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Interior burbs - late season snow 22nd/23rd


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It never got above the half inch here but it hasn't stopped snowing. It warmed up just enough that it's mostly melted off but it started snowing harder a little while ago so it's sticking to itself, what was white is whiter otherwise it's sloppy wet. It sure adds to the melancholy feel of the day with almost no moving traffic on the street.

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Wantage NJ...8sv High Point. Probable final. All rain now w just  a few ice pellets at times. 0.4 snow sleet comprised of 0.2 snow and 0.2 sleet. 33.1 slushy underfoot on home pavement due to recent sleet accumulation. First measurable wintry stuff since 2/14-Valentines Day. Seasonal total 20.0. 128P/23.

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Had some heavy snow move in about an hour ago and temp dropped from 32.6 to 31.4. It actually began to stick to roads and cover driveway.

Peak depth so far today is 1.3 inches but in areas that would be exposed to sun that begins to compress and melt when precip lightens.

Back to 32.4° with a light mix.

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So, here's a little mapping of yesterdays snow-sleet totals.  I've also included an example of EPS prob off 3+" and NWS prob of 1+" from around 08z/23.

It is obvious to me the NWS ensemble was much more  conservative in PA/NJ, but did not perform very well in NYS/New England which you could also see in the actual  ensemble forecasts (not shown here).  

EPS/EC op  failure on the southern edge (too robust) may be related to how it handles sleet conversion to snow depth (10 to 1). 

NWS probabilistic ensemble may suffer from a problem I've been seeing regarding the GFS determining rain vs snow... I think the GFS is a little weak on determining the approximate rain-snow line. I saw this clearly a month ago in a midwest system and it occurred again yesterday. 

No modeling to my knowledge handled the rain back to sleet in ne PA/nw NJ late afternoon- that little surprise I can live with.  

 

The first two reality check maps are the best I can do in a hurry to fill in some actual data.  The latter two, the EPS prob of 3+, 85% and greater did very well!  The NWS ensemble for 1+ inch produced ~ 08z/23 didn't do too well.

These are the issues that need to be dealt with in briefing folks. 

Finally, the complex problems of merging data sets-in a hurry I might add- in the operational setting. The last image was the snowfall forecast issued "Sunday" morning 09z/22.  Not too shabby---overdone  a little here and there on the southern edge, but convert the sleet to snow and you've got the numbers. Effectively, this NWS operational map which we all use for point-click output, was a pretty good effort.  Good work there, imo. 1517z/24

Screen Shot 2020-03-24 at 10.55.00 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-03-24 at 10.57.54 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-03-23 at 4.43.05 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-03-23_at_5_11.46_AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-03-22 at 6.22.29 AM.png

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