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Ok so had to do a little digging for this and just use dates that I could find matching hospitalizations and total case numbers for. As of November 18, there had been 906,849 Covid hospitalizations in the U.S. compared to a confirmed 11.5 million cases for a hospitalization rate of 7.8%. However, dozens of studies suggest an undercount of 3-4x total cases at this time, which would support an overall hospitalization rate of 2.6% to 1.9%. I'd like to be able to break that down by age but am having a hard time finding the raw data. 

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Lol yeah. They do an estimate for age groups. 65+ is about 20 percent. 

Not surprising since they make up close to 50% of hospitalizations.... its scary for that age group.

I would have guessed 1-2% hospitalization rate overall so definitely fits my bias of underestimating it. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I believe this is our plateau week. Next week starts the permanent down turn. By end of May pretty much anyone that wants a shot will have gotten one, only group that we're still waiting on is the 17 and under crowd.

lol.

Some people just can't help themselves. 

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It look like the surge in Michigan is also impacting production at one of Stellantis' assembly plants outside of Detroit.

Not only did they fall short of their production goals, but according to a report in Bloomberg, 630 workers either tested positive for COVID-19 or are under quarantine.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/chrysler/2021/04/16/ram-truck-plant-sterling-heights-covid-19-surge-production/7255441002/

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Fauci stated when cases get to under 10k a day things can go back to complete normalcy.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, pressed by a Republican lawmaker Thursday over when Americans will "get their liberties back," gave his clearest explanation yet as to when COVID-19 restrictions could be safely lifted, saying the U.S. must get its infection rate under 10,000 new cases a day.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fauci-clashes-gop-lawmaker-covid-restrictions-eased/story?id=77097089

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What do you mean?

There are still places within the US in the midst of a surge. Plus, the scientific community still doesn't know what effects (if any) emerging variants will have going forward.

https://scitechdaily.com/new-covid-variants-have-changed-the-game-and-vaccines-will-not-be-enough/

So say "next week starts the permanent turn down" is premature and presumptuous 

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Just now, Powerball said:

There are still places within the US in the midst of a surge. Plus, the scientific community still doesn't know what effects (if any) emerging variants will have going forward.

https://scitechdaily.com/new-covid-variants-have-changed-the-game-and-vaccines-will-not-be-enough/

So say "next week starts the permanent turn down" is premature presumptuous 

Just being a little optimistic. I'm hopeful as I expected a plateau in mid/late April and a general steady decline into summer.

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6 minutes ago, Powerball said:

There are still places within the US in the midst of a surge. Plus, the scientific community still doesn't know what effects (if any) emerging variants will have going forward.

https://scitechdaily.com/new-covid-variants-have-changed-the-game-and-vaccines-will-not-be-enough/

So say "next week starts the permanent turn down" is premature presumptuous 

 

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just being a little optimistic. I'm hopeful as I expected a plateau in mid/late April and a general steady decline into summer.

Hopefully, baring any breakthrough variants,  this could be the beginning of the end of this pandemic here in the United States. 

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1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

Hopefully, baring any breakthrough variants,  this could be the beginning of the end of this pandemic here in the United States. 

We know the easiest way to prevent this thing from continuing to potentially mutate into variants that are vaccine-resistant, if people would just do that.

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just being a little optimistic. I'm hopeful as I expected a plateau in mid/late April and a general steady decline into summer.

Something is really wrong if we don't decline into summer.  

I would disagree with the idea of it being a permanent downturn, as I have a hard time believing there won't be any increase again as we get into fall/winter.  But the good news is that the starting point will be much lower this time.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Something is really wrong if we don't decline into summer.  

I would disagree with the idea of it being a permanent downturn, as I have a hard time believing there won't be any increase again as we get into fall/winter.  But the good news is that the starting point will be much lower this time.

I agree. 

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5 hours ago, WaryWarren said:

India going for the spike. Poland, Brazil and Hungary are maintaining theirs.

Actually, much of central/eastern Europe is seeing a significant downturn in cases. The worldwide average is still spiking primarily due to India. India has effectively lost control of the situation there. Delhi yesterday had 25,000 cases w/30% positivity! I am guessing people there started to buy into the "natural herd immunity" idea or that they had stronger immune systems due to more exposure to other pathogens.

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25% of Americans fully vaccinated against coronavirus, CDC says

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/18/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html

(CNN)The United States has reached another important milestone in the race to protect its population against the coronavirus, with more than a quarter of Americans now fully vaccinated against Covid-19.

More than 84 million people -- roughly 25.4% of the population -- have been fully vaccinated, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data released Sunday.

The CDC says more than 129 million Americans have received at least one Covid-19 vaccine dose, or roughly 39.5% of the total US population.

As of Monday, all people in the US 16 years and older will be eligible to receive a vaccine.

Experts estimate somewhere between 70-85% of the country needs to be immune to the virus -- either through inoculation or previous infection -- to suppress its spread.

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3 hours ago, Powerball said:

25% of Americans fully vaccinated against coronavirus, CDC says

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/18/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html

 

 

The last paragraph that you highlighted and underlined should be qualified further. 

Experts estimate 70-85% of people need to become immune to the virus through infection or vaccination to prevent spread without any mitigation measures.

Again we are already seeing the beginning of a downturn but are nowhere near the 70-85% number. If you take that paragraph literally then there's no way we would have any of the downturns that we've seen.  I feel very confident that the downturn over the next 3 months driven by seasonal changes and vaccination rates will be the largest we've seen thus far.  Dr. Fauci suggests that we can lift all restrictions if the national cases get to below 10,000 cases per day, I bet we get there by the end of June.

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I see some people are still misconstruing what Dr. Fauci actually said. 

To be clear, what he said was:

1. New infections need to fall not just below 10K cases per day, but *WELL* below 10K cases per day.

2. Once new cases per day are *WELL* below 10K, there could be a  *GRADUAL* pull back of *SOME* restrictions. 

He also stressed that the nation till has a lot of work to do before it reaches that point.

For those who want to read his actual words that were quoted, see the link below:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fauci-clashes-gop-lawmaker-covid-restrictions-eased/story?id=77097089

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22 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

The last paragraph that you highlighted and underlined should be qualified further. 

Experts estimate 70-85% of people need to become immune to the virus through infection or vaccination to prevent spread without any mitigation measures.

Again we are already seeing the beginning of a downturn but are nowhere near the 70-85% number. If you take that paragraph literally then there's no way we would have any of the downturns that we've seen.  I feel very confident that the downturn over the next 3 months driven by seasonal changes and vaccination rates will be the largest we've seen thus far.  Dr. Fauci suggests that we can lift all restrictions if the national cases get to below 10,000 cases per day, I bet we get there by the end of June.

It's very possible we could get down that low and I hope we do but not likely 

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1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

It's very possible we could get down that low and I hope we do but not likely 

The 7 day average of reported cases will probably get below 10k well before the end of June, want to make a friendly wager?

If 7 day average of cases are below 10k before July 1st, you don't post in this thread for all of July and August,  if it never gets below that level I will do the same. 

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6 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

The 7 day average of reported cases will probably get below 10k well before the end of June, want to make a friendly wager?

If 7 day average of cases are below 10k before July 1st, you don't post in this thread for all of July and August,  if it never gets below that level I will do the same. 

Idk about the risk/reward on that lol.  You are a very valuable contributor in this thread with your medical background.  

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7 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

The 7 day average of reported cases will probably get below 10k well before the end of June, want to make a friendly wager?

If 7 day average of cases are below 10k before July 1st, you don't post in this thread for all of July and August,  if it never gets below that level I will do the same. 

I cant make a bet like that. Lol. I am hoping that you are right 

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