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Am guessing the drop in cases is a combination a couple of things:

1. Coming off a time period where accelerated transmission was occurring due to holiday gatherings,

2. Partial herd immunity due to virus having infected a significant percentage of those unable/unwilling to avoid exposure risk, while those are able/willing to protect themselves remain harder for the virus to infect.

If you relax things too much before sufficient vaccination occurs, especially in winter, spikes in cases will probably occur. I Think once Spring comes infection rates are going to very low, assuming nothing like rapid spread of a variant with high rates of reinfection/vaccine bypass happens.

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

New poll on vaccine support shows more resistance in younger age groups and Republicans/people who voted for Trump.

https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/less-40-percent-trump-voters-174038879.html

Said it before, but it would be beneficial to see now former pres Trump get vaccinated on camera.  Whether or not he has lingering immunity from being infected in October, it would send a message and may sway some people.

Say we get to 50, 60, 70% of America being vaccinated.  If there's pockets/regions of the country that are running behind the national average, then there's always going to be festering clusters of this thing.  Gotta hope the variants don't start getting around the vaccines as well.  I would think if the vaccines need to be tweaked in the future that they wouldn't have to go through all the trial phases again, but not sure.

Based on the data - if you have 50-60% vaccination then I would think that that plus immunity would put you close to 70%, assuming some of those vaccinated have also had covid.  

 

As the average continues to tick toward 1 million vaccinations per day, the 100 million in 100 days should be easily attainable, but then again that is less than 20% of the population.  

 

Now 100 million fully vaccinated in 100 days would be THE goal.

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Anything is possible but I'd be surprised if the mask mandates are gone everywhere by May.  I think a lot more states could have them pulled back by then though (we already see that in North Dakota).  Some governors will probably be slower to end them.  Also have to keep in mind that the big box stores, etc. have their own mask rules, so there could be some inconsistencies even as the governors pull back.
The sociological aspect of all this will be fascinating to watch.  Once the mandates end, will some people choose to continue to wear one?  Also, if cases start to rise again after the mask mandates end, will there be a quick reaction by governors to do another mask mandate or will they ride it out?

I’ve worn one since March and plan to until vaccinated.

I think we’re seeing as a society the side effects now if prolonged isolation. Deaths are off the charts and no one seems to care. Hard to honestly when you’re not interacting with the world much.
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9 hours ago, nwohweather said:


I’ve worn one since March and plan to until vaccinated.

I've worn my mask indoors and been out and about and have been dining inside at least once or twice per week.  I'm also in K-12 education around several thousand of student and staff. We have been in school since August when the school year began.  I also vacationed out of state in the fall.  

I think my secret to not getting sick at all throughout has been good hygiene, some social distancing mask wearing, and a regiment of vitamins taken twice daily.  

Elderberry Gummies - 260mg Sambucus, Vitamin C and Zinc
D3 - 50 mcg
C - 1000 mg
B12 1000 mcg
Nature Made Men's Multivitamin + Omega-3 Gummies
Benadryl Alergy

I did direct work with three people who have large families and play sports who did catch the virus and exhibit symptoms so I'm doing something right.  

I'm hoping for a vaccine for school staff come soon.  I'm just a few months away from the age 60 cut off in Indiana.

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Sad news about Hank Aaron.  

Why am I bringing him up?  On his twitter page, he posted a picture of himself receiving his first dose of the covid vaccine on January 5, and the story was reported on at the time.  

No cause of death has been released yet, and I don't know what his health was, but it will be important to find out why he died especially with being a high profile person and since there have been some stories of old/frail deaths after receiving the vaccine.  People in their 80s die all the time though.

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7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Sad news about Hank Aaron.  

Why am I bringing him up?  On his twitter page, he posted a picture of himself receiving his first dose of the covid vaccine on January 5, and the story was reported on at the time.  

No cause of death has been released yet, and I don't know what his health was, but it will be important to find out why he died especially with being a high profile person and since there have been some stories of old/frail deaths after receiving the vaccine.  People in their 80s die all the time though.

Dang, didn't know that.

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17 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

:guitar:"Yesterday we saw our largest raw drop in hospitalizations during the pandemic…until today. Hospitalizations dropped by 3685 today, which brought the 7-day average to its lowest point in January."

As someone who loves history & weather, this is the thing that fascinated me with the 1918-19 pandemic. Once herd immunity was reached it almost completely stopped on a dime as it mutated weaker according to experts.

I'm sure the real number is much higher than 25 million cases so a combination of that & vaccines will probably lead to a sharp decline in the coming months

 

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24 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

Looks like a couple of weeks until Johnson and Johnson gets approval of its single dose vaccine.  Super easy storage requirements will be a plus too.

https://nypost.com/2021/01/23/fauci-johnson-johnson-covid-vaccine-may-get-approval-in-2-weeks/ 

Adding a third vaccine to the mix should really help boost the vaccination efforts

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2 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

Looks like a couple of weeks until Johnson and Johnson gets approval of its single dose vaccine.  Super easy storage requirements will be a plus too.

https://nypost.com/2021/01/23/fauci-johnson-johnson-covid-vaccine-may-get-approval-in-2-weeks/ 

I'm hearing its up to 90 percent effective. Very good news indeed 

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1 hour ago, chances14 said:

Adding a third vaccine to the mix should really help boost the vaccination efforts

The less stringent storage requirements and single dose will help to significantly increase the speed of immunizations. Also a much more viable vaccine for the development world.

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Some concerns have come up with regard to vaccine effectiveness on the mutations.  Unfortunately, there isn't enough evidence to support either outcome.  

 

Initially it was said that the European strain was more contagious but not more deadly, now we are hearing that may not be the case.  Again, not enough evidence to support either as it is hard to know how long this has persisted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/uk-variant-covid-mortality/2021/01/22/86023180-5cd6-11eb-a849-6f9423a75ffd_story.html

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Been trying to stay out of this discussion as I'm biased.  I've been dealing with this virus, it's repercussions or whatever for 8 months.  It's real for me.  I lost one of my best friends last spring to it, lost my stepfather after a 5 week battle last week to it.  I can't go more than 2 or 3 weeks without something being wrong and trust me, I'm no whiner.  It's been 15 years since I even had the flu.  You're not making a statement by not wearing a mask other than you're a selfish POS.  Seriously, I'm sick of the excuses.  Is it so much to ask if you go into a store to simply lift a bandana over your face at the very least?  Those that refuse are as guilty as drunk drivers as far as I'm concerned.

Some may get this, some won't.  Those that do are already masking up, those that don't get this WEAR A FREAKIN MASK!!

 

 

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14 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Been trying to stay out of this discussion as I'm biased.  I've been dealing with this virus, it's repercussions or whatever for 8 months.  It's real for me.  I lost one of my best friends last spring to it, lost my stepfather after a 5 week battle last week to it.  I can't go more than 2 or 3 weeks without something being wrong and trust me, I'm no whiner.  It's been 15 years since I even had the flu.  You're not making a statement by not wearing a mask other than you're a selfish POS.  Seriously, I'm sick of the excuses.  Is it so much to ask if you go into a store to simply lift a bandana over your face at the very least?  Those that refuse are as guilty as drunk drivers as far as I'm concerned.

Some may get this, some won't.  Those that do are already masking up, those that don't get this WEAR A FREAKIN MASK!!

 

Couldn't agree more.  I am sorry to hear that you are dealing with this.  If you don't mind talking about it, what has been going on with the residuals you are feeling?  Understand if you don't want to talk about it - I think the psychological effect of we'll all be dealing with more so long term.

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Continuing to get good nationwide drops in cases, positivity and hospitalizations. Hospital numbers are -20% off peak now. Deaths should follow after about another week. the numbers are just so high it is going to take time to get it down. Assuming a slighter better CFR as we vaccinate more LTC residents I think that number will be down  to ~2200-2300/day in mid. Feb based on current case numbers.

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6 hours ago, dan11295 said:

Continuing to get good nationwide drops in cases, positivity and hospitalizations. Hospital numbers are -20% off peak now. Deaths should follow after about another week. the numbers are just so high it is going to take time to get it down. Assuming a slighter better CFR as we vaccinate more LTC residents I think that number will be down  to ~2200-2300/day in mid. Feb based on current case numbers.

Vaccines are already having a big impact 

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6 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We are seeing amazing drops in hospitalizations. Down to 110k. Again very good news

Basically every state is seeing steady drops here as of late last week. Should see significant downturn in deaths within 2 weeks. At this point the only thing IMHO that prevents case numbers from dropping to very low levels by April-May is rapid growth of variant with ability to significantly bypass current immunity/vaccine. This doesn't seem to be an issue with the "UK" one at least. Just saw a Report the Moderna vaccine is effective against the SA variant as well. The main danger with these variants is case number falls could be delayed if people let up on protective measures (masks/large gathering reduction) too quickly before significant immunizations occur due to higher transmission rates. Important to keep watching virus evolution. 

Right now I am optimistic about a somewhat normal summer, probably minus very large (100+) indoor social gatherings or packed theatres/concert halls.

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