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26 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

One thing I wonder is where do we go when we have vaccines for everyone but not everyone choses to get the vaccine.  I think we will end up with 20% not taking it for whatever reason (valid or not).  I really am hoping to not start the fall school year with mandatory masks.  

I think masks will still be worn through next winter in public settings.

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48 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

It is over

At the very least would think mask usage may come back over the winter due to the success it had with depressing flu and other respiratory viruses. Seems to have caught on in Asia for years now.

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11 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

I'm sure there are some states that will hang on to the mandates longer than others.  

Agree.  This entire pandemic has seen varying regulations across the states so there's no reason to think every state will end the mask mandates at the same time.

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1 hour ago, Speedskater said:

The 70% number was based on COVID-19 a year ago.  The newer variants may push that number above 85%

Good point. I don't think the new variants are nearly as deadly or require hospitalizations nearly as much. Might be too soon to say that but from what we've seen so far a valid hypothesis. 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Good point. I don't think the new variants are nearly as deadly or require hospitalizations nearly as much. Might be too soon to say that but from what we've seen so far a valid hypothesis. 

I think it depends who you are talking about.  For unvaccinated people, there is not much pointing toward the variants being milder, and if anything they may be worse.

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In terms of vaccines and public health restrictions,  my opinion is that after the supply catches up to meet the demand and everyone that chooses to be vaccinated gets vaccinated, at that point there should be little if any government imposed restrictions. At that point Darwin can take over for the anti-vaxers.

At the same time I also think it's completely reasonable for companies and states to provide favorable treatment to vaccinated individuals.  For example Hawaii is discussing getting rid of mandatory quarantines or required negative covid tests for travelers arriving more than 14 days after their second covid vaccine dose.

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I've previously posted that we will likely see hospitalizations and deaths continue to plummet even if the decline in cases slows down because of the vaccine effect. There's evidence that this is already happening.  For the entire pandemic deaths in long term care facilities have made up 30-40% of the total deaths every week.  In the last few weeks this number has been declining and is down to 18% see the article and tweet below. Note that New York and Missouri were excluded from the analysis because of large undated dumps of deaths recently.  I'm not sure why Arizona was excluded. 

The number of lives that the vaccines will save is incredible. 

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47 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

 First off hope that is correct.Based on 59.5 million vaccines administered and 28 million documented covid cases would think a decent percentage of people still susceptible. The wildcard is how many undocumented mild or asymptomatic cases are there?2x,4x,5x the number of known cases? Also there's overlap between people vaccinated but also already having had covid lowering totals. Hard to gauge what the real percentage of susceptible population still exists. Also some of the recent sharp declines in new cases have weather related closures of testing sites playing a role.

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2 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

It is somewhat possible especially since America has had such a high infection rate.  That combined with vaccine rollout could do the trick. The wildcard will be the variant and how fast we can get the world vaccinated 

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