• Member Statistics

    15,849
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PaulG
    Newest Member
    PaulG
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
HoarfrostHubb

Coronavirus Economic/Financial/Jobs thread

Recommended Posts

37 minutes ago, Drop the Trough said:

The wildcard here is the announcement of a viable treatment to reduce symptoms, especially deadly. Not a vaccine per se, that’s down the road, but something that already exists in singular form or a cocktail. Like tamiflu for the flu.

 

I thought there  is...90% plus of all entering the hopsital who ALSO get to the critical stage...still are living.  So an Anti Viral is being used in those cases of Viral Pneumonia. That seemed pretty clear when i read an article.... and the overwhelming majority of those that get to that stage are immune suppressed  or elderly and in both cases more likely to be smokers. 

So while everyone is hiding in bunkers don't let your kids around nana. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There is...90% plus of all entering the hopsital who also get to the critical stage...still are living.  So an Anti Viral is being used

but how about for those not entering the hospital so they can get back to work etc and officials have the confidence that people who contract it can minimize and shorten the length of symptoms. Something like this would go a long way towards reducing panic and increasing acceptance that it's not an automatic death sentence for some. It seems incredibly contagious, minimizing the effects seems like a better strategy than trying to stop it by avoidance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Drop the Trough said:

but how about for those not entering the hospital so they can get back to work etc and officials have the confidence that people who contract it can minimize and shorten the length of symptoms. Something like this would go a long way towards reducing panic and increasing acceptance that it's not an automatic death sentence for some. It seems incredibly contagious, minimizing the effects seems like a better strategy than trying to stop it by avoidance.

that could probably start when someone is willing to put someone on tv where they admit the limitation of the very limited testing severely under represent the numerator (unless your very sick you are not tested) and thus drastically elevates the reported death rate.  So when people with influence decide the public will take this serious if they are SPOON fed this basic interpretation people will stop panicking. However the concern is will they still take it seriously and not go out if they are spoon fed this.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Charles Hugh Smith penned a new one that i'm hoping is wrong. 

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/

If you read to the end you will need a drink. I'm just hoping he is wrong...and my guess is he is. We need a whopper of a reflation and a whopper of a subsidation to everyone and everything unless we go back to work very quickly ( or this goes away,  or we bury it somehow )

Quote

 

Quote
This is why the repricing of speculative-bubble assets can't be stopped: debt-driven speculation is not a sustainable substitute for investing in increasing productivity, and debt-fueled consumption masquerading as "investment" is not a sustainable substitute for limiting consumption to what we earn and save.
All bubbles pop, period. Once Corporate America's credit lines are pulled and its revenues and profits plummet, the financial manipulation of stock buybacks will end. That spells the end of the 12-year bull market in stocks.
As the tide of speculative mania ebbs and confidence wanes, the world's housing bubbles will all pop, and the $1.4 million bungalows will drift back down to their Bubble #1 highs around $400,000, and perhaps even drop from there.
As for collectibles and other play-things of the super-wealthy: the bids will soon vanish and yachts will be set adrift to avoid paying the dock fees.

 

 

 

Quote
his is why it's imperative to go big now, and make plans to sustain the most vulnerable households and small employers not for two weeks but for six months--or however long proves necessary.
That governments around the world will be forced to distribute "helicopter money" to keep their people fed and housed and their economies from imploding is already a given. Closing all non-essential businesses and gatherings will crimp the livelihood of millions of households and small businesses that lack the financial resources to survive weeks without any revenues.
The only question is whether governments which can borrow or print fresh currency will get ahead of the implosion or fall behind, creating a binary choice: go big now or go home.
Half-measures in helicopter money work about as well as half-measures in quarantine, i.e. they fail to achieve the intended objectives. Dribbling out modest low-interest loans is a half-measure, as is cutting payroll taxes. Neither measure will help employees or small businesses whose income has fallen below the minimum needed to pay essential bills: rent, food, utilities, etc.
Meanwhile, the ruling elites will be under increasing pressure to bail out greedy financial elites and gamblers--the same scoundrels and parasites they bailed out in 2008-09. But this is not just another speculative bubble-pop, this is a matter of life and death and solvency for the masses of at-risk households and small businesses. It is a different zeitgeist and a different crisis, and bailing out greedy parasites (banks, indebted corporations, speculators, financiers, etc.) will not go over big while households and small businesses are going bankrupt.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

WTHF!!!  GS was at -10% for Q2 2 or 3 days ago.  The analysts have no way to figure this out.  Let's see if we can hold 15,000 by next Friday.

most dangerous thing ever for the economy. Ever.

24% down in 1 Quarter...i mean c'mon

9 Million more americans report being unemployed this week then last week.  Another record......to make a weather analogy...this issort of like if the record high in Boston was 62 for December 27'th and they hit 95F

Here is some *potential* GOOD news to HOPE for ... stem the rout, Help people live if they get this, and get some back to work (if they are comfortable)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-news-for-the-stock-market-would-be-any-potential-treatment-against-the-coronavirus-2020-03-20?mod=home-page

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

most dangerous thing ever for the economy. Ever.

24% down in 1 Quarter...i mean c'mon

9 Million more americans report being unemployed this week then last week.  Another record......to make a weather analogy...this issort of like if the record high in Boston was 62 for December 27'th and they hit 95F

Here is some *potential* GOOD news to HOPE for ... stem the rout, Help people live if they get this, and get some back to work (if they are comfortable)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-news-for-the-stock-market-would-be-any-potential-treatment-against-the-coronavirus-2020-03-20?mod=home-page

 

JPM estimates China GDP for Q1 is -40%. Incredible damage has and is being done to the global economy. Helicopter money and CBs throwing the kitchen sink at this may take a little off, but there is no avoiding a bad outcome in my opinion. Throw in record sovereign, state, corporate and personal debt and we've never been so vulnerable to a shock.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/19/2020 at 6:22 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Charles Hugh Smith penned a new one that i'm hoping is wrong. 

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/

If you read to the end you will need a drink. I'm just hoping he is wrong...and my guess is he is. We need a whopper of a reflation and a whopper of a subsidation to everyone and everything unless we go back to work very quickly ( or this goes away,  or we bury it somehow )

 

 

This is pretty good...a lot of people don’t understand how fast this is happening. This is like 2008 squared. We’re gonna go from 4% unemployment to like 20-25% in a matter of 2-4 weeks. That has never happened. 

For reference, 2008-2009 peaked at near 10% unemployment and it took months to get there. This is incredible speed. 

Helicopter money is the only thing fast enough to work. It’s too late to try and prop up small businesses and expand unemployment. Unemployment can take weeks to start kicking in...esp when they are backlogged like they will be in never seen before numbers. 

They need something quick that will keep bills paid. It’s like when they originally in 2008 needed to get toxic assets off the big bank’s books but buying them would take forever and be too slow. They needed direct cash injections into the market to stop the collapse from getting into Great Depression levels or worse.

In this case with coronavirus, it’s happening so fast, the only way you can save the economy is cash injections to the population. 

  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is pretty good...a lot of people don’t understand how fast this is happening. This is like 2008 squared. We’re gonna go from 4% unemployment to like 20-25% in a matter of 2-4 weeks. That has never happened. 

For reference, 2008-2009 peaked at near 10% unemployment and it took months to get there. This is incredible speed. 

Helicopter money is the only thing fast enough to work. It’s too late to try and prop up small businesses and expand unemployment. Unemployment can take weeks to start kicking in...esp when they are backlogged like they will be in never seen before numbers. 

They need something quick that will keep bills paid. It’s like when they originally in 2008 needed to get toxic assets off the big bank’s books but buying them would take forever and be too slow. They needed direct cash injections into the market to stop the collapse from getting into Great Depression levels or worse.

In this case with coronavirus, it’s happening so fast, the only way you can save the economy is cash injections to the population. 

I always have respected your financial analysis and seem to have similar fiscal views.  The full weight of the rapidness in this scenario will be incredibly heavy for unemployment.  I saw something like 2.25 million applying for unemployment in the past few days across the US?  You see every state in the news from Hawaii to Maine getting overwhelmed with unemployment claims.  This is crazy.  We've never seen anything like this before and it's just getting started.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Hoth said:

JPM estimates China GDP for Q1 is -40%. Incredible damage has and is being done to the global economy. Helicopter money and CBs throwing the kitchen sink at this may take a little off, but there is no avoiding a bad outcome in my opinion. Throw in record sovereign, state, corporate and personal debt and we've never been so vulnerable to a shock.

Maybe we will start to realize that when wealth is so unevenly distributed it creates vulnerability, and that when many are vulnerable we are all vulnerable.  Maybe it is time to stop co finally cutting taxes on wealthy people and corporations.  Maybe it is time to create amore robust and large middle class.  I am financially in a decent position but I don't know what to do about this but to vote for politicians who will address it more effectively.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I always have respected your financial analysis and seem to have similar fiscal views.  The full weight of the rapidness in this scenario will be incredibly heavy for unemployment.  I saw something like 2.25 million applying for unemployment in the past few days across the US?  You see every state in the news from Hawaii to Maine getting overwhelmed with unemployment claims.  This is crazy.  We've never seen anything like this before and it's just getting started.

Assuming this goes like 6 months, we’re probably talking at least 3 trillion in helicopter money (that would be the equivalent of about 15 grand per US adult in total over that 6 month period). And that would just merely keep things from collapsing to Great Depression levels. We’d still be in bad shape but at least people could pay their rent/mortgages and put food on the table with that. 

As ridiculous as that plan sounds, the alternatives are so much worse.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is pretty good...a lot of people don’t understand how fast this is happening. This is like 2008 squared. We’re gonna go from 4% unemployment to like 20-25% in a matter of 2-4 weeks. That has never happened. 

For reference, 2008-2009 peaked at near 10% unemployment and it took months to get there. This is incredible speed. 

Helicopter money is the only thing fast enough to work. It’s too late to try and prop up small businesses and expand unemployment. Unemployment can take weeks to start kicking in...esp when they are backlogged like they will be in never seen before numbers. 

They need something quick that will keep bills paid. It’s like when they originally in 2008 needed to get toxic assets off the big bank’s books but buying them would take forever and be too slow. They needed direct cash injections into the market to stop the collapse from getting into Great Depression levels or worse.

In this case with coronavirus, it’s happening so fast, the only way you can save the economy is cash injections to the population. 

You know Will ...finance has been a passion of mine since 2007 when the cracks began forming ...I would read hours every day for  a 2 year period , I joined many forums ...read many folks...learned about the fragility of the system ...just inherent with almost all monetary system forms as they grow older . I was very impressed with the way the financial engineers handled the crisis from the standpoint of creating a amazing reflation that grew at a rate that was sustainable (for a longer bull run ) and no particular asset class went parabolic (given all the liquidity ) and I was impressed . When I was younger I wanted the system to implode bc I didn’t like how it was run for greed and dis- proportionately for the wealthy.  Then I realized , despite all these “drawbacks “ that I would often hear about on some of the financial forums , that we have such an incredible intricate intertwined system that ..if it ever does destabilize and truly Collapse .(it can) the reorganization would certainly not be   better than we have now and the period of “adjustment “ would be horrific .

It took me about a week or so to wake up and refocus on finance  and the economy as this started unfolding ...and when I did it became frighteningly obvious how all those frailties in the system , in the world we take for granted could all be exposed at a frightening pace due to the nature of what was going on with demand and consumption in the environment of a leveraged over indebted system that is long in the tooth . ( and I want the damn can kicked)This is nothing that we have ever seen economically or financially and most folks measure what can happen by what they’ve seen or what they’ve read (Great Depression) and that there is some sort of fail Safe on the economy , on their standard of living and on the way people generally are law abiding citizens in a democratic state . 

“This”  threatens to wipe away all those illusions unless we restart the economy organically like China is doing ...People want to talk death tolls and pain ...they can’t quantify what they can’t imagine .

 

maybe I’m wrong we sure could use word of an amazing anti viral right now 

But I believe we need to do what it takes to do what it’s gonna take and I don’t know how long fiscal and direct stimulus measures to Joe citizen can substitute ( not in a way to thrive but in a way to not collapse ) the economy completely and bring about a very painful transition that lasts years 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your post is long pickles so I won’t quote it....

But you are right in that propping this up may not be possible if this goes too long. That is always a possibility. 

They can probably achieve it though if they really want to. The way they do it is almost total lockdown for a full 60-90 days. Now that’s gonna cost at least 3 trillion but it can work. You send cash direct injections to people while the virus burns itself out. That’s the only way. I’m just not sure we pull the trigger on lockdown fast and hard enough...it’s against the spirit of the constitution and our free way of life. So you can understand the hesitation in doing it.

If this goes on for more than 6-8 months, the government won’t be able to afford it...and then all the dominoes come crashing down one after the other. It would make the Great Recession look like a speed bump...and honestly might make the Great Depression look not so bad. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Your post is long pickles so I won’t quote it....

But you are right in that propping this up may not be possible if this goes too long. That is always a possibility. 

They can probably achieve it though if they really want to. The way they do it is almost total lockdown for a full 60-90 days. Now that’s gonna cost at least 3 trillion but it can work. You send cash direct injections to people while the virus burns itself out. That’s the only way. I’m just not sure we pull the trigger on lockdown fast and hard enough...it’s against the spirit of the constitution and our free way of life. So you can understand the hesitation in doing it.

If this goes on for more than 6-8 months, the government won’t be able to afford it...and then all the dominoes come crashing down one after the other. It would make the Great Recession look like a speed bump...and honestly might make the Great Depression look not so bad. 

Edited

The Goldman estimate or 24 GDP contraction is a glass of espresso for many or should be .

This is going to be a depression by depth ...the question is duration ...and ya I don’t know how they could keep things “propped up from destabilizing “ for 6-9 months if we aren’t working ... if they really wanted to I don’t believe that they could ( Without you know that little thing called a work force ) if they manage to reflate the asset markets then all else is possible but I don’t believe they can .The only way is if the market was given a DATE of a return to WORK (Demand /Consumption/ Employment returning that it believes and the forward looking market would price that in ! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Edited

The Goldman estimate or 24 GDP contraction is a glass of espresso for many or should be .

This is going to be a depression by depth ...the question is duration ...and ya I don’t know how they could keep things “propped up from destabilizing “ for 6-9 months if we aren’t working ... if they really wanted to I don’t believe that they could ( Without you know that little thing called a work force ) if they manage to reflate the asset markets then all else is possible but I don’t believe they can .The only way is if the market was given a DATE of a return to WORK (Demand /Consumption/ Employment returning that it believes and the forward looking market would price that in ! 

Completely agree...markets can deal with positives and negatives, but they hate uncertainty.  The fear and the unknown is the problem.  If the American people had a believable date that was a few months away, and we saw how this could all be realistically propped up until then, and a shred of confidence returned, we could buy some time until the biotech geniuses do their thing.  I am, by far, not an expert on this but is it possible that as we plow further toward the summer weather, the heat and humidity does its natural thing as it does with influenza and we get a long enough break to solve this.  Just a guess and maybe hope..I do know that the panic is the worst enemy of the economy right now.  We will get through this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Completely agree...markets can deal with positives and negatives, but they hate uncertainty.  The fear and the unknown is the problem.  If the American people had a believable date that was a few months away, and we saw how this could all be realistically propped up until then, and a shred of confidence returned, we could buy some time until the biotech geniuses do their thing.  I am, by far, not an expert on this but is it possible that as we plow further toward the summer weather, the heat and humidity does its natural thing as it does with influenza and we get a long enough break to solve this.  Just a guess and maybe hope..I do know that the panic is the worst enemy of the economy right now.  We will get through this.

The panic is not only bc of this but it won’t be resolved Till this ( a date for the resumption of the economy is given or believed to be soon ) ya ..kinda of a important detail lol  

i believe some sort of anti viral breakthrough or belief of one could turn the tide quickly (this would be one heck of a buying opportunity)

If we don’t see these Things  or until we do ...we will price in a mix of depression and insolvency and all that goes with not having an economy until that occurs , it will zig zag wildly and panic down IF we start pricing in the duration a bit longer or the depth deeper and also bonds will begin pricing in a very slow recovery ..the longer we are out of work ...

  it’s honestly amazing potential for volatility every day until then 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

or we Bounce  3K to families 4 trillion to feds to leverage .... to financial sector. That 4 trillion won't flow downhill to stocks thou with no revenue or spending in site...it has to flow somewhere thou?

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-mnuchin/virus-aid-bill-includes-3000-for-families-4-trillion-liquidity-for-fed-mnuchin-idUSKBN2190LL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/20/2020 at 8:57 PM, bch2014 said:

My company is hiring 6,000 people (both temp and permanent)... PM me and I can send you a link.

Can you post this in the Corona thread

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a historic and timely move by the fed 

unprecedented and clearly just announced they will do anything to support markets 

they will buy all assets classes and as much as needed 

inflate or die ...they choose to live only issue is this doesn’t generate business activity or people back to work 

market is saying we need an economy 

conditions are in place for a huge rally if we go back to work 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First time in my 20 year career I'll be filing for (voluntary) unemployment Friday. We're trying to save our small business by shutting it down.  

Customers aren't paying us.  Their customers aren't paying them.  This is unprecedented. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, amarshall said:

First time in my 20 year career I'll be filing for (voluntary) unemployment Friday. We're trying to save our small business by shutting it down.  

Customers aren't paying us.  Their customers aren't paying them.  This is unprecedented. 

Sorry to hear that.  Best of luck on a speedy recovery once we get back to normal.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What a historic and timely move by the fed 

unprecedented and clearly just announced they will do anything to support markets 

they will buy all assets classes and as much as needed 

inflate or die ...they choose to live only issue is this doesn’t generate business activity or people back to work 

market is saying we need an economy 

conditions are in place for a huge rally if we go back to work 

s&p over 3500 by year end?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing FED actions did yesterday was it lowered the historic volatility and helped the stability of the system which is huge 

VIX index fell premarket when FED action was taken and the key was even thou stocks fell significantly lower during the day * volatility continued to lower * bc the fed backstopped the stability of functional markets (bc that was at risk ) ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stimulus package nearing completion. Sounds like it’ll be 2 trillion or a little higher. 

They probably need it to be 3 but at least this will be quite a bit more robust than the original one trillion. 

The bigger question still remains is how long will the economy stay frozen. We don’t know. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.