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March 24, 2020 - Coastal Threat


Baroclinic Zone
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Guessing widespread interior 3-5 with anything higher confined to higher elevations. Weaker storms in marginal situations don't work for everyone. Once euro (cmc as well) falls in line this will probably be the reality. To go with it this event, no matter how much falls, will likely be the last time we see snow OTG until October at the earliest.

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Classic "farmer's gold" spring blue - 

There are actually two events in this manifold/pattern ...the one later Monday, then again almost even a redux look toward the end of the week.   Neither event looks ( to me ) as though they can't overcome warmth and move to an isothermal sounding snow type. 

Typically in the spring, these mid and extended range cyclones with marginal QPF type spread out over their NW arcs ...they will tend to end up 0 C around our latitude. I have seen so many + 1 to even + 3 commaheads end up 'chuting at -.1 C.  Anyway, given the synopsis in hand I'd be willing to guess based on that experience/education that Monday's ordeal ends up isothermal in a significant region that probably even flips the SE edge of present ptype guidance to pillows.  

The other aspect/con ...other than Scott's salient observation that we are still in the progressive eternity apparently ...is that this ever so slightly looks more IB/warm advection in type on the 00z runs suite.  It's really almost more of an impression ...but if that unfolds more in that direction, I'm not sure isothermal characteristic would be the ultimate saturation thermal sounding type.  And of course that means an eventual over to cold rain in that scenario.  

It's actually nice to have some weather to discuss ... 

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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Classic "farmer's gold" spring blue - 

There are actually two events in this manifold/pattern ...the one later Monday, then again almost even a redux look toward the end of the week.   Neither event looks ( to me ) as though they can't overcome warmth and move to an isothermal sounding snow type. 

Typically in the spring, these mid and extended range cyclones with marginal QPF type spread out over their NW arcs ...they will tend to end up 0 C around our latitude. I have seen so many + 1 to even + 3 commaheads end up 'chuting at -.1 C.  Anyway, given the synopsis in hand I'd be willing to guess based on that experience/education that Monday's ordeal ends up isothermal in a significant region that probably even flips the SE edge of present ptype guidance to pillows.  

The other aspect/con ...other than Scott's salient observation that we are still in the progressive eternity apparently ...is that this ever so slightly looks more IB/warm advection in type on the 00z runs suite.  It's really almost more of an impression ...but if that unfolds more in that direction, I'm not sure isothermal characteristic would be the ultimate saturation thermal sounding type.  And of course that means an eventual over to cold rain in that scenario.  

It's actually nice to have some weather to discuss ... 

If they do come to fruition, one of the benefits of working from home is not having to rush to get the driveway cleared to get to work by 7:00 am.  Leave it to melt because I'm not going anywhere anyway

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21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has been atrocious. Worst model this winter.

Says who LOL. It's been better than the GFS and the GFS has been horrendous with fantasy snowstorms every single week for 10 days out and they never came to fruition. The Euro has been more consistent in the sense of not showing that same thing. So I respectfully disagree with you on that statement. Just looking at the facts

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5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Says who LOL. It's been better than the GFS and the GFS has been horrendous with fantasy snowstorms every single week for 10 days out and they never came to fruition. The Euro has been more consistent in the sense of not showing that same thing. So I respectfully disagree with you on that statement. Just looking at the facts

Every model has struggled this winter

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don't mean to say that we're gonna get skunked...I just think this is trending more toward an advisory type snowfall with maybe a stripe of low end warning based on how the upper air has trended a bit more open and progressive....it's possible it ticks back a little deeper, but for now, I'd hedge weaker. Weaker also brings the BL more into play as well for the lowlands.

I made a comment yesterday that H5 didn't seen supportive of a big event.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I made a comment yesterday that H5 didn't seen supportive of a big event.

Yeah it was a tight squeeze for sure...12z Euro yesterday plus a few other stray runs did manage to get H5 to kink enough to create a pretty nice ML circulation....but we've seen it revert back to more open wave status overnight and today.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was a tight squeeze for sure...12z Euro yesterday plus a few other stray runs did manage to get H5 to kink enough to create a pretty nice ML circulation....but we've seen it revert back to more open wave status overnight and today.

More of an observation in concept here ... but, both the Monday and the later Thur/Frid systems "default" the thicknesses warmer afterward - 

I see this routinely in spring, where the wave of low pressure - in total - acts more like a warm front; even if there are closed isobars, the region ends up with a shot a mid 50s or even 60 immediately when the sun comes out.  

The one later in the week on this GFS run has like 0 backside anything and in fact, 6 hours after the cloud part there is 552 dm thickness contour bifurcating the area, with a SW flow ahead of the next front.  

This in total does also fit in more with your observation about these becoming more WAA/open wave-like. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

More of an observation in concept here ... but, both the Monday and the later Thur/Frid systems "default" the thicknesses warmer afterward - 

I see this routinely in spring, where the wave of low pressure - in total - acts more like a warm front; even if there are closed isobars, the region ends up with a shot a mid 50s or even 60 immediately when the sun comes out.  

The one later in the week on this GFS run has like 0 backside anything and in fact, 6 hours after the cloud part there is 552 dm thickness contour bifurcating the area, with a SW flow ahead of the next front.  

This in total does also fit in more with your observation about these becoming more WAA/open wave-like. 

Yeah agreed. These are more of the type of event where if you leave the 4-5 inches of paste on your car when you wake up, by 12pm, it's slumping off your hood and by 3pm your driveway is melted out and completely dry with only shaded parts of the lawn still snow covered.....versus getting smoked by 17" and maybe actually dealing with one semi-cold CAA day afterward.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will this be wet paste even in hills ?

 

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Is it a grass only deal or will this stick to pavement?

Paste...even in the hills. Maybe not once you get up into Mitch's hood or other elevations over 2k.

It will stick to pavement if it comes down hard enough. Rates always trump temps when it comes to stickage. We'll see how the rates look as we get closer, but the more open wave idea would make me a little bit skeptical of big rates. However, the Euro did look a little healthier today aloft, so we cannot rule out a nice period of heavy snow if that continues.

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