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Severe Weather March 15-19


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Storm initiation seemed to happen south of where the forecast guidance (HRRR for the forecast reflectivity) on SPC mesoanalysis suggested it would be.  This could mean that there is more of a concern for DFW down the line if these cells hold together, considering the HRRR guidance suggested that these initial supercells around Abilene would wind up northwest of DFW.  If you extrapolate the forecasted motion from the model then these storms could end up going across the northern DFW metro area.

EDIT: I'm watching that supercell SW of Cisco for sure.  It has unimpeded inflow and is trying to develop a hook.  I am concerned about this storm following the I-20 corridor.

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It seems like the expected uptick in helicity is now taking place.  We are going to need to watch these highlighted areas (among others) for the possible development of low-level rotation.  I also marked the portion of that line south of Abilene given the higher EHI there; this will probably be where any severe thunderstorm threat for the Metroplex would come from later tonight (unless something forms ahead of that).

EFFA954B-CBB1-40EE-96B1-EF55F34FE88A.png

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
752 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHERN CALLAHAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL SHACKELFORD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  EAST CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 751 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER POTOSI, OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE, MOVING  
  NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  EULA AROUND 755 PM CDT.  
  CLYDE AROUND 805 PM CDT.  
  BAIRD AROUND 810 PM CDT.                          Good call, Brandon!

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Just now, 1900hurricane said:

I suspect the anvil rain from the upstream storms is keeping that lead cell from going off more than it already has.

Unfortunately those storms west of Mineral Wells are outside of the anvil rain.  I am very concerned about intensification as those storms approach the DFW area.  Given current storm motions, those storms will impact the Metroplex unless they fall apart first.

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uh oh

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1144 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

TXC431-190500-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200319T0500Z/
Sterling TX-
1144 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
NORTHERN STERLING COUNTY...

At 1142 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near Sterling City, moving northeast at 45 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northern Sterling County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3209 10107 3209 10099 3197 10082 3186 10082
      3172 10109 3182 10119
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 235DEG 39KT 3182 10105

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.00IN
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ww0055_radar_big.gif

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 55
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1140 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     West Central Texas

   * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1140
     PM until 500 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms will spread across the
   watch area overnight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. 
   A few of the storms may also pose a risk of a tornado or two.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Abilene TX to 55
   miles south southwest of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 54...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
   storm motion vector 24035.

   ...Hart
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1154 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Coke County in west central Texas...
  East central Sterling County in west central Texas...

* Until 1245 AM CDT.

* At 1153 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
  near Sterling City, moving northeast at 45 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Silver around 1220 AM CDT.
  Sanco around 1230 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include The
Intersection Of Highway 158 And Ranch Road 2059.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
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I'm starting to get concerned about the track of the current tornado-warned storm.  It will be getting pretty close to (or even go through part of) Abilene if it continues on its present track.

EDIT: Abilene is now included in a Tornado Warning.  Fortunately it says the tornado is radar-indicated (and not the strong wording seen back at Sterling City), although it is late at night and hard to spot as a result, so this warning still needs to be taken very seriously.

EDIT 2: KTXS reports power flashes north of Tye.

EDIT 3: Rotation moved near Impact/northernmost Abilene area.  Hamby and the state prison facilities to the north (French Robertson and John Middleton Units) are now in the path of this possible tornado.  Not a very populated area aside from the prisons.

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