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HoarfrostHubb

Coronavirus Economic/Financial/Jobs thread

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20 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stimulus package nearing completion. Sounds like it’ll be 2 trillion or a little higher. 

They probably need it to be 3 but at least this will be quite a bit more robust than the original one trillion. 

The bigger question still remains is how long will the economy stay frozen. We don’t know. 

I was impressed w the Feds Announcement and how bluntly they stated they will buy everything and as much as needed 

seems like unemployment benefits are going to be straight juiced to the max as well as any stimulus checks 

imagine how long the line of private industries begging for a bailout is as the fed is about to open up its.m coffers...given how most every company in the S&P 500 engineered higher share prices and thus higher annual compensation for its executives thru humongous buy backs ..

.I wonder if the big sticking point now is those influential companies vocalizing their displeasure that companies taking part is this bailout won’t be able to buy back stocks or offer dividends for the duration of “help” plus a year . Won’t be shocked if this provision develops a few loopholes wide enough to placate to executives objections .

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On 3/23/2020 at 12:31 PM, amarshall said:

First time in my 20 year career I'll be filing for (voluntary) unemployment Friday. We're trying to save our small business by shutting it down.  

Customers aren't paying us.  Their customers aren't paying them.  This is unprecedented. 

Sorry to hear.  Ditto.  Been with my company since 1994 and as of this weekend I’ll be “unemployed”. For the future of the business all employees will be laid off.  There are 7 of us.

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Unemployment claims are going to be staggering this week. CA alone registered a million today, which exceeds the national weekly record from the financial crisis.

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Unemployment claims are going to be staggering this week. CA alone registered a million today, which exceeds the national weekly record from the financial crisis.

I feel like the numbers are being underestimated. We’ll see in the next couple weeks. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like the numbers are being underestimated. We’ll see in the next couple weeks. 

100% same page. We're heading into uncharted waters here. A lot of contractors I'm in daily contact with are already laying off people. This is going to have enormous implications, not just in the U.S. Canada had a million claims yesterday. India is shut down. China may be trying to reopen, but I suspect orders for a lot of goods are getting canceled.

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3 hours ago, Hoth said:

100% same page. We're heading into uncharted waters here. A lot of contractors I'm in daily contact with are already laying off people. This is going to have enormous implications, not just in the U.S. Canada had a million claims yesterday. India is shut down. China may be trying to reopen, but I suspect orders for a lot of goods are getting canceled.

China is open. Their supply chain is not quite back to full capacity but it’s picking up the pace. The problem is everywhere else now. Because of the China trade war a lot of our imports were pushed to India who’s now in a complete shutdown in Maharashtra, where Mumbai is. Europe isn’t much better as most production facilities are running skeleton crews. Ocean Vessels are jammed up so even when you’ve planned your supply chain perfectly, it hits a snag with vessel availability as they are ‘cutting and running from ports’. American Distributors are scrambling to find alternatives while feeling the effects with their customers with great uncertainty. Some businesses have seen an uptick while others have stalled but those that are still doing well can’t get material as easily or at all. Because we rely on foreign supply so heavily, I don’t think we have enough domestic production to sustain this for another 3 months without reaching into our pockets again, but I’ll leave that to the economists. From a supply chain standpoint though... the ripple effect of this is massive, sometimes too complex for the mind to fully grasp. 

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40 minutes ago, radarman said:

Jobs report... 3.3M new unemployment filings

For comparison, the worst week we saw during the Great Recession was around 650k and those numbers didn't happen until well into the crisis....spring 2009. During the bloodbath in fall of 2008, we typically saw weekly unemployment claims in the 400-500k range.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For comparison, the worst week we saw during the Great Recession was around 650k and those numbers didn't happen until well into the crisis....spring 2009. During the bloodbath in fall of 2008, we typically saw weekly unemployment claims in the 400-500k range.

They said that was 4x the previous record from 1982

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Fwiw, those who are wondering about the stimulus checks in the senate bill passed last night....here's what you need to know:

1. For full check, your tax return had to be 75k or less (150k for married couples). You get $1200 per person, or 2400 for couples....and an additional 500 per child. You get partial checks for earnings up to 99k per person (or 198k for couples)...fully phased out after those numbers.

2. The income thresholds are based on your 2019 tax return unless you didn't file yet, then they will use 2018. The income number is your adjusted gross income....not your total social security wages which is the number that most people think of their salary as.....so for example, if you make 85k per year, you might think you are only getting a partial check. But that's probably not true. You probably shelled out over 6k in medicare/social security taxes. You also probably contributed another 5-10k to your IRA. So your actual adjusted gross income was likely below 75k so you would get the full check. There's a few other things that come off too like interest paid on student loans, but you can look at line 7 on your 1040 to see the AGI number.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, those who are wondering about the stimulus checks in the senate bill passed last night....here's what you need to know:

1. For full check, your tax return had to be 75k or less (150k for married couples). You get $1200 per person, or 2400 for couples....and an additional 500 per child. You get partial checks for earnings up to 99k per person (or 198k for couples)...fully phased out after those numbers.

2. The income thresholds are based on your 2019 tax return unless you didn't file yet, then they will use 2018. The income number is your adjusted gross income....not your total social security wages which is the number that most people think of their salary as.....so for example, if you make 85k per year, you might think you are only getting a partial check. But that's probably not true. You probably shelled out over 6k in medicare/social security taxes. You also probably contributed another 5-10k to your IRA. So your actual adjusted gross income was likely below 75k so you would get the full check. There's a few other things that come off too like interest paid on student loans, but you can look at line 7 on your 1040 to see the AGI number.

IMO it would have made a lot more sense to issue checks to all and claw some back in 2020 tax returns.  For many that haven't filed 2019 taxes, 2018 returns are pretty irrelevant by now.

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Just now, radarman said:

IMO it would have made a lot more sense to issue checks to all and claw some back in 2020 tax returns.  For many that haven't filed 2019 taxes, 2018 returns are pretty irrelevant by now.

Yeah probably....I can see the pros and cons to each side....they probably didn't want to create confusion by saying that some people would be paying the money back....therefore you get a bunch of other people thinking the money is just a loan and not an actual stimulus check even if they were not part of the income group that would be paying it back. But there are always cons....you get the scenario you are talking about where people using 2018 are using an outdated number.

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Are they doing direct deposit or issuing real paper checks? I’m pretty sure mailing out checks to 200 million plus people and having them all running to the bank at the same time is something they don’t want 

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22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Are they doing direct deposit or issuing real paper checks? I’m pretty sure mailing out checks to 200 million plus people and having them all running to the bank at the same time is something they don’t want 

Direct deposit assuming that's what you did on your tax return....otherwise they will mail checks to where they mailed your refund last time (or whatever address is on file if you didn't get a refund).

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Direct deposit assuming that's what you did on your tax return....otherwise they will mail checks to where they mailed your refund last time (or whatever address is on file if you didn't get a refund).

So my wife and myself already filed our 2019 taxes jointly... so we’ll get 2400? Each of use won’t receive 1200 separate I’d assume 

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So my wife and myself already filed our 2019 taxes jointly... so we’ll get 2400? Each of use won’t receive 1200 separate I’d assume 

Yes you would get 2400 total, assuming you meet the income qualifications (under 150k joint). Did you do direct deposit? If you filed jointly and did direct deposit, then you only gave them one account number...that's where the money would go.

This is assuming the house passes the bill tomorrow which is expected...so it's not technically passed yet. Just throwing that out there.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Did the $500 per child go away...I didn’t see it mentioned today. 

No it is in there.

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Completed trades today from buys last week.  Have made a decent chunk last two weeks on short term trades.  Done with that for a bit as I don’t trust the market right now.  I expect a bad stretch coming, but some buying opportunities in a couple weeks.  But what do I know....

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2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Completed trades today from buys last week.  Have made a decent chunk last two weeks on short term trades.  Done with that for a bit as I don’t trust the market right now.  I expect a bad stretch coming, but some buying opportunities in a couple weeks.  But what do I know....

Probably a good call closing out. I was tempted to go long Discover on Monday with the market looking ready to bounce, but I chickened out because I'm not a day trader and I'm generally very bearish. Anyway, classic bear market rally from the steepest crash ever.  We'll roll over and head to lower over the next few months, especially when it becomes clear we're not going to be reopening this country for a while. Large downgrades into junk going to put a lot of pressure on high yield soon too.

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The unemployment insurance “on steroids “ is trying to add 600$ to everyone approved for unemployment ( 600 additional across the board ) every week !

So, if you live in Florida ..and you are capped  at  288$  Per week You would see 888$ per week , in Mass. if you are capped at 700$ now you could see 1300$ weekly total.

Crazy.

 

 

 

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Also this three day stock rally may have lulled some to sleep...I don’t see how there is not a bigger leg down from here

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article66836.html.

I’ve said it since...the beginning . This  slowdown (is a sudden stop) this is a depression and the steepest Ever and we need to restart as many jobs as possible because the longer the stop the less of a economy will return .

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7 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Also this three day stock rally may have lulled some to sleep...I don’t see how there is not a bigger leg down from here

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article66836.html.

I’ve said it since...the beginning . This  slowdown (is a sudden stop) this is a depression and the steepest Ever and we need to restart as many jobs as possible because the longer the stop the less of a economy will return .

I was looking at some of the articles on that site.  Seemed a little on the edge.  Although I think the market goes down again soon.

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

I was looking at some of the articles on that site.  Seemed a little on the edge.  Although I think the market goes down again soon.

Yes , the owner of Market oracle links a wide variety. . 

John Mauldin who I linked is well read and known as level headed and certainly not an alarmist . The point is ..the unemployment is gonna be 30% and the longer it takes to return to work the less of an economy left to revive .

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12 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Completed trades today from buys last week.  Have made a decent chunk last two weeks on short term trades.  Done with that for a bit as I don’t trust the market right now.  I expect a bad stretch coming, but some buying opportunities in a couple weeks.  But what do I know....

What were some of your plays 

I have been going in and out of JNUG and TVIX , need a relaxed temperament with a liking of volatility for those lol

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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What were some of your plays 

I have been going in and out of JNUG and TVIX , need a relaxed temperament with a liking of volatility for those lol

PLNT CM ATCO

planet was the most volatile and just for fun but I got 30% in one day.

cm was a longer term play with a great dividend but the quick 20% and one quarterly dividend made me sell.  I will but again at some point for long term.

im in no way an expert on this 

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20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Yes , the owner of Market oracle links a wide variety. . 

John Mauldin who I linked is well read and known as level headed and certainly not an alarmist . The point is ..the unemployment is gonna be 30% 

And soon.  If you haven’t, consider reading “how the pandemic will end” in the Atlantic.  Very clear level-headed analysis

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

And soon.  If you haven’t, consider reading “how the pandemic will end” in the Atlantic.  Very clear level-headed analysis

I will and I liked their ice age piece last week regarding this and I will certainly read “How the pandemic will end “

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23 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, those who are wondering about the stimulus checks in the senate bill passed last night....here's what you need to know:

1. For full check, your tax return had to be 75k or less (150k for married couples). You get $1200 per person, or 2400 for couples....and an additional 500 per child. You get partial checks for earnings up to 99k per person (or 198k for couples)...fully phased out after those numbers.

2. The income thresholds are based on your 2019 tax return unless you didn't file yet, then they will use 2018. The income number is your adjusted gross income....not your total social security wages which is the number that most people think of their salary as.....so for example, if you make 85k per year, you might think you are only getting a partial check. But that's probably not true. You probably shelled out over 6k in medicare/social security taxes. You also probably contributed another 5-10k to your IRA. So your actual adjusted gross income was likely below 75k so you would get the full check. There's a few other things that come off too like interest paid on student loans, but you can look at line 7 on your 1040 to see the AGI number.

AGI has nothing to do with social security taxes, that make no sense, sorry.

The only time your federal wages are reduced on your w-2 is if you have pre-tax deductions say for heathcare, pension or 401k deductions. In these cases, your social security wages (and often state wages)would be higher, but your actual FICA payments do not redue your wages for your tax return.

if they are using AGI for the check, it is calculated using your federal taxable wages on your w-2, then adds taxable, interest, dividends, capital gains ( or subtracts losses up to 3k) etc, then adds or subtracts rental real estate income/losses then a host of other small items, this is your AGI for tax purposes. some people still itemize, so it would net that out too.

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