NC, SW VA, SE KY.  

Of note, the 6z GFS is picking up on another quick shot of cold on Tuesday(that has been a common theme...the Euro has not had that one) and Friday of next week with patchy frost potential.  Once we get by the freeze, my plants are going in the ground and we will just cover them at night.  In other words, this pattern is repeating on the GFS.  The Euro is having none of that, but it missed this weekend's cold.   I think it is just shoulder season trouble which we know is common.

[Carvers Gap]

MRX bringing the hammer on the afternoon disco with mentions of all of the various cold records now on record.  Feel free to post the comments or I will try to later.

[Carvers Gap]

From MRX....

Wednesday Night through Saturday

The period commences with the first shot of colder air due to
falling heights and preceding northwest flow behind a surface cold
front to the southeast. With this northwest flow and potentially
lingering low to mid-level moisture, some light sprinkles or
flurries are possible in the east Tennessee and southwestern
Virginia mountains earlier in the night. Otherwise, focus is on the
degree of clearing skies and decreasing winds for low temperatures
and frost potential. Even with lessened radiational cooling,
anomalously negative 500mb heights and 850mb to 925mb temperatures
in the 0 to +5 degrees Celsius range will support low temperatures
dropping 10 to 15 degrees below average. Increasing heights and a
surface high centered across the deep south will allow for a dry and
clear Thursday with temperatures still noticeably below normal. This
settled pattern comes ahead of a developing leeward surface low and
positively tilted upper trough that advances eastward into Friday.

While minor discrepancies still exist, model guidance is in
agreement for the center of the surface low to track over
Kentucky/Ohio River Valley during the morning and afternoon hours on
Friday. With a lack in instability and climatologically average PWAT
values, convection and excessive rainfall are of little concern with
this system. However, a pre-frontal 850mb jet of 40 to 50 knots and
a tight SW to NE pressure gradient could produce gusty winds.
Following the PM frontal passage, northwest flow keeps slight chance
PoPs in the TN mountains, along with bringing a steep temperature
drop into Saturday morning.

During this time frame, 500mb height anomalies are suggested by
global ensemble means to be -15 to -20 dam with 850mb temperatures
approaching -5 degrees Celsius. Per the NAEFS Ensemble Situational
Awareness Table, these 850mb temperatures are near record low levels
and nearly 4 standard deviations below the mean. Although cloud
cover and northwest winds both linger behind the front, the very low
height anomalies, 850mb temperature anomalies, and near freezing
925mb temperatures will likely support temperatures to fall into the
30s area-wide with locations outside of the Tennessee Valley near
the freezing mark. Record lows for CHA and TYS are in the mid-30s
with TRI`s record low at 30 degrees for May 9th, so cloud cover and
winds will be key to testing these lows. The record low max
temperatures, which are 57 (CHA in 1923), 55 (TYS in 1906), and 53
(TRI in 1992), will also be tested as the cold upper support and
surface high pressure persists through the day.

Sunday through Tuesday

Saturday night heading into Sunday morning, model guidance is in
agreement for the surface high to be centered just to the east of
the CWA. While 850mb temperature and 500mb height anomalies both
increase slightly, radiational cooling with decreased winds and
cloud cover will help to drop temperatures potentially lower than
the previous day with a higher likelihood of record lows being
broken. The record lows for the day of May 10th with the years are
as follows: CHA-(38 in 1966, 1947, and 1906), TYS-(37 in 1906), and
TRI-(32 in 1966). With radiational cooling, lows dropping to upper
30s for CHA, mid 30s for TYS, and lower 30s for TRI look
increasingly likely. In addition to record lows, this anomalous cold
could yield one of the top 3 latest frost/freeze events on record.

 

[Carvers Gap]

I think if we can get through Tuesday, we may(famous last words) be home free.  The number of records on the table for the next few days are impressive and many - record lows and record low max temps.  Even more impressive, some of the records are not low hanging fruit, meaning they are old records that have stood the test of time.  Man, I am ready for summer.  I usually don't say that, but this year I am.  With MRX noting this could be one of the three latest freeze/frosts on record, this could be some rare air.  I am with @Stovepipe, this cold weather pattern is wearing me out!  LOL.  It pretty much stinks.  The next 5-6 days will be colder than many places above 6,000' in WY!  Yes, I do follow that climate there.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z GFS for posterity:

 

and EPS:

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

NWS predicting frost tonight, Saturday, and Sunday mornings for TRI.  Point and clicks are forecasting lows at or below freezing over the weekend in the same region.  Looks like one last potential cold shot Tuesday AM(keep an eye on Weds as well), and then we may be out of this until next fall.   For TRI, the 6z GFS is showing potential for 5 frosts and the Euro 3.  Either way, cold is on the way.  As for Knoxville, temps continue to look marginal.  The Central Valley appears most at risk this weekend for widespread frost.  Really, no new changes this morning as models have continued in their persistence of this cold snap.  If this verifies, modeling will have performed very well across the board in regards to temps - a nice shoulder season pick-up.

[John1122]

49 degrees and rainy this morning. We can't get winter in winter, it just sticks around later in spring lately. 

[Coach B]

49 at 1:00 in the afternoon on May 6th. Ughh! I'm going to have to bring another load of firewood to the back porch for this weekend. 

[nrgjeff]

Yeah the weekend is going to have cold nights. Cold tonight, but no Valley freeze. Friday morning may be saved by incoming precip. Sat/Sun lows MOS is at/below 2m Ts. That will be after the last front (Friday) as the new airmass settles in. Typically MOS is OK after the fronts settle out and airmass settles in. MRX is right to be wary of record cold - and freezes.

Silver lining is no severe wx concerns for several days. Depending on the strength of the next SER it might not get in here again, but that's no guarantee. 

Then by Days 8-10 we are talking AN temps again. If this is the final cold shot, like in winter, could usher in a warmer pattern. If the AN temps are transitory; then, I guess the May mashup continues.

[John1122]

The temp has dropped all afternoon. Currently 43 degrees. I'll be surprised if I can avoid a weekend freeze. I'll probably frost tonight barring cloudy or windy weather. But the ridges on all sides of me block winds pretty effectively. 

[Carvers Gap]

For posterity...I usually don't post all of the disco, but this is a pretty unique event and will probably be worth a read during later years.  Frosts, freezes, and high elevation snow forecast.  Currently snowing at Newfound Gap - posted a tweet in the obs thread.  

National Weather Service Morristown TN
329 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020

.SHORT TERM... (Today through Tomorrow)...
Currently a trough is swinging through the eastern half of the U.S.
and along the axis of it we`re a line of showers and a few flashes
of lightning as it makes it`s way east across the Appalachian
Mountains. Expect these showers and isolated thunderstorms to be
east of the mountains over the next few hours. Some very isolated
weak showers may move in from Kentucky into the evening hours, but
coverage of these looks to be pretty sparse and QPF amounts will be
light if any do form. Winds will remain breezy as air fills in
behind the front.

Tonight as cold air continues to pour in from the northwest the
skies will also be clearing out at the same time. This combination
will help lead to unseasonably cold temperatures across the region.
Overnight lows will dip into the 30`s for most locations and
possibly near or below freezing at the tops of the southern
Appalachian Mountains. A frost advisory will be in effect for
southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee tonight. There is a
chance that winds remain elevated enough that it prevents
widespread frost from forming, but with frost occurring this late
in the season decided to err on the side of caution and issue an
advisory for areas who`s overnight lows drop into the mid 30`s.

For tomorrow expect to see sunny skies with dry air remaining over
the area. With the sun expected to shine most of the day tomorrow
temperatures will be several degrees warmer than what we experience
today.

ABM

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)...
The main story of the long term period is the unseasonably cold
weather in store for much of the eastern half of the nation,
including our forecast area. This will include the possibility of
near record lows over the weekend, along with some areas of frost
and freezing temperatures. The higher elevations as well as the
northern half of the forecast area will be most susceptible to
these conditions. Currently only have one significant rain
producing system in the period, which is set to move through the
area early Friday. More on that in a second.

As mentioned, unseasonably cool/cold weather is on tap for the
southern Appalachian region during the long term. A strong upper
trough will remain over the eastern United States during the period,
with a couple of embedded shortwaves passing through. The first, and
strongest of these disturbances, will move through on Friday. This
short-wave will move quickly east southeast across the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys into the Appalachians. The associated upper jet
dynamics will be strongest over the Ohio valley and northern
sections of the forecast area. Upper system will induce a fairly
strong surface cyclogenesis. This surface low will tighten the
pressure gradients across the region with a fairly strong low-level
jet. The 850mb winds will increase to 50-60kts producing
breezy/windy conditions. Models do show some convective trends in
QPF values to our southwest, along/ahead of the associated cold
front. However, think just showers will be present in our CWA due to
the lack of influx of Gulf moisture into the area before the front
arrives.

For Friday night, showers end pretty quickly and should see skies
clearing out pretty rapidly. There could be a changeover to snow in
the higher elevations late Friday evening before precipitation ends,
but this would be brief and little to no accumulation is expected.
Skies begin to clear out Friday night, and with strong high pressure
building in from the northwest, and weakening winds, temperatures
are likely to drop into the 30s even in the south. Northern valley,
southwest Virginia, and higher elevation locales will likely see lows
in the 20s. Areas of frost seem a high likelihood. Will hold off on
any frost related headlines right now as we have some out for
tonight. However, expect these to be considered for Friday night in
the coming shifts.

For Saturday and Sunday, surface ridging and dry northwest flow
aloft will produce dry conditions but unseasonably cool. Another
round of frost/freezing temperatures are expected Sunday morning.

For late Sunday night and Monday, another weaker short-wave will
move into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Dynamics is much weaker
and moisture is even more limited than with Friday`s system. Limited
PoPs to slight chance values across southwest Virginia and far
northeast Tennessee for now since there is notable timing and
coverage differences between the models right now.

For Monday into Tuesday, another strong continental surface high
moves into the region from the northwest. This will bring a
reinforcing shot of cold, dry air to the area. While not as cold as
the air mass over the weekend, expect to see lows remain in the 40s
to perhaps upper 30s heading into early next week.

A pattern change looks in the offing heading into the middle of next
week. Temperatures will begin to moderate and there may be a weak
disturbance moving through the region on Wed for a slight chance of
showers for the time being. Pretty large discrepancies with how the
pattern evolves Tue onward so low-end slight chances will suffice
for now.

 

[John1122]

My point forecast now says snow showers, then upper 20s Friday night into Saturday morning. 

[Carvers Gap]

LOL.  My point and click is also a rain/snow mix for the time John mentioned.  Freeze watches and warnings have now been hoisted for many areas for tomorrow night.   Knoxville isn't under an advisory currently, but have to think later shifts might likely add them regarding frost.  Just a quick point/click has frost there late Friday night and Saturday morning.  I am again going to add the entire MRX discussion for posterity.  Snow above 3,500' feet is expected with light accumulations noted.  Highs on Friday and Saturday will be 25-30 degrees colder than last May on those same dates.  Truly, summer began last year during April and was in full swing by May.  During the latter half of May last year, we had temps in the upper 80s and hit 90 on a few days.  Who knows?  That may still happen.  But Friday and Saturday will push record lows and record low max temps.  

National Weather Service Morristown TN
712 AM EDT Thu May 7 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)...

The frost advisory will be allowed to continue as is for early this
morning.  Surface high pressure centered to our southwest will drift
southeast and east and will extend into our area today.  We will see
plenty of sunshine today but temperatures will still be below
normal.

Tonight will see moisture begin to increase ahead of the next low
pressure system ejecting out of the Plains. Low/mid levels of the
atmosphere will initially be quite dry which will delay any precip
onset, but as isentropic lift increases late tonight we may see a
bit of light rain begin reaching the surface especially western
areas, so will include low PoPs all but far northeast TN.
Temperatures tonight will be below normal as well.

LW

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)...

The main weather stories for the extended remains the following:

1) Unseasonably strong upper trough across the eastern half of the
nation through Monday, then heights began to increase early next
week. Standard anomalies for 500mb heights and temperatures are well
below normal especially for this weekend. Near record or record
lows are anticipated for Saturday and Sunday mornings with areas
of frost. Freezing temperatures are anticipated for parts of
southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee, far east Tennessee
Mountains, Plateau, and southwest North Carolina.

2) An unusual late season snow is expected across the highest peaks
of southwest Virginia (High Knob) and far east Tennessee Mountains,
such as Roane and Smoky Mountains.

3) Another significant headline is the expected high winds across
the far east Tennessee Mountains and Foothills Friday.

Now for a closer look...

For Friday, a strong short-wave will move quickly east southeast
across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys into the Appalachians. The
associated upper jet dynamics will be strongest over the Ohio valley
and northern sections of the forecast area. Upper system will induce
a fairly strong surface cyclogenesis. This surface low will tighten
the pressure gradients across the region with a fairly strong low-
level jet. The 850mb winds will increase to 50-60kts producing
breezy/windy conditions, especially for the Mountains where a High
Wind Watch is issued.

The strong low-level jet will also increase the isentropic lift
across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Widespread
rain showers are expected. Due to limited Gulf moisture return,
instability will be non-existent with this system and will keep
thunder out for Friday.

For Friday evening and night, robust northwest flow strengthens
pulling colder air into the region and producing orographic lift.
Vertical temperature profile becomes unseasonably cold allowing rain
showers to change to snow in the evening. Snow accumulations of 1 to
1 1/2 inches are anticipated over the higher elevations, generally
at or above 3500-4000 feet.

Sky will gradually clear from west to east as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the area late Friday night/early Saturday
morning. Due to clearing sky, diminishing winds, and unseasonably
cold air-mass, patchy to areas of frost are expected with some
freezing temperatures anticipated over much of the Plateau,
southwest VA, northeast TN, far east TN Mountains, and southwest NC.
A freeze watch has been issued.

For Saturday and Sunday, surface ridging and dry northwest flow
aloft will produce dry conditions but unseasonably cool conditions.
Another round of frost/freezing temperatures are expected Sunday
morning.

For late Sunday night and Monday, another weaker short-wave will
move into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Dynamics is weaker with
limited moisture. Will keep low chance PoPs for southwest Virginia
and northeast Tennessee. Elsewhere, dry conditions.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, upper flow will become more zonal then
increasing ridging by mid-week.  Dry conditions and a warming trend
are anticipated.

DH

 

[Met1985]

Yeah fellas I had a low of 28 this morning.  My p&c forecast is now having snow likely friday night and Saturday morning with a low of 28. If thats the case we might very well be in the low to mid 20s some 20 to 30 degrees from normal.  

[Stovepipe]

Trying to cover the garden tomorrow evening during downpours and gusty winds will be fun.  GFS showing upper 20s for here Saturday morning.  What a mess.

[Carvers Gap]

46 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

Trying to cover the garden tomorrow evening during downpours and gusty winds will be fun.  GFS showing upper 20s for here Saturday morning.  What a mess.

I hear that!  I am debating on just setting the alarm clock for when the wind is supposed to die down.  

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

As @Calderon, alluded to(if I understood correctly)...might be a quick shot of spring and then a warm-up.  @nrgjeff mentioned this as well.  The 18z GFS goes from record lows to near record highs by the end of the run.  Temps in the low 90s in fantasy land.  Pretty rare to see a single run go from snow to 90s for this area!  

[PowellVolz]

As [mention=251]Calderon[/mention], alluded to(if I understood correctly)...might be a quick shot of spring and then a warm-up.  [mention=2545]nrgjeff[/mention] mentioned this as well.  The 18z GFS goes from record lows to near record highs by the end of the run.  Temps in the low 90s in fantasy land.  Pretty rare to see a single run go from snow to 90s for this area!  

Didn’t we do that in October? Record highs in the low 90’s and then a chance of snow around Halloween?


.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Didn’t we do that in October? Record highs in the low 90’s and then a chance of snow around Halloween?


.

Quite possibly.  Halloween was cold.  Sept and much of October were a furnace.  These past two shoulder seasons have had very sharp changes.  Still, pretty rare to see snow and 90s on a single, 16-day run.  With this being a potential record cold snap so late, that is what makes it possible.  Last fall we had late record warm temps pushing into colder months.  So, the recipe is late season extreme records I guess.  I hope we never see a fall like last fall again.   With this La Niña developing, could have extended summer again though.  La Nina’s can have quick flips during fall as well.  So could be near record warmth with a quick snap to cold.  This might be an upcoming winter where we will have to score on the front end.  The West has these flips in WY and MT quite often.  Just unusual to see them here.