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March 24, 2020 - Coastal Threat


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

GYX forecast for KASH:

   Probabilistic Snowfall: 5"

   1 in 10%: 4"

It's been 8 years since I've done a statistics class, but this doesn't make sense right?

I think GYX is in progress of upping the forecast totals, and only the "expected" amount has been revised, not the 90% and 10% maps.

Maybe this belongs in the month of March thread, but GFS went nuts at 12z - doubled qpf for the current event (just catching up to other guidance) but also wiping out Thurs-Fri and crushing us next Monday (and if day 7 wasn't silly enough, another solid event at day 14.) :weenie: 

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58 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I think GYX is in progress of upping the forecast totals, and only the "expected" amount has been revised, not the 90% and 10% maps.

Maybe this belongs in the month of March thread, but GFS went nuts at 12z - doubled qpf for the current event (just catching up to other guidance) but also wiping out Thurs-Fri and crushing us next Monday (and if day 7 wasn't silly enough, another solid event at day 14.) :weenie: 

GFS puts a 30 spot on my head by day 8 LOL man if that verified what a fookin month

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Odd behavior with this thing..  

We snowed moderately and steady later yesterday afternoon and early evening to almost 4" ..then, flipped to sleet and cold rain as the temperature was falling to 32.5. The mat-downing was underway by 7 .. 7:30 pm ...Then, the wind picks up with ominous whirs, and everything flashed over to heavy snow that went on to burst for about 1.5 hours worth and another 3"... Then, back over to cold rain and sleet.. Bit of a head scratch because this later flip back was amid the genesis of the CCB featuring on rad and sat, and in theory, the column should have continued to cool. But it seemed to warm during that period of time. Interesting.

Not sure how the event finished, but by 3 am the sky was just black, there was no wind, and glop flopping rained from the trees.  Too bad, too, it stripped the gracing off the trees and that would have been a pretty specter at sun-up but.  

 

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