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March 24, 2020 - Coastal Threat


Baroclinic Zone
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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Paste...even in the hills. Maybe not once you get up into Mitch's hood or other elevations over 2k.

It will stick to pavement if it comes down hard enough. Rates always trump temps when it comes to stickage. We'll see how the rates look as we get closer, but the more open wave idea would make me a little bit skeptical of big rates. However, the Euro did look a little healthier today aloft, so we cannot rule out a nice period of heavy snow if that continues.

Seems like power may be an issue for some 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just saw the Euro ... heh, I think that verifies decimals ( crucially ) colder..  

Sharpened up H5 a little bit again....I think in that scenario we might see a pretty decent stripe of heavy snow. Of course, this could revert back again, but I think this type of look would probably allow for a few hours of 1/4 mile nickels at 31-32F...

 

Mar20_Euro90.png

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sharpened up H5 a little bit again....I think in that scenario we might see a pretty decent stripe of heavy snow. Of course, this could revert back again, but I think this type of look would probably allow for a few hours of 1/4 mile nickels at 31-32F...

 

Mar20_Euro90.png

agreed... but of course, predicated on the assumption of details here :) 

Despite the kangaroo court ruling the Euro's pretty good at D4 so -

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Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

But it probably won't be there.

 

I have liked 3-6 with pockets of 8 in the favored elevations and won't move from it. WPC 72 hour forecast supports this to an extent.

That seems extremely reasonable.  I agree with that from what I've looked at today for a large swath of 3-6" from PA/Catskills/then the central slice of New England.  Lollis to 6-8" in a stripe that might be like the Catskills to southern VT to Monadnocks or ORH Hills?

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That seems extremely reasonable.  I agree with that from what I've looked at today for a large swath of 3-6" from PA/Catskills/then the central slice of New England.  Lollis to 6-8" in a stripe that might be like the Catskills to southern VT to Monadnocks or ORH Hills?

Yep. Generally above 1500' I'd think. After that 12z Euro head fake run from yesterday with the widespread 8-12, this has consolidated well into an event not too dissimilar to 1/18.

I'm lower elevations in the Castkills so not surprised if I get 3" then flip to rain whIle 2000'+ stay snow and manage the 8". It may be hard for even them to get to 8" given the likely arrival time of precip/snow being hard to accumulate in late March sun angles.

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